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Nearly four times as many voters think Steve Bracks (67%) would make a better Premier than Robert Doyle (18%) a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds.  Eighty-seven per cent of ALP supporters think Mr Bracks is the better Premier as do 42% of Liberal-National Party supporters, while only 41% of L-NP supporters say Mr Doyle — 17% can't say. 

Only 13% of Victorian voters and 13% of Liberal supporters would prefer Mr Doyle to lead the Liberal Party at the State election. A substantial 38% of voters would prefer former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett to lead the Liberals— this figure increases to 58% amongst L-NP supporters. Liberal Deputy Leader, Louise Asher is also preferred to Robert Doyle with 15% of voters preferring her to lead the Liberals at the next State election. However when Jeff Kennett is removed from consideration, Robert Doyle is the preferred candidate to lead the Liberals (27%), followed by Louise Asher (25%) and Ted Baillieu (15%).

A majority of Victorians (56%) approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 34% disapprove and 10% couldn’t say. Of ALP supporters 76% approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 18% disapprove and 6% couldn’t say. 

Only 30% of voters approve of the way Mr Doyle is handling his job as Opposition Leader, while 51% disapprove and 19% couldn’t say.  This result only improves slightly among L-NP supporters: 41% approve, 46% disapprove and 13% couldn’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“More than two-thirds of Victorian voters think Steve Bracks would be a better Premier than Robert Doyle, only 18% of voters think Mr Doyle would be a better Premier. Even Coalition supporters think Mr Bracks(42%) would be a better Premier than Robert Doyle (41%).

Mr Bracks is preferred by 55% of voters to lead Labor to the next election, followed by John Thwaites and John Brumby (both 11%).  Support for former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett’s hasn’t subsided — 38% of Victorian voters prefer him as Liberal leader, increasing to 58% amongst L-NP supporters.”

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30 and April 5/6, 2006 with a Victoria-wide cross section of 321 men and women electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

1.- Better Premier

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr Bracks and Mr Doyle. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier — Mr Bracks or Mr Doyle?”

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier was highest amongst ALP supporters (87%).  A higher proportion of L-NP supporters thought Mr Bracks (42%) would be a better Premier than Mr Doyle (41%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			Minor Parties/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%
Bracks	67	87	42	28
Doyle	18	6	41	-
Can't say	15	7	17	72
Total	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier was higher amongst men (71%) than women (64%). His support is highest with voters aged 18-24 (78%). Support for Mr Doyle was the same amongst men and women (both 18%) and highest amongst those aged 50+ (24%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Bracks	67	71	64	78	70	72	59
Doyle	18	18	18	14	17	13	24
Can't say	15	11	18	8	13	15	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

2. - Approval of Leaders

Premier

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier?”

Mr Bracks’ approval rating was highest amongst ALP supporters (76%), while disapproval was higher among L-NP supporters (65%).

	Electors 18+						Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr			Minor Parties/
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	52	52	44	57	56	76	27	28
Disapprove	51	42	40	47	38	34	18	65	14
Can't say	8	6	8	9	5	10	6	8	58
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Jeff Kennett (Premier)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Bracks’ approval was marginally higher among men (56%) than women (55%) and highest in those aged 25-34 (73%) followed by those aged 39-49 (59%). Disapproval ratings were highest amongst those aged 50+ (43%).

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	52	52	44	57	56	56	55	48	73	59	48
Disapprove	51	42	40	47	38	34	32	37	32	17	34	43
Can't say	8	6	8	9	5	10	12	8	20	10	7	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Jeff Kennett (Premier)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Doyle is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Mr Doyle’s approval ratings were highest amongst L-NP supporters (41%), however, a larger proportion of L-NP supporters disapproved (46%) and 13% were undecided.  Mr Doyle’s disapproval rating was highest amongst ALP supporters (56%). 

	Electors 18+						Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr			Minor Parties/
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	27	27	26	36	30	26	41	9
Disapprove	14	47	50	49	45	51	56	46	28
Can't say	59	26	23	25	19	19	18	13	63
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Doyle’s approval ratings were equal amongst men and women (both 30%) and highest for those aged 50 and over (35%). Disapproval ratings were highest for those aged 35-49 (58%).

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	27	27	26	36	30	30	30	23	30	25	35
Disapprove	14	47	50	49	45	51	53	49	43	49	58	49
Can't say	59	26	23	25	19	19	17	21	34	21	17	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

3. - Preferred Premier

Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Victorian State election, who would you prefer?”

Mr Bracks is clearly the preferred choice to lead Labor to the next State election with the highest level of support coming from ALP supporters (67%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			Minor Parties/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%
Bracks	55	67	40	32
Thwaites	11	9	16	5
Brumby	11	10	12	14
Hulls	7	4	14	-
Someone else	3	3	2	4
Can't say	13	7	16	45
Total	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

A slightly higher percentage of men (58%) preferred Mr Bracks to lead Labor to the next State election than women (52%).  Support for Mr Thwaites was higher among women (13%) than men (10%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Bracks	55	58	52	56	59	57	51
Thwaites	11	10	13	9	8	11	14
Brumby	11	12	10	11	13	9	12
Hulls	7	8	6	3	4	5	11
Someone else	3	4	1	-	3	4	2
Can't say	13	8	18	21	13	14	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Liberal Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Liberal Party voter and helping to choose the Liberal leader for the next Victorian State election, who would you prefer?”

Jeff Kennett’s support is highest amongst L-NP supporters (58%) followed by ALP supporters (27%). Current Opposition Leader Robert Doyle’s support as preferred Opposition Leader is highest amongst ALP supporters (14%) followed by L-NP supporters (13%). 

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			Minor Parties/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%
Doyle	13	14	13	9
Kennett	38	27	58	23
Asher	15	19	12	-
Baillieu	11	12	9	10
Clark	2	3	1	-
Someone else	2	3	-	-
Can't say	19	22	7	58
Total	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Kennett was slightly higher amongst men (39%) than women (37%), and highest amongst those aged 25-34 (51%) and 35-49 (45%).  Support for Mr Doyle was higher amongst women (16%) than men (10%) and highest amongst those aged 50 and over (18%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Doyle	13	10	16	11	11	9	18
Kennett	38	39	37	34	51	45	29
Asher	15	14	16	12	4	16	20
Baillieu	11	13	10	15	4	8	15
Clark	2	3	1	4	4	-	2
Someone else	2	3	-	3	1	2	1
Can't say	19	18	20	21	25	20	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Electors who preferred Jeff Kennett were then asked: “Still thinking about helping choose the Liberal leader for the next Victorian State election, who would you prefer out of:Robert Doyle, Ted Baillieu, Louise Asher and Robert Clark?”

These figures were added to the responses for Liberal leaders other than Jeff Kennett from the previous question to show preferred leaders of the Liberal Party other than Jeff Kennett.

When Mr Kennett is not considered a candidate, support for Robert Doyle is highest amongst L-NP supporters (35%), although, support for Louise Asher is highest amongst ALP supporters (27%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr			Minor Parties/
	2006	ALP	L-NP	Undecided
	%	%	%	%
Doyle	27	23	35	9
Asher	25	27	25	5
Baillieu	15	15	16	10
Clark	3	3	3	-
Someone else	2	4	-	5
Can’t say	28	28	21	71
Total	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Doyle as the preferred Liberal leader at the next State election is higher amongst women (31%) than men (22%) and amongst those aged 50+ (30%).  Ms Asher also received more support from women (26%) than men (23%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr
	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Doyle	27	22	31	25	26	23	30
Asher	25	23	26	12	23	27	27
Baillieu	15	18	12	20	6	12	20
Clark	3	4	1	7	6	-	2
Someone else	2	4	1	3	5	2	1
Can’t say	28	29	29	33	34	36	20
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of March 29/30 and April 5/6, 2006 with a Victoria-wide cross section of 321 men and women electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

• For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office +61 3 9224 5213         Mobile +61 411 129 094       Home +61 3 9419 3242

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215         Mobile +61 411 129 093       Home +61 3 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of
the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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