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More than twice as many Australian voters think John Howard (61%) would make a better Prime Minister than Kim Beazley (26%) a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. Yet, only 49% of voters approved of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister, 44% of voters disapproved of the way My Howard was handling his job and 7% couldn’t say. This is the lowest approval rating and the highest disapproval rating for Mr Howard since August 2004 —before the last Federal election.

My Beazley’s approval rating of 29% is the lowest approval rating of an Opposition Leader since Simon Crean was Leader of the Opposition - 26% in May and June 2003 and only the second lowest of any Labor Opposition Leader. More than twice as many voters disapprove (62%) of Mr Beazley’s performance as Opposition Leader than approve of it (29%) while 9% couldn’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“These approval ratings will not make pleasant reading for either John Howard or Kim Beazley. Mr Howard may well be the better Prime Minister for 61% of voters but with an approval rating of only 49% the lowest since before his 2004 Federal election win, this is a hollow victory.

Kim Beazley’s approval ratings are the lowest he has ever received and only Simon Crean has received worse as a Labor Opposition Leader.

A Morgan Poll released today looks at voters’ preferences to lead both main political parties —it makes very interesting reading!”

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30, 2006 with an Australia-wide cross section of 898 men and women aged 14 and over. More details are available on a subscription basis.

• 1. - Better Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Beazley. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Beazley?”

Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was highest amongst L-NP supporters (93%) followed by Australian Democrats (49%) voters and Independent and other candidates supporters (44%). Support for Mr Beazley was highest amongst ALP supporters (48%) followed by Greens (44%) and Australian Democrats (41%) supporters.

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar			Aust	The	Ind/	No
	2005	2005	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	93	36	49	31	44	33
Beazley	33	30	26	3	48	41	44	26	-
Someone else	6	6	1	1	-	-	4	5	-
Can't say	4	5	12	3	16	10	21	25	67
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was marginally higher amongst women (61%) than men (60%) and highest of all with voters aged 50 and over. Support for Mr Beazley was the same amongst men and women (both 26%) and highest amongst those aged 35-49.

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan	Sep	Mar
	2005	2005	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	60	61	61	59	57	64
Beazley	33	30	26	26	26	23	24	31	24
Someone else	6	6	1	1	1	4	1	-	1
Can't say	4	5	12	13	12	12	16	12	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

 

Long-term trend for Better Prime Minister, since 2001

	12/13 Sept, 2001	Sept 15/16, 2001	Sept, 2002^	April 23, 2003^	May 20-22, 2003^	June 4-5, 2003^	Sep 15-17 2003	Dec 03, 2003*	June 2/3, 2004*	June 30/July 1 2004*	Aug4/8 2004*
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	53	64	57	71	71	73	57	61.5	50	55	58
Beazley	31	23	25	15	19	16	25	25	38	34	34
Other/Can't Say	16	13	18	14	10	11	18	13.5	12	11	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	Aug 11/12 2004*	Aug 18/19 2004*	Sept 1/2 2004*	Sept 15/16 2004*	Sept 22/23 2004*	Sept 29/30 2004*	Oct 7/8 2004*	Nov 3/4 2004*	Jan 19/20 2005	Sept 21/22 2005
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	49	51	49	53	57	54	62	57	59
Beazley	40	40	38	42	36	34	37	29	33	30
Other/Can't Say	10	11	11	9	11	9	9	9	10	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

^Simon Crean was Leader of the ALP from Nov 22, 2001 to Dec 2, 2003

*Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP from December 2003 until January 2005

2. - Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Mr Howard’s approval ratings were highest amongst L-NP supporters (89%) followed by Independent and other candidates supporters (34%). Disapproval ratings were highest amongst Greens supporters (78%) and Labor supporters (73%)

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30			Aust	The	Ind/	No
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	89	20	23	14	34	34
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	7	73	66	78	57	48
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	4	7	11	8	9	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Howard’s approval ratings were higher amongst men (50%) than women (48%) and highest in those aged 50 and over (55%) followed by those aged 25-34. Disapproval ratings were highest amongst those aged 35-49 and those aged 18-24.

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	50	48	44	48	42	55
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	45	44	51	42	52	39
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	5	8	5	10	6	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval Rating Trend for Prime Minister since 1996 Federal election

	Mar 2/3 (Election Weekend)	Mar 16-23	Mar 30 — Apr 6	Apr13-20	Apr 27- May 5	May 11-18	May 26 — June 2	Sep 15/16	Sep 16/17	Apr 11/12	May 17/18	June 2/3
	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	2001	2002	2003	2003	2004
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	46	49	54	54	57	67	67	60	52	65	65	48
Disapprove	32	13	13	16	17	15	25	23	40	28	30	45
Can't say	22	38	33	30	26	18	8	17	8	7	5	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	June 30/July 1	Aug 4/5	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	58	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49
Disapprove	38	34	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44
Can't say	7	8	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader

 

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Beazley is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Mr Beazley’s approval ratings were highest amongst Independent and other candidates supporters followed by ALP supporters and Australian Democrats supporters. Disapproval ratings were highest amongst Greens supporters (76%), L-NP supporters (64%) and Democrats supporters (62%).

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12*	Aug 18/19*	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*`	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30			Aust	The	Ind/	No
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	58	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	26	36	32	20	42	17
Disapprove	30	32	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	64	57	62	76	50	41
Can't say	14	10	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	10	7	6	4	8	42
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP from December 2003 until January 2005

Mr Beazley’s approval ratings were higher amongst men (31%) than women (28%) and highest for those aged 25-34 (33%). Disapproval ratings were higher for those aged 50 and over (66%) followed by those aged 35-49 (64%).

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 11/12*	Aug 18/19*	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*`	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	58	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	31	28	26	33	30	28
Disapprove	30	32	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	62	62	51	57	64	66
Can't say	14	10	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	7	10	23	10	6	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP from December 2003 until January 2005

Approval Rating Trend for Opposition Leader since 1996 Federal election

	Mar 16-23	Mar 30 — Apr 6	Apr13-20	Apr 27- May 5	May 11-18	May 26 — June 2	Sep 15/16	Sep 16/17^	Apr 11/12^	May 17/18^	June 2/3*	June 30/July 1*
	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	2001	2002	2003	2003	2004	2004
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	34	41	42	45	52	48	35	30	26	26	56	50
Disapprove	17	15	16	16	17	21	54	38	60	63	32	37
Can't say	49	44	42	39	31	31	11	32	14	11	12	13
Total	100	100