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In mid-April primary support for the L-NP Government dropped 0.5% to 38.5% — a substantial 7.9% below the result at the October 2004 Federal election.  Primary support for the ALP was down 1.5% to 42% — 4.4% higher than their result at the 2004 Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties are allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%; L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be 46% for the L-NP — unchanged in the past fortnight — and 54% for the ALP (up 5% since mid-March). Had a Federal election been held during April, the ALP would have easily.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 9.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (up 0.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 62% (down 2.5%) think the L-NP will win, 26.5% (up 1.5%) think the ALP will win and 11.5% (up 1%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Coalition Government received their lowest level of primary support (38.5%) since December last year.  Primary support for the Government fell 0.5% to 38.5%, while support for the ALP dropped 1.5% to 42%.”

“Significantly, 7% fewer people think the Government will win the next election compared with a month ago (62% cf 69%).”

During the period:

• Prime Minister John Howard, Deputy PM Mark Vaile and Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer gave evidence to the Cole Commission in Sydney, little new information emerged.
• The British High Court ruled against an appeal by its Home Office that attempted to prevent terrorist suspect David Hicks from becoming a British citizen. Britain citizenship is expected to expedite Hicks’ release from Guantanamo Bay.
• PM John Howard and Immigration Minister Amanda Vanstone announced an extension to the ‘Pacific solution’.  In accordance with yet-to-be passed legislation, asylum seekers who make it to the Australian mainland will be transferred to offshore immigration centres for assessment.
• A special Roy Morgan poll found Julia Gillard to be the preferred leader of the Labor Party.  Gillard received 31% of the vote, while current leader Kim Beazley received just 20%, along with Kevin Rudd.  For the Government, John Howard (36%) and Peter Costello (17%) were the two preferred options.
• Residents of Katherine in the Northern Territory criticised the Government’s response to recent flooding in the region. 
• The national Easter road toll was 21 — four fewer than last year.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on April 8/9, 2006.

Liberal supporters continue to be impressed with John Howard’s strong leadership of the party.  Common responses included: “Liberals are more stable.  I listen to what they say and hopefully they’ll carry it through”, “Little Johnny is doing a good job, he sticks to what he says, he's fairly honest and does his best.  I'm fairly happy with the way they're going” and “I'm really happy with John Howard, he's doing a great job.  We're swinging voters — when you're on a good thing stick to it.”

The policies of the Coalition Government also attracted widespread support: “The leader seems to have direction.  They seem to have a firm stance on their policies, whereas the Opposition doesn't really have a firm stance on their policies”, “I believe in their policies; they’re centred on small business, not social sector conscience. A Labor Government will throw money at people” and “The PM is handling the terrorist situation very well, he's very diplomatic and very experienced in overseas affairs.”

The lack of a viable alternative and continuing doubt surrounding the ALP leadership acted as a sticking point for Liberal supporters: “I believe the Government has the required strength of leadership that the Labor Party doesn’t have at the moment”, “The Liberal Party seem to know what they are doing, unlike the Labor Party at the moment, which is why I would vote Liberal” and “I don't like the alternatives, they're badly lead — no appeal at all.”

Supporters of the ALP were impressed with the working-class values and social awareness of the party: “Labor is good for unemployed and small business people, whereas the Liberals are more supportive of rich big commercial business”, “I think they have got more social concerns than Liberal.  The current Government has an outdated view of social and family issues” and “Because of their values toward education, welfare and health care.”

Backlash against the Government’s IR reforms, almost a month after their introduction, continues to raise the ire from ALP supporters: “They're not fair — dismissal for no reason at all. Employers have got all the rights, employees have none”, “Dissatisfied with the current party — it’s time for a change.  The war in Iraq and new IR laws — don’t think they are well considered — reforms slanted toward the employers” and “John Howard's IR policy stinks.”

The duration of the Coalition Government’s time in power also appears to be causing some concern: “A bit of change and competition is good.  Not happy about the Liberals”, “I feel that it's time for a change because the present PM has done a good job and cannot improve things any longer” and “We want a change. One party for so long is not good.”

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 8/9 and 15/16, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,830 electors.  Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”  Of all electors surveyed, 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	62	26.5	11.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 1,830 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 - 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

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