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The latest Morgan Poll shows that during early August the ALP maintained a 6% lead on a two-party preferred basis, with the ALP now leading the L-NP 53% - 47%.

The gap in primary support between the ALP and Coalition decreased slightly, with the ALP down 0.5% to 41.5%, while L-NP support increased 0.5% to 40.5%. If an election had been held in early August, the ALP would have won.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 3% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 58.5% (down 1%) think the L-NP will win, 28% (down 1%) think the ALP and 13.5% (up 2%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“It is not surprising the ALP continues to lead the Howard Government - they're under pressure on asylum seekers, stem cell research, petrol prices, industrial relations and interest rates.

“It is clear that what happens to Australian interest rates over the next year will be a key factor (along with petrol prices and industrial relations) in determining the outcome of the 2007 Federal Election. If the recent fall in consumer confidence results in Australians cutting back borrowing and spending, then a further interest rate ‘hike’ is unlikely — time will tell.”

During the period:

• Racial and religious tension gripped the Middle East, with both Israel and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militant group receiving criticism for their role in escalating the conflict. The fighting continued for a month before UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced that the Prime Ministers of Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire.

• There were extraordinary scenes on the front steps of Parliament House in Canberra as Opposition Leader Kim Beazley and senior Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey traded verbal insults in a tow-to-toe clash. Mr Beazley called Mr Tuckey "weak and worthless", prompting the Liberal backbencher to call Beazley a "fat so-and-so".

• The Howard Government’s contentious immigration bill, which would have allowed the Government to process all asylum seekers arriving by boat offshore, faced significant opposition from within Liberal Party ranks.

• The rising price of oil pushed petrol prices onto the political agenda. Prime Minister John Howard asked for ideas on how to reduce the price of petrol, saying that he would “spend an hour, all ears, listening” to the public’s thoughts.

• The ABS’s July Labour Force survey showed that, for the third month straight employment increased by 50,700 — meaning that the official unemployment rate now stands at 4.8%, a 30-year low.

• Following the latest interest rate hike, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell by the largest monthly margin in its 33-year history. During July, the Rating fell by 14.4 points from 118.1 to 103.7.

Roy Morgan Qualitative Analysis:

Many Coalition supporters feel that the L-NP Coalition Party are more adept at managing the economy: “I have a higher level of confidence in John Howard and his team in running the economy”, “I think that the Coalition handle money better than the Opposition”, “I think the Labor Party’s economic and financial management is poor”, “I don’t trust Labor to manage the economy” and “ALP would bring back high interest rates like they did last time”.

Some Coalition supporters mentioned the Government’s values: “I support the Liberal Party because of my Christian values”, “The Liberal Party are much better for the family”, “I like the local candidate — his policies are the best for people who hold religious values” and “John Howard is a Christian and he is very family-oriented”.

Labor supporters often cited several of the Howard Government’s more contentious policies as reasons for opposing the Coalition: “Someone should take him out the back and flog him for the IR policy”, “I am dissatisfied with the present Government — Industrial Relations, the war in Iraq, the divisiveness between rich and poor, the Australian Wheat Board”, “Howard started the war in Iraq with the US, and I believe he is not honest”, “I’m opposed to the Liberal Party’s human rights record and his policy on Industrial Relations.”

Other Labor supporters thought that after ten years with the Howard Government in power, it is simply time for a change: “I think we have become a materialistic, greedy society with little compassion - a change may bring back our compassion”, “It’s time for a change, Howard has been in too long and he has let the country down in the last two years”, “I don’t like or trust John Howard — it’s time for a change” and “I believe the Labor Party would give us a fresh outlook”.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted on the weekends of August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,882 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5
December 17/18, 2005	58	28	14
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	59	27	14
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	65	25	10
February 4/5, 2006	62	27	11
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	60	27	13
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	66	23	11
March11/12 & 18/19, 2006	69	20.5	10.5
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	64.5	25	10.5
April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006	62	26.5	11.5
April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	63.5	24.5	12
May 6/7, 2006	60.5	28	11.5
May 13/14, 2006	70	20	10
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	64.5	22	13.5
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	61.5	26.5	12
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	58.5	28.5	13
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	56.5	30	13.5
July 15/16, 2006	61	28	11
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	59.5	29	11.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	58.5	28	13.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
December 17/18, 2005	39.5 (4)	39.5	1.5	10.5	3	1.5	4.5
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	39 (3.5)	43	2	8	3	1	4
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	42 (2.5)	38	2	8.5	2.5	1	6
February 4/5, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	42	1.5	8	2	1	5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	40 (3)	40.5	2.5	8	2	1	6
February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006	43 (3.5)	39.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	44 (3.5)	38.5	1.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006	39 (2)	43.5	1.5	8	2	1	5
April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006	38.5 (2)	42	1.5	9.5	2.5	0.5	5.5
April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006	40 (3)	39	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	6.5
May 6/7, 2006	39 (2)	42	2.5	9.5	1.5	1	4.5
May 13/14, 2006	42 (2.5)	40.5	2.5	7	1.5	0.5	6
May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006	42 (3.5)	41	1.5	7.5	3	1	4
June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006	39.5 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1.5	4.5
June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006	42 (3)	40.5	1.5	8.5	1.5	0.5	5.5
July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006	39 (3)	42.5	2.5	8.5	2.5	1	4
July 15/16, 2006	45 (2.5)	36.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1.5	5.5
July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006	40 (2.5)	42	2	8	2.5	1	4.5
August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006	40.5 (3.5)	41.5	2	8.5	3	1	3.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4068 is taken from Computer Report No. 2134

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