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On the weekend of May 13/14 — the weekend after the budget delivering tax cuts — support for the L-NP was 42% (up 3% in a week and down 4.4% since the October 2004 Election), while the ALP was 40.5% (down 1.5% in a week and up 2.9% since the 2004 Election), the latest Morgan Poll finds. If preferences were distributed as they were at the 2004 election (ALP 60.5%, L-NP 39.5%), the two-party preferred vote would be ALP 51%, L-NP 49% — too close to call.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 7% (down 2.5% in the week following the budget), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 70% (up 9.5% in a week) think the L-NP will win, 20% (down 8% in a week) think the ALP will win and 10% (down 1.5%) can’t say.

On May 6/7, immediately after the 0.25% interest rate rise but before tax cuts delivered in the budget, the two-party preferred was L-NP 46.5%, ALP 53.5%; primary support for the L-NP was down 1% to 39%, however, it picked up 3% on May 13/14 to 42% following the Budget which had tax cuts for all. On May 6/7 ALP support was up 3% to 42% following the interest rate rise, however, it dropped back to 40.5% following the Budget.

Gary Morgan says:

“A pre-budget sharp decline in consumer confidence and L-NP vote after the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% was offset following the release of the budget that delivered tax cuts for all.
“An election would be too close to call if held now. What happens in the economy from now until the election will decide who wins the next Federal election.”

 

During the period (pre-budget):
• Tasmanian miners Todd Russell and Brant Webb were rescued from the Beaconsfield mine 14 days after becoming trapped one kilometre underground. Australian Workers Union Secretary Bill Shorten, touted by some as a future Labor leader, received praise for the way he lead the recovery efforts.
• Private Jake Kovco, the first Australian soldier killed in Iraq, was laid to rest at a service in his hometown of Briagalong in eastern-Victoria. The funeral was attended by high-ranking Defence Force officials, Defence Minister Brendan Nelson and Prime Minister Howard.
• In an effort to avoid rising inflation the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25%. The RBA was concerned consumer spending might have been picking up at a time of limited spare productive capacity in the economy.
• ALP Leader Kim Beazley announced that his party was dumping former Leader Mark Latham’s policies of cutting funding to elite private schools and the introduction of Medicare Gold.
• The High Court of Australia began hearing a challenge by the NSW Government against the validity of the Federal Government’s recently introduced industrial relations reforms. Evidence from every state and territory will be heard, as well as from unions and the Commonwealth.
• Terrorist suspect David Hicks received some good news when The British Court of Appeal announced that it would refuse to hear anymore appeals from the British Government regarding his recently accepted citizenship application.

During the period (post-budget):
• Treasurer Peter Costello released his 11th budget, announcing widespread tax cuts, extra assistance for families, as well as an overhaul of the superannuation scheme. It is hoped the tax cuts will offset the strain of the recent rise in interest rates and rising fuel costs.
• Despite the number of full-time jobs in Australia increasing by 22,700, the April unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.1%, up 0.1% from 5% in March. PM Howard and Treasurer Costello both indicated that this was a great result and that Australia was a “worker’s market like never before”.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of May 6/7 and 13/14, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,024 (May 6/7) and 818 (May 13/14) electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% did not name a party in both weeks.

For further information:

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006	62	26.5	11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	63.5	24.5	12
May 6/7, 2006	60.5	28	11.5
May 13/14, 2006	70	20	10

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006	40 (3)	39	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	6.5
May 6/7, 2006	39 (2)	42	2.5	9.5	1.5	1	4.5
May 13/14, 2006	42 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	7	1.5	0.5	6
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 1,024 electors interviewed face-to-face on May 6/7 & 818 electors interviewed face-to-face on May 13/14, 2006 - 4.5% did not name a party on both weekends.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4026 is taken from Computer Report No. 2112

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