Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases 

Labor front-bencher Julia Gillard is preferred to lead the Labor Party by 31% of voters, more than the 20% of voters who prefer current leader Kim Beazley while front-bencher Kevin Rudd has the same level of support amongst voters (20%) as the embattled leader, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. When Mr Beazley is removed as a candidate for the leadership support for Ms Gillard rises 4% to 35% of all voters, 11% more than support for Mr Rudd 24% (also up 4%).

Of particular importance are the views of Labor voters: 29% prefer Julia Gillard to lead Labor followed by Kevin Rudd on 24% and Kim Beazley third on 20%. When Kim Beazley is not considered as a candidate Julia Gillard’s support increases 5% to 34% while Support for Kevin Rudd also increases 5% to 29%.

Prime Minister John Howard is the preferred Coalition Leader for 36% of voters, followed by Treasurer Peter Costello (17%), Parliamentary Secretary Malcolm Turnbull (10%) and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer (9%). When Mr Howard is removed from consideration as Coalition Leader Peter Costello’s support increases 12% to 29%, Alexander Downer’s support increases 6% to 15% and Malcolm Turnbull’s support increases 2% to 12%.

Importantly 59% of Coalition voters prefer John Howard as Prime Minister, 17% prefer Costello, 8% Downer and 6% Tony Abbott. When John Howard is not considered as a candidate, support for Peter Costello rises 20% to 37%, support for Alexander Downer increases 12% to 20% and support for Tony Abbott increases 7% to 13%.

Gary Morgan says:

“With leadership succession high on the agenda polls like this are more important than ever.

Julia Gillard is preferred to lead the Labor party by 31% of all voters and 29% of ALP voters. When Kim Beazley is removed from consideration her support rises to 35% of all voters and 34% of ALP voters.

Peter Costello is the clear preferred leader of the Coalition with 29% of all voters preferring him when Mr Howard is not a candidate and 37% of L-NP voters. But the Prime Minister is still preferred to lead the Coalition by 36% of voters and 59% of L-NP voters compared to Costello on 17% of all voters and 17% of L-NP voters.”

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30, 2006 with an Australia-wide cross section of 898 men and women aged 14 and over. More details are available on a subscription basis.

1.- Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	April	Sep	Mar			Aust	The	One	Family	Ind/	No
	2004	2005	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Nation#	First #	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	46	37	36	59	24	20	6	56	39	18	14
Costello	14	18	17	17	15	29	19	17	21	23	-
Turnbull	6	9	10	3	16	15	21	9	9	11	6
Downer	6	10	9	8	10	5	9	10	-	8	4
Abbott	3	6	6	6	7	-	6	-	6	5	-
Nelson	n/a	4	4	1	7	9	3	-	6	7	-
Andrews	n/a	3	2	*	2	5	6	8	-	6	-
Someone else	2	*	1	*	1	-	3	-	-	8	-
Can't say	18	12	15	6	18	17	27	-	19	14	76
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	April	Sep	Mar
	2004	2005	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	46	37	36	37	35	39	40	28	39
Costello	14	18	17	19	15	10	13	17	21
Turnbull	6	9	10	12	9	2	5	11	14
Downer	6	10	9	9	8	8	9	10	7
Abbott	3	6	6	4	8	11	5	9	3
Nelson	n/a	4	4	4	4	1	3	9	2
Andrews	n/a	3	2	3	1	3	1	2	3
Someone else	2	*	1	2	1	1	*	2	1
Can't say	18	12	15	10	19	25	24	12	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

Respondents who preferred John Howard were then asked “Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Peter Costello, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull, Alexander Downer, Brendan Nelson, Kevin Andrews?” These figures were added to the responses for Liberal leaders other than John Howard from the previous question to show preferred leaders of the Coalition other than John Howard.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Mar			Aust	The	One	Family	Ind/	No
	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Nation#	First #	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	29	37	21	35	19	51	27	30	-
Downer	15	20	13	5	11	10	7	10	4
Turnbull	12	7	17	14	21	9	9	11	6
Abbott	11	13	11	-	6	8	25	14	8
Nelson	7	7	9	12	4	-	6	7	-
Andrews	3	1	3	11	7	14	-	6	-
Someone else	2	*	1	-	3	-	-	8	-
Can't say	21	15	25	23	29	8	26	14	82
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Mar
	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	29	33	24	15	32	23	34
Downer	15	15	16	15	14	14	16
Turnbull	12	15	11	2	5	13	18
Abbott	11	9	13	19	11	13	8
Nelson	7	8	6	2	3	14	5
Andrews	3	3	3	5	1	3	4
Someone else	2	1	1	1	1	2	2
Can't say	21	16	26	41	33	18	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

2. - Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar			Aust	The	One	Family	Ind/	No
	2005	2005	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Nation#	First #	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Beazley	42	30	20	23	20	10	12	-	28	27	-
Gillard	15	20	31	28	29	42	55	30	7	21	8
Rudd	23	19	20	20	24	30	9	16	23	21	5
Macklin	-	4	6	6	7	-	8	9	-	8	-
Swan	3	4	3	2	3	-	2	21	-	7	-
Smith	2	3	3	2	4	10	2	-	6	2	-
Tanner	1	3	2	1	2	2	1	7	-	3	-
Shorten	-	-	*	1	-	6	-	-	-	-	-
Someone else	1	2	1	2	-	-	1	-		5	-
Can't say	13	15	14	15	11	-	10	17	36	6	87
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan	Sep	Mar
	2005	2005	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Beazley	42	30	20	21	19	26	23	17	20
Gillard	15	20	31	29	33	13	31	33	34
Rudd	23	19	20	24	17	10	11	25	23
Macklin	-	4	6	4	8	8	2	11	5
Swan	3	4	3	4	2	-	6	2	2
Smith	2	3	3	3	2	7	1	2	3
Tanner	1	3	2	3	1	6	1	1	2
Shorten	-	-	*	*	1	-	1	*	*
Someone else	1	2	1	1	1	-	1	-	2
Can't say	13	15	14	11	16	30	23	9	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Respondents who preferred Kim Beazley were then asked “Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?” These figures were added to the responses for Labor leaders other than Kim Beazley from the previous question to show preferred leaders of the Labor Party other than John Howard.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Mar			Aust	The	One	Family	Ind/	No
	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens	Nation#	First #	Other#	Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	35	32	34	47	58	30	13	28	8
Rudd	24	24	29	35	10	16	38	23	5
Macklin	8	8	8	-	10	9	-	10	-
Smith	5	5	5	10	3	-	6	2	-
Swan	4	3	4	-	5	21	-	9	-
Tanner	3	2	5	2	2	8	-	3	-
Shorten	*	1	*	6	-	-	-	-	-
Can’t say	20	23	15	-	11	16	43	20	87
Someone else	1	2	-	-	1	-	-	5	-
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Mar
	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	35	32	38	16	38	37	38
Rudd	24	28	20	13	15	28	29
Macklin	8	6	10	8	3	13	6
Smith	5	6	4	9	2	3	6
Swan	4	5	4	1	7	5	4
Tanner	3	4	2	10	3	1	2
Shorten	*	*	*	-	1	*	*
Someone else	1	1	1	-	1	-	2
Can’t say	20	18	21	43	30	13	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30, 2006 with an Australia-wide cross section of 898 men and women aged 14 and over.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of
the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:        Office +61 3 9224 5213      Mobile +61 411 129 094       Home +61 3 9419 3242
Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215       Mobile  +61 411 129 093       Home +61 3 9817 3066 

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement