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In late-April primary support for the L-NP Government rose 1.5% to 40% — still a substantial 6.4% below their result at the October 2004 Federal election. Primary support for the ALP was down 3% to 39% — but still 1.4% higher than their result at the 2004 Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties are allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%; L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be 48.5% for the L-NP — up 2.5% in the past fortnight — and 51.5% for the ALP. Had a Federal election been held in late-April, the ALP would have won a close contest.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8.5% (down 1%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6.5% (up 1%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 63.5% (up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win, 24.5% (down 2%) think the ALP will win and 12% (up 0.5%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Before the Reserve Bank increased interest rates by 0.25% support for the Coalition rose 1.5% to 40%. The Coalition also narrowed the gap on a two-party preferred basis from 8% to 3% — ALP 51.5%, L-NP 48.5%.

“The issues for the Howard Government to monitor are how the electorate responds to this week’s rise in interest rates, the looming High Court challenge to the Industrial Relations reforms and next week’s Federal Budget — all of which will set the political scene for the next few months. If the RBA pushes interest rates up again before the next Federal election the Government will be in serious trouble! If rates do not rise then the election will be fought on economic management and Industrial Relations.”

 

During the period:

• Private Jacob Kovco became the first Australian soldier to be killed while serving in Iraq. An official investigation is under way into how the incident occurred. Embarrassing Government blunders including shipping the wrong body home from Kuwait and differing versions of how Kovco died further complicated matters.
• Speculation surrounding Labor leader Kin Beazley’s health and capacity to lead the Party continued.
• Commissioner Cole ruled out contempt charges against PM John Howard following remarks he made to the media after giving evidence at the AWB hearing.
• Relatively high inflation figures released by the RBA triggered speculation that an interest rate rise was imminent. Economists also warned of higher petrol prices as tensions in Iran increase.
• The Government announced that it will soon begin the process of selling Medibank Private, Australia’s largest private health insurer. The sale of the public asset is expected to provide $1 billion to the Government.
• Federal Cabinet approved the introduction of a smart card for all people who use Government health and welfare services. Announcing the decision, PM Howard said the Government decided not to continue with a proposal for a national identity card for all Australians. He said the new smart card will strike the right balance between stamping out welfare fraud and legitimate privacy concerns.
• AWB acting CEO Peter Polson stepped down after just two months in the position.
• Residents of Port Arthur, Tasmania, reflected on the 10th anniversary of the shooting massacre carried out by Martin Bryant.
• Three miners became trapped in Tasmania’s Beaconsfield Mine after the tunnel they were in collapsed.
• Australian’s gathered to commemorate Anzac Day.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 22/23 and 29/30, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,985 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006	62	26.5	11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	63.5	24.5	12

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006	40 (3)	39	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	6.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 1,985 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 22/23& April 29/30 , 2006 - 2% (unchanged) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4024 is taken from Computer Report No. 2110

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