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Prime Minister John Howard is preferred by 43% (up 7% since March) of all electors to be the Coalition Leader at the next Federal Election, 17% (unchanged) prefer Peter Costello, 8% (down 1%) Alexander Downer and 6% for both Tony Abbott (unchanged) and Malcolm Turnbull (down 4%). Of L-NP voters, a substantial 70% prefer Mr Howard as Liberal Leader, while only 12% prefer Mr Costello according to a special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights.

In addition, a higher proportion of electors (48%) say Opposition Leader Kim Beazley would make a better Prime Minister than Peter Costello (41%), while 11% can’t say. This should be of concern to Mr Costello supporters as 61% (unchanged since March 2006) of electors believe John Howard is a better PM than Mr Beazley (34%) would be while 5% can’t say.

Of some consolation to Mr Costello, if John Howard retires, he is clearly the preferred Liberal Leader with 31% (up 2%) of all electors and 33% of L-NP supporters preferring him to lead the Liberal Party, while Mr Downer’s support increases 9% to 17% and Mr Abbott’s support increases 7% to 13%.

Approval of the way Mr Howard is handing his job as PM is up 3% to 52%, while a large 87% of L-NP voters approve.

Approval of the way Mr Beazley is handling his job as Opposition Leader is 39% (up 10% from 29% in March), but still 8% below his 47% approval rating in September last year.

However, the same proportion of electors (26%) prefer Labor front-bencher Julia Gillard (down 5% since March) to lead the Labor Party to the next election as they do Mr Beazley (up 6% since March).

When Mr Beazley is removed as a candidate for the Labor leadership, support for Ms Gillard rises 6% to 32% of all voters and 38% of ALP voters. Shadow Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd was supported by 20% of all electors and 25% of ALP voters to lead the Labor Party to the next election. Australian Workers’ Union Secretary Bill Shorten and Jenny Macklin are each preferred by 6% of all electors.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special telephone Morgan Poll shows that John Howard is clearly preferred as Australia’s Liberal PM irrespective of Peter Costello’s ‘deal’ in 1994.

“Mr Howard’s experience over many years was frequently mentioned in special qualitative research — it is clear he has built and maintained significant trust with electors.

“Many electors who prefer Kim Beazley for Prime Minster over Peter Costello point to the political error Mr Costello made this week in confronting John Howard. However, a week is a long time in politics — next week the media will be focusing on the economy; higher fuel prices, declining unemployment and a booming Australian economy forcing the RBA to lift interest rates!

“For the ‘academics’, the special telephone Morgan Poll two-party preferred vote over the last two night’s showed the ALP at 51%, L-NP 49%. Last weekend’s face-to-face Morgan Poll showed the ALP at 53.5%, L-NP 46.5%.”

Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research looked at reasons why electors said John Howard, Peter Costello or Kim Beazley would make the better Prime Minister:

Given a choice between John Howard and Kim Beazley, many thought John Howard makes a better Prime Minister than Kim Beazley because of Mr Howard’s experience:
“He’s got the runs on the board, so to speak, and this experience generates trust”, “He has won four elections, and is better than any other Prime Minster for a long time”, “He’s really proved himself”, “Better the devil you know”, “John Howard is a proven performer”, “John Howard has kept the country on the right track, it’s gone forward with him”, “John Howard has more experience and makes the tough decisions when they need to be made”.

Given a choice between Peter Costello and Kim Beazley, many thought Peter Costello’s success as Treasurer placed him in a better position to run the country:
“He has a good economics background, and you need to be a businessman to run the country”, “Costello has done a great job as Treasurer”, “Peter Costello has a proven track record”, “He’s been Treasurer and we’ve seen continuing economic growth”, “He has his finger on the pulse more than Beazley”, He’s been in charge of the economy for a long time, and we’re in very good shape”, “He has been running the country when Howard is away anyway”.

Many of those who consider that Kim Beazley would make a better Prime Minster than Peter Costello highlighted Peter Costello’s political misstep by confronting John Howard:
“Costello has made a serious political error which shows that he is not up to the job”, “Recent circumstances have reinforced that he is immature”, “Mr. Costello has embarrassed himself recently”, “I don’t like Costello because he has been too pushy over the leadership”, “Costello just wants the top job and that’s it”.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of July 12/13, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross section of 578 electors.

Roy Morgan Detailed Analysis
A detailed analysis of the results is available for $6,800 plus GST (this fee includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

1. Better Prime Minister: Howard vs Beazley

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Beazley. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Beazley?”

Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was highest with L-NP supporters (94%) followed by Family First (60%) and Australian Democrats (58%) voters. Support for Mr Beazley was highest with ALP supporters (64%) followed by the Greens (52%) and Australian Democrats (42%) supporters.

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul			Aust	The	Family	Ind/
	2005	2005	2006	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens#	First#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	94	32	58	38	60	57
Beazley	33	30	26	34	4	64	42	52	40	31
Other/can’t say	10	11	13	5	2	4	-	10	-	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was marginally higher amongst women (62%) than men (61%) and highest of all with voters aged 18-24 (70%). Support for Mr Beazley was the same with men and women (both 34%) and highest with those aged 35-49 (37%).

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul
	2005	2005	2006	2006	Men		Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	61		62	70	62	56	62
Beazley	33	30	26	34	34		34	29	35	37	34
Other/can’t say	10	11	13	5	5		4	1	3	7	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100		100	100	100	100	100

	Sept 12/13, 2001	Sept 15/16, 2001	Sept, 2002^	April 23, 2003^	May 20-22, 2003^	June 4-5, 2003^	Sep 15-17 2003	Dec, 2003*	June 2/3, 2004*	June 30/July 1 2004*	Aug 4/8 2004*
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	53	64	57	71	71	73	57	61.5	50	55	58
Beazley	31	23	25	15	19	16	25	25	38	34	34
Other/Can't Say	16	13	18	14	10	11	18	13.5	12	11	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	Aug 11/12 2004*	Aug 18/19 2004*	Sept 1/2 2004*	Sept 15/16 2004*	Sept 22/23 2004*	Sept 29/30 2004*	Oct 7/8 2004*	Nov 3/4 2004*	Jan 19/20 2005	Sept 21/22 2005	Jul 12/13 2006
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	49	51	49	53	57	54	62	57	59	61
Beazley	40	40	38	42	36	34	37	29	33	30	34
Other/Can't Say	10	11	11	9	11	9	9	9	10	11	5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

^Simon Crean was Leader of the ALP from Nov 22, 2001 to Dec 2, 2003
*Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP from December 2003 until January 2005

2. Better Prime Minister: Costello vs Beazley

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Costello and Mr Beazley. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Costello or Mr Beazley?”

Support for Mr Beazley as better Prime Minister was highest with ALP voters (72%) followed by Australian Democrats (63%) voters. Support for Mr Costello was highest with L-NP supporters (66%) followed by Family First (41%) and Independent and Other Parties (39%) voters.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jun	Jul			Aust	The	Family	Ind/
	2003	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens#	First#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Beazley	53	48	26	72	63	58	25	52
Costello	38	41	66	19	37	27	41	39
Someone else/can’t say	9	11	8	9	-	15	34	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Beazley as better Prime Minister was higher with men (52%) than women (46%) and highest with voters aged 35-49 (52%). Support for Mr Costello was marginally higher with women (42%) than men (40%) and highest with those aged 25-34 (44%).

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jun	Jul
	2003	2006		Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%
Beazley	53	48		52	46	51	46	52	47
Costello	38	41		40	42	41	44	40	42
Someone else/can’t say	9	11		8	12	8	10	8	11
Total	100	100		100	100	100	100	100	100

3. Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Mr Howard’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (87%) followed by Australian Democrats supporters (55%). Disapproval is highest with ALP (70%) and Independent and Other voters (69%).

	Electors 18+											Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13			Aust	The	Family	Ind/
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#	Greens#	First#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	87	23	55	22	44	25
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	9	70	45	68	39	69
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	4	7	-	10	17	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Howard’s approval is highest with men (53%) than women (51%) and highest with those aged 18-24 (57%) followed by those aged 50+ (56%). Disapproval is highest with those aged 35-49 (47%) and those aged 25-34 (41%).

	Electors 18+											Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	53	51	57	49	45	56
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	42	41	36	41	47	40
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	8	7	10	8	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Approval Rating Trend for Prime Minister since 1996 Federal election

	Mar 16-23	Mar 30 — Apr 6	Apr 13-20	Apr 27- May 5	May 11-18	May 26 — June 2	Sep 15/16	Sep 16/17	Apr 11/12	May 17/18	June 2/3	June 30 — July 1
	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	1996	2001	2002	2003	2003	2004	2004
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	49	54	54	57	67	67	60	52	65	65	48	55
Disapprove	13	13	16	17	15	25	23	40	28	30	45	38
Can't say	38	33	30	26	18	8	17	8	7	5	7	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
	Aug 4/5	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52
Disapprove	34	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42
Can't say	8	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Beazley is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Mr Beazley’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (50%) followed by Greens (39%). Disapproval is highest with Democrats supporters (70%).

	Electors 18+														Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12*	Aug 18/19*	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13			Aust		The	Family	Ind/
	2004	2004	2005	2005	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	L-NP	ALP	Dem.#		Greens#	First#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%		%	%	%
Approve	56	58	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	31	50	30		39	23	29
Disapprove	30	32	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	58	39	70		55	44	56
Can't say	14	10	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	11	11	-		6	33	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100		100	100