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In August, primary support for the L-NP Opposition was up 2.5% to 41%. In the same period, primary support for the ALP State Government was down 1% to 46%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis (with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 State Election) Labor was down 2.5% to 55% — a 10 percentage point lead over the Coalition (45%, up 2.5%).

If a Victorian State Election had of been held in August, the ALP would have won easily, albeit with a reduced majority.

Amongst the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 5.5% (down 1%), National Party 2% (down 1%), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 1%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 4.5% (up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The ALP Government still hold a significant 10 percentage point lead on a two-party preferred basis (55% cf 45%) despite the L-NP Opposition gaining 2.5 points during August. L-NP primary support rose by 2.5% during the period to 41%, while primary support for the ALP dropped 1% to 46% - its first drop in support since early May.

“Significantly, support for minor parties and independent candidates is a large 13%.

“If a Victorian State Election had of been held in August, the ALP would have won easily, albeit with a reduced majority.”

During the period:

• Administrators stood down about 200 workers at Melbourne car parts manufacturer Ajax Fasteners, before an agreement was struck by the Federal Government, Holden and Ford to underwrite the company for the next six months.

• A lively debate between Liberal powerbrokers began when former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett criticised Federal Treasurer Peter Costello for being disloyal when he questioned state party's election campaign efforts.

• The conviction of Melbourne man Jack Thomas on terrorism offences was quashed in the Victorian Court of Appeal after the court ruled Thomas's interview with Australian Federal Police (AFP) in Pakistan was inadmissible. Thomas was hurriedly placed under a control order, limiting his movements and including a curfew.

• Monetary policy became a political issue as consumers were hit by higher interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 6%.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on August 12/13, 2006.

The overall performance of the Bracks Government continues to impress the electorate: “The Bracks Labor Government are stable and with-it”, “Mr Bracks is doing a very good job — there have been no issues affect me personally”, “The State seems to be going pretty well”, “Steve Bracks is doing a great job — Labor have a real communal focus at the moment” and “Bracks seems to be doing a really good job at the moment, and he’s a family man”.

Other ALP supporters cited the lack of a credible opposition as reason for supporting Labor: “I don’t think much of the Opposition’s leadership, he seems too wishy-washy. Too many contradictions.”, “I don’t believe the Liberal Party is ready”, “Weak Opposition” and “I’m satisfied with what the Labor Party are doing, and I think the Liberals are in turmoil”.

According to many Liberal supporters, the Bracks Government’s performance has been far from satisfactory: “I’m sick of hearing Bracks say: ‘I’ll look into this’”, “I don’t like the Eastlink toll road, and I don’t like Bracks”, “The Labor Party are a do-nothing Government — we should vote them out”, “I am dissatisfied with Labor — they have no long-term outlook. Just look at the Geelong bypass”, “The Bracks Government directs all the money to Melbourne and to metropolitan schools” and “We’re forgotten in this end of the State — the money only comes as far as Bendigo and Ballarat”.

Other Liberal supporters believe that after seven years it is time for a change of Government: “I like Ted Baillieu and I think the current Government is possibly corrupt”, “Labor have been in power for too long”, “Labor has spent far too much on rubbish things”, “Steve Bracks made rural promises and didn’t keep them — he only thinks of Ballarat as ‘country’” and “I’m sick of Bracks”.

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 87% cf L-NP — 13%), Family First (L-NP — 68% cf ALP — 32%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 61.5% cf L-NP — 38.5%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 61% cf L-NP — 39%) favoured the State Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Victorian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,006 electors throughout Victoria during August 2006. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

VICTORIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

# Results from sample sizes fewer than 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 1006 electors interviewed face-to-face during August 2006; 7.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4½	±3	±2
1000	± 3	± 2	± 1½

Finding No. 4074 is taken from Computer Report No. 2137

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