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A clear majority of NSW voters (51%) think Morris Iemma would make the better State Premier, 23% said Peter Debnam and 26% can't say, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds. Analysis by voting intention shows that a large majority of ALP supporters (74%) say Mr Iemma would make the better Premier, support from all other party supporters is below 40% however only slightly more Liberal-National Party supporters prefer Mr Debnam to Mr Iemma (38% cf 34%).

Of all electors 54% approve of the way Mr Iemma is handling his job as Premier, 31% disapprove and 15% couldn’t say. The highest approval rating of NSW Premier Bob Carr was in 1995 when 62% approved of the job he was doing. Premier Iemma’s approval is highest amongst ALP supporters (67%) and lowest amongst Greens supporters (24%).

Only slightly more voters approve (36%) than disapprove (35%) of the way Mr Debnam is handling his job. A substantial 29% of voters is unable to say if they approved or disapproved. Mr Debnam’s approval is higher than those of former Opposition Leaders Peter Collins and Kerry Chikarovski. Apart from L-NP supporters, more people disapprove than approve of Mr Debnam amongst supporters of all other parties.

Gary Morgan says:

“Morris Iemma is seen as the better Premier of NSW by 51% of voter which is, more than twice those who see Mr Debnam as the better Premier (23%). Premier Iemma’s approval rating of 54% is also high and clearly ahead of that of Mr Debnam (36%).

Surprisingly more NSW voters would prefer former leader John Brogden (24%) to lead the Liberal Party at the next State election than current leader Peter Debnam (21%).

Mr Debnam has been Opposition Leader since September 2005. He should now expect a better result.”

Morris Iemma is the preferred leader of the Labor Party at the next election by 41% of voters, followed by Diane Beamer 16%, John Watkins 11% and Carl Scully 9%, 4% preferred another candidate and 19% couldn’t say. Most voters prefer former Opposition Leader John Brogden (24%) to lead the Liberal Party at the next State election, 21% say current leader Peter Debnam, 14% Jillian Skinner, 10% say Barry O’Farrell, 2% prefer another candidate and 29% couldn’t say.

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30 and April 5/6, 2006 with a NSW-wide cross section of 409 men and women electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

1. - Better Premier

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr Iemma and Mr Debnam. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier — Mr Iemma or Mr Debnam?”

Many more ALP supporters (74%) think Mr Iemma would make the better Premier, followed by Greens supporters (35%) and L-NP supporters (34%). L-NP supporters think Mr Debnam (38%) would make a better Premier than Mr Iemma (34%).

		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			The	Ind/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Other#	Undecided#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Iemma	51	74	34	35	14	15
Debnam	23	9	38	31	13	10
Can't say	26	17	28	34	73	75
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Iemma is higher amongst women (52%) than men (50%) and highest among those aged 18-24 (60%). Support for Mr Debnam is higher with men (25%) than women (21%) and highest amongst those aged 50 and over (32%).

		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Iemma	51	50	52	60	50	53	48
Debnam	23	25	21	11	14	19	32
Can't say	26	25	27	29	36	28	20
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

2. - Approval of Leaders

Premier

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Iemma is handling his job as Premier?”

Approval of Mr Iemma is highest amongst ALP supporters (67%) followed by L-NP supporters (45%) and those who did not express a voting intention (35%). Disapproval of Mr Iemma is highest amongst Greens supporters (57%).

							Analysis by State Voting Intention
	May*	Nov*	Mar*	Apr*	Mar*	Apr			The	Ind/
	1995	1995	1996	1998	1999	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Other#	Undecided#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	62	44	31	34	51	54	67	45	24	27	35
Disapprove	17	41	55	52	32	31	21	42	57	28	14
Can't say	21	15	14	14	17	15	12	13	19	45	51
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Bob Carr (NSW Premier)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval for Mr Iemma is higher among women (55%) than men (53%) and highest amongst those aged 50 and over (61%).

							Analysis by Sex and Age
	May*	Nov*	Mar*	Apr*	Mar*	Apr
	1995	1995	1996	1998	1999	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	62	44	31	34	51	54	53	55	52	50	47	61
Disapprove	17	41	55	52	32	31	37	25	26	28	34	31
Can't say	21	15	14	14	17	15	10	20	22	23	19	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Bob Carr (NSW Premier)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Debnam is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Approval of Mr Debnam is higher amongst L-NP supporters (44%), then ALP supporters (31%) and Greens supporters (24%).

						Analysis by State Voting Intention
	May^	Nov^	Mar^	Mar*	Apr			The	Ind/
	1995	1995	1996	1999	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Other#	Undecided#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	28	26	29	28	36	31	44	24	14	15
Disapprove	23	32	27	44	35	43	31	42	28	5
Can't say	49	42	44	28	29	26	25	34	58	80
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

^Peter Collins (Opposition Leader)

*Kerry Chikarovski (Opposition Leader)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Mr Debnam is higher among men (37%) than women (35%) and highest of all amongst those aged 50 and over (43%).

						Analysis by Sex and Age
	May^	Nov^	Mar^	Mar*	Apr
	1995	1995	1996	1999	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	28	26	29	28	36	37	35	31	30	32	43
Disapprove	23	32	27	44	35	40	30	23	33	33	40
Can't say	49	42	44	28	29	23	35	46	37	35	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

3. - Preferred Leader

Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next New South Wales State election, who would you prefer?”

Support for Morris Iemma is highest amongst ALP supporters (52%) then L-NP supporters (37%).

		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			The	Ind/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Other#	Undecided#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Iemma	41	52	37	-	-	15
Beamer	16	16	15	46	27	5
Watkins	11	8	14	-	14	-
Scully	9	8	12	-	15	-
Someone else	4	3	5	9	-	-
Can't say	19	13	17	45	44	80
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Morris Iemma is preferred to lead Labor by more men (44%) than women (38%) and most of all by those aged 50 and over (47%).

		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Iemma	41	44	38	35	33	39	47
Beamer	16	15	17	21	12	16	16
Watkins	11	13	9	9	9	13	10
Scully	9	8	10	18	8	12	6
Someone else	4	3	4	3	2	2	6
Can't say	19	17	22	14	36	18	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Liberal Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Liberal Party voter and helping to choose the Liberal leader for the next New South Wales State election, who would you prefer?”

Support for Peter Debnam is highest amongst L-NP supporters (32%), while he is only preferred by 14% of ALP supporters. Support for John Brogden is highest among Independent candidates and Other Party supporters (29%) followed by L-NP supporters (28%) and ALP supporters (22%).

		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Mar			The	Ind/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Other#	Undecided#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Debnam	21	14	32	-	-	10
Brogden	24	22	28	20	29	5
Skinner	14	17	11	37	43	-
O’Farrell	10	13	8	-	-	-
Someone else	2	3	3	-	-	-
Can't say	29	31	18	43	28	85
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

More men (24%) than women (19%) prefer Peter Debnam to lead the Liberal Party at the next state election, similarly more men (25%) than women (23%) believe John Brogden should lead the Liberals to the next election. Support for Peter Debnam is highest amongst those aged 50 and over, while support for John Brogden is higher amongst those aged 18-34 (27%).

		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Mar
	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Debnam	21	24	19	15	14	15	31
Brogden	24	25	23	27	27	20	24
Skinner	14	12	16	14	9	19	13
O’Farrell	10	13	7	7	4	12	11
Someone else	2	2	3	2.5	1	1	4
Can't say	29	24	32	34.5	45	33	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30 and April 5/6, 2006 with a NSW-wide cross section of 409 men and women electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of
the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

For further information:

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