ALP Jump Ahead With Electorate Focused On Interest Rates And War In Middle East
| Finding No. 4062 -
August 04, 2006 |
The latest Morgan Poll shows a jump in Labor support with the ALP leading the L-NP 53.5% - 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The Morgan Poll was conducted with the electorate focused on the pending interest rate rise from higher than expected inflation figures, Opposition Leader Kim Beazley’s plans to expand Labor’s ‘three-mines’ uranium policy, and the intense violence that has gripped Israel and Lebanon in recent weeks.
Primary support for the L-NP was 40% (down 5%), ALP 42% (up 5.5%).
If an election had been held in mid-July, the ALP would have won.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2% (up 0.5%%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (down 1%).
On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 59.5% (down 1.5%) think the L-NP will win, 29% (up 1%) think the ALP and 11.5% (up 0.5%) can’t say.
Interviewing was conducted face-to-face Australia wide with a sample of 1,843 electors over the last two weekends of July (July 22/23 and July 29/30).
Gary Morgan says:
“In late July, the ALP experienced a jump in support following the announcement of higher than expected CPI data, which culminated in a 0.25% interest rate rise this week. ALP primary support was up 5.5% to 42%, ahead of the L-NP (40%, down 5%), while on a two-party preferred basis, the ALP is ahead 53.5% to 46.5%.
“The Israel-Hezbollah conflict in the Middle East distracted the electorate from internal politics during the past fortnight. In a Morgan Poll taken last week, 79% of Australians were in favour of a cease-fire, while 34% of Australians blame Israel or America for the escalation in violence compared to 23% who blame Hezbollah and its sympathisers (Iran, Syria, Palestine, Hamas).
“However, domestic issues will decide who wins next year’s election — industrial relations, interest rates and strong leadership!”
During the period:
• Racial and religion tension gripped the Middle East, with both Israel and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militant group receiving criticism for their role in escalating the conflict. PM John Howard and Foreign Minister Alexander Downer expressed reservations about being a part of a peacekeeping force in the region.
• The Reserve Bank released higher than expected inflationary data, up 1.6% in the June quarter and 4% for the 2005/06 financial year. The results strengthened the case for another interest rate rise.
• Opposition Leader Kim Beazley announced his intention to expand Labor’s uranium policy so more than three mines can operate. However, he faces a backlash from within his own party with some MPs already speaking out publicly against the idea.
• The inquiry into Private Jake Kovco’s — the first Australian military casualty in Iraq — death continued, with his family and legal team dismissing the notion that he would have committed suicide.
• More than 200 people died when a tsunami struck the southern coast of Indonesia. Criticism about the failure of the tsunami “warning system” — set up in the wake of the 2004 Boxing Day disaster — to notify residents of the impending danger was levelled at the Government.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted on the weekend of July 22/23 and 29/30, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,843 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
| March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
June 17/18 & 24/25 |
July 1/2 & 8/9 |
July 15/16 |
July 22/23 & 29/30 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats# |
41 |
59 |
29.5 |
70.5 |
34 |
66 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
The Greens |
23 |
77 |
15 |
85 |
8 |
92 |
19 |
81 |
|
Family First# |
75 |
25 |
27 |
73 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
67 |
33 |
|
One Nation# |
39 |
61 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
36 |
64 |
|
Independent/Other |
54 |
46 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
33 |
67 |
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample size |
Percentage estimate |
| |
25-75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1000 |
 ± 3 |
 ± 2 |
 ± 1½ |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 4062 is taken from Computer Report No. 2131 |
