ALP Maintain Six Percent 2PP Lead Over Coalition
| Finding No. 4068 -
August 18, 2006 |
The latest Morgan Poll shows that during early August the ALP maintained a 6% lead on a two-party preferred basis, with the ALP now leading the L-NP 53% - 47%.
The gap in primary support between the ALP and Coalition decreased slightly, with the ALP down 0.5% to 41.5%, while L-NP support increased 0.5% to 40.5%. If an election had been held in early August, the ALP would have won.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 3% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%).
On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, 58.5% (down 1%) think the L-NP will win, 28% (down 1%) think the ALP and 13.5% (up 2%) can’t say.
Gary Morgan says:
“It is not surprising the ALP continues to lead the Howard Government - they're under pressure on asylum seekers, stem cell research, petrol prices, industrial relations and interest rates.
“It is clear that what happens to Australian interest rates over the next year will be a key factor (along with petrol prices and industrial relations) in determining the outcome of the 2007 Federal Election. If the recent fall in consumer confidence results in Australians cutting back borrowing and spending, then a further interest rate ‘hike’ is unlikely — time will tell.”
During the period:
• Racial and religious tension gripped the Middle East, with both Israel and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah militant group receiving criticism for their role in escalating the conflict. The fighting continued for a month before UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan announced that the Prime Ministers of Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire.
• There were extraordinary scenes on the front steps of Parliament House in Canberra as Opposition Leader Kim Beazley and senior Liberal MP Wilson Tuckey traded verbal insults in a tow-to-toe clash. Mr Beazley called Mr Tuckey "weak and worthless", prompting the Liberal backbencher to call Beazley a "fat so-and-so".
• The Howard Government’s contentious immigration bill, which would have allowed the Government to process all asylum seekers arriving by boat offshore, faced significant opposition from within Liberal Party ranks.
• The rising price of oil pushed petrol prices onto the political agenda. Prime Minister John Howard asked for ideas on how to reduce the price of petrol, saying that he would “spend an hour, all ears, listening” to the public’s thoughts.
• The ABS’s July Labour Force survey showed that, for the third month straight employment increased by 50,700 — meaning that the official unemployment rate now stands at 4.8%, a 30-year low.
• Following the latest interest rate hike, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell by the largest monthly margin in its 33-year history. During July, the Rating fell by 14.4 points from 118.1 to 103.7.
Roy Morgan Qualitative Analysis:
Many Coalition supporters feel that the L-NP Coalition Party are more adept at managing the economy: “I have a higher level of confidence in John Howard and his team in running the economy”, “I think that the Coalition handle money better than the Opposition”, “I think the Labor Party’s economic and financial management is poor”, “I don’t trust Labor to manage the economy” and “ALP would bring back high interest rates like they did last time”.
Some Coalition supporters mentioned the Government’s values: “I support the Liberal Party because of my Christian values”, “The Liberal Party are much better for the family”, “I like the local candidate — his policies are the best for people who hold religious values” and “John Howard is a Christian and he is very family-oriented”.
Labor supporters often cited several of the Howard Government’s more contentious policies as reasons for opposing the Coalition: “Someone should take him out the back and flog him for the IR policy”, “I am dissatisfied with the present Government — Industrial Relations, the war in Iraq, the divisiveness between rich and poor, the Australian Wheat Board”, “Howard started the war in Iraq with the US, and I believe he is not honest”, “I’m opposed to the Liberal Party’s human rights record and his policy on Industrial Relations.”
Other Labor supporters thought that after ten years with the Howard Government in power, it is simply time for a change: “I think we have become a materialistic, greedy society with little compassion - a change may bring back our compassion”, “It’s time for a change, Howard has been in too long and he has let the country down in the last two years”, “I don’t like or trust John Howard — it’s time for a change” and “I believe the Labor Party would give us a fresh outlook”.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted on the weekends of August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,882 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
| March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
July 1/2 & 8/9 |
July 15/16 |
July 22/23 & 29/30 |
August 5/6 & 12/13 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats# |
29.5 |
70.5 |
34 |
66 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
28 |
72 |
|
The Greens |
15 |
85 |
8 |
92 |
19 |
81 |
15 |
85 |
|
Family First# |
27 |
73 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
67 |
33 |
54 |
46 |
|
One Nation# |
48.5 |
51.5 |
34.5 |
65.5 |
36 |
64 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
|
Independent/Other |
34.5 |
65.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
33 |
67 |
40 |
60 |
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample size |
Percentage estimate |
| |
25-75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1000 |
 ± 3 |
 ± 2 |
 ± 1½ |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 4068 is taken from Computer Report No. 2134 |
