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As Queensland Election Is Called, ALP Ahead 13 Points On Two-Party Preferred - Would Win Election Easily
The day Queensland Premier Peter Beattie called an election for September 9, the latest Morgan Poll showed that during July and early-August, primary support for the Queensland Labor Government was down 1% to 49.5% and support for the L-NP Coalition increased 2.5% to 36% (Liberals — 23.5% [up 1%], Nationals — 12.5%, up 1.5%). On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 State election, support for the ALP was down 2% to 56.5%, while L-NP support was 43.5% (up 2%). Despite the slight fall in support, the Morgan Poll finds that if there had been an election during the July — August period, Labor would have won easily. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 4% (down 0.5%), Family First support was 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 6.5% (up 0.5%).
During the period: • Water continues to be a major issue in drought-stricken Queensland, as the city of Toowoomba rejects by referendum the prospect of adding recycled wastewater to the region’s depleted water supplies. Premier Beattie had been planning a state-wide referendum on the issue for local government Election Day in March 2008, but now says it could be held in conjunction with next year's federal poll. • There will be a number of fresh faces contesting the September election, as several high-profile Labor politicians announced their retirement, and Bob Quinn was ousted as Liberal leader in favour of health spokesman Bruce Flegg. • The rising price of oil has continued to place petrol prices on the political agenda. Prime Minister John Howard said that anyone with an idea for reducing the price of petrol could give him a call at the Lodge where he said he would “spend an hour, all ears, listening to them”. • After second-quarter Consumer Price Index figures showed 4% headline inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced on August 2 that they would be increasing the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 6 percent, pushing most variable home loan interest rates to 7.8%. • On July 12, Hezbollah militants invaded Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, sparking the 2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of over 1000 Lebanese and 150 Israelis. • Dumped Brisbane Lions star Jason Akermanis was touted as a future politician after Peter Beattie stated that he would “sit down and have a chat" with the player about one day standing for the Labor Party. Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on July 15/16, 2006. ALP supporters often felt that, although they may not be pleased with the actions of the Labor Government, there was no quality opposition to Labor’s incumbency: “I’m not particularly happy with the Labor Party at present, but they have been in for a while and have done a reasonable job — there’s just no real opposition”, “The other options are inconceivable at this time”, “I think at least they are better than the alternative” and “I don’t think the other mob are that good”. Many Queensland Labor Party voters come from the ALP’s traditional base — the workers: “I agree with their policies on things like social security and the dole. I also like their association with the union movement”, “My family are working class, and I believe in the right of the people”, “I believe in Labor views, they represent union workers” and “The Liberals are for the employers, who hurt the workers”. A large number of Liberal and National supporters expressed concern at Peter Beattie’s leadership and his party’s policies: “Mr Beattie is incompetent and so are his bureaucrats”, “The Labor Party has made the State broke”, “I feel the Nationals are better for rural affairs”, “Labor spends money — the Liberals save money” and “I think it’s time for Beattie to go”. The popularity of Prime Minister John Howard bolsters support for the National and Liberal Parties: “Who else would I vote for? I think all politicians are a bunch of lunatics except for John Howard”, “John Howard is the best man at the moment” and “I’m happy with the performance of the Liberal Party at the Federal level”. The preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 76.5% cf L-NP — 23.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 67.5% cf L-NP — 32.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 60.5% cf L-NP — 39.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 55.5% cf L-NP — 45.5%) favoured the ALP State Government, while the preferences of supporters of Family First (L-NP — 53% cf ALP — 47%) favoured the L-NP Opposition. The latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,207 electors throughout Queensland on the weekends during July and early-August, 2006. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 3% (down 1.5%) did not name a party. Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
For further information:
QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
##Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ^Family First was launched in August 2004 TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
Finding No. 4066 is taken from Computer Report No. 2133 |
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