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Israel And America Most To Blame For Escalation In Middle East Violence
Despite Israel receiving the most sympathy in its current battle with Hezbollah militants, it is also most to blame, a special telephone Roy Morgan survey finds. Thirty-four per cent of Australians blame Israel or America for the recent escalation in violence, compared to 23% who blame Hezbollah and its sympathisers (Iran, Syria, Palestine, Hamas). Significantly, 7% blame religion, 5% human nature/society in general, while just 4% blame Lebanon — the scene of the most intense battles thus far. Thirty-eight per cent of women “can’t say or don’t know” who to blame, compared to 24% of men. In a reflection of the complex nature and confusion surrounding the current battle, more than 15 individual countries/organisations were “blamed” for the surge in violence (see table 1). As reported on Friday, four-in-five (79%) Australians say that Israel should try to negotiate a cease-fire, 12% say Israel should continue to use military force in Lebanon and 9% don’t know or can’t say. A higher proportion of women (88%) are in favour of a cease-fire than men (71%), while younger Australians, particularly those aged 14-17 (85%) are most in favour of peace. More than double the number of Australians sympathise with Israel (33%) than they do with Hezbollah (15%), while 27% say they sympathise with “neither” side, 8% sympathise with both sides “equally” while 17% don’t know or can’t say.
This special telephone Roy Morgan Survey was conducted on July 26/27, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 644 men and women aged 14 and over. More details are available on a subscription basis. 1. Who is to blame for the recent escalation in violence? Respondents were firstly asked: “Who do you blame for the escalation of violence in the Middle East in recent weeks?” Respondents were not prompted and multiple responses were allowed. Men (24%) are more likely than women (16%) to blame Hezbollah for the recent escalation of violence; whereas women are more likely to “don’t know or can’t say” than men (38% cf 24%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * Less than 0.5% Nineteen per cent of ALP voters blame America for the escalation in violence compared to just 8% of L-NP voters. Twenty-five per cent of ALP voters blame Israel and 19% Hezbollah, whereas 25% of L-NP voters blame Hezbollah and 19% Israel.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
2. Who Australians Sympathise With? Respondents were then asked: “About the current fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. Which side do you sympathise with more — Hezbollah or Israel?” Men are more likely to sympathise with Israel than women (40% cf 27%), while 22% of those aged 14-17 sympathise with Hezbollah compared to just 9% of those aged 50+. Australians aged 50+ are the most likely (29%) to sympathise with neither Israel nor Hezbollah.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Supporters of the Coalition Government (42%) are more likely than ALP voters (31%) to sympathise with Israel. ALP voters (28%) are more likely than L-NP voters (24%) to have no sympathy for either side.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution 3. What To Do - Cease-fire or not? Finally, respondents were asked: “Do you believe Israel should try to negotiate a cease-fire, or continue to use military force in Lebanon so they can disarm Hezbollah?” Women (88%) are much more likely than men (71%) to say that Israel should continue negotiate a cease-fire with Hezbollah. Fourteen per cent of those aged 50+ are the most likely to be in favour of continued military action, while those aged 14-17 (4%) are the least likely.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution ALP voters (83%) are more likely than L-NP voters (74%) to say that Israel should try to negotiate a cease-fire.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Morgan Poll Detailed Analysis For further information:
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association. |
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