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In mid-March primary support for the L-NP Government rose 1% to 44% - 2.4% below the result at the October 2004 Federal election.  Primary support for the ALP was down 1% to 38.5% - 0.9% higher than their result at the 2004 Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties are allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%; L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be L-NP — 51% (up 3.5% in a month since mid-February) and ALP — 49% (down 3.5% from mid February). Had a Federal election been held in mid-March, the L-NP would have won a close election.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 1%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, now 69% (up 3%) think the L-NP will win, 20.5% (down 2.5%) think the ALP will win and 10.5% (down 0.5%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“The public undermining of Kim Beazley’s leadership by Simon Crean and Julia Gillard concerned many voters: primary support for Labor is down 1% to 38.5% while support for the L-NP was up 1% to 44%.

On a two-party preferred basis support for the Howard Government is up 1% to 51% this is a 3.5% increase since mid-February. Importantly, 69% of voters think the Coalition will win the next election, 20.5% believe it will be Labor and 10.5% can’t say who will win.”

During the period:

• The Labor Party was dogged by factional in-fighting following pre-selection battles in Victoria — whilst some sitting members lost pre-selection, former leader Simon Crean successfully fought off a union-backed challenger. Some believe Julia Gillard is positioning herself as future leader after calling for the ALP to remove the power of the factions.
• The AWB scandal continued to plague the Government, with PM John Howard having to deny allegations that he lied to the Australian public.  However, Labor’s Kevin Rudd, who made the allegations, did not back down from his comments: “John Howard’s defence is he failed to join the dots…I’ve never called the PM a liar before and I use the term precisely and intentionally.”
• US Secretary-of-State Condoleezza Rice made an official visit to Australia.  She thanked Australia for its support in the ‘war on terror’ and emphasised the shared values between the two countries.
• Mike Rann’s South Australian Labor Government and Paul Lennon’s Tasmanian Labor Government were re-elected, both to govern in their own right.  During their campaigns, Labor used the Federal Government’s industrial relations reforms as a major sticking point.  Prime Minister Howard dismissed any suggestions that this played a role in the result: “That is just a piece of spin and propaganda invented after the result.”  He instead pointed to state Premier’s using the Federal Government’s economic success to their political advantage.
• Protests marked the third anniversary of the Iraq war.  Civil unrest and violence continues to plague coalition forces, as the Government continues to defend its policy against a growing voice of public concern and dissent.
• The 18th Commonwealth Games began in Melbourne. 

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on March 11/12 and 18/19, 2006.

L-NP supporters continued to be impressed with John Howard’s strong leadership of the party and the stability that has come with it.  Common themes among the responses included: “I think John Howard is doing a good job.  I think we have come a long way and I don’t like or trust Kim Beazley”, “Better leadership and direction with my choice.  Other side doesn’t have strong leadership and doesn’t seem to have much of an alternative” and “At the moment Beazley is not ready.  Howard is doing a good job.”

It is widely felt by L-NP supporters that the Opposition lacks credibility, which was most recently evident by the public spat between rival party factions: “The ALP is in such total disarray”, “In regard to terrorism I feel safe with the L-NP.  The ALP is totally disorganised” and “The ALP is too wishy-washy.  They have no projects.  They are dictated to by unions.  They have no foresight in administration.”

Conversely, ALP supporters continue to be concerned with, and alienated by, recent Government policy: “Ever since the GST and other policies we are working harder and harder and not getting anywhere”, “I am concerned about the Government regarding IR policy and the direction they are leading Australia (US Alliance)” and “The Government is getting too comfortable.  They need to be listening to people rather than driving their own policies.”

The social policies and working-class roots of the ALP also appealed to many voters.  Comments included: “They (ALP) are more approachable and come to the people to check ideas and attitudes”, “Out of the two major parties the ALP is the one that aligns itself best with my social conscience.  This country is becoming more about those that have and those that haven’t and the Labor Party have the most potential to reduce that ever-widening gap” and “Their (ALP) policies are in line with my world view — social equality, social capital and infrastructure development.  The ALP’s more about our society, cohesion.”

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 11/12 and 18/19, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,044 electors.  Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”  Of all electors surveyed, 3% (down 2.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:        Office (03) 9224 5213     Mobile  0411 129 094    Home (03) 9419 3242

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 2,044 electors interviewed face-to-face on March 11/12, & 18/19 2006 - 3% (down 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

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