In Victoria: L-NP Make Up A Small Amount Of Ground - ALP Still Well Ahead
| Finding No. 4074 -
September 01, 2006 |
In August, primary support for the L-NP Opposition was up 2.5% to 41%. In the same period, primary support for the ALP State Government was down 1% to 46%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
On a two-party preferred basis (with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 State Election) Labor was down 2.5% to 55% — a 10 percentage point lead over the Coalition (45%, up 2.5%).
If a Victorian State Election had of been held in August, the ALP would have won easily, albeit with a reduced majority.
Amongst the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 5.5% (down 1%), National Party 2% (down 1%), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 1%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 4.5% (up 1%).
Gary Morgan says:
“The ALP Government still hold a significant 10 percentage point lead on a two-party preferred basis (55% cf 45%) despite the L-NP Opposition gaining 2.5 points during August. L-NP primary support rose by 2.5% during the period to 41%, while primary support for the ALP dropped 1% to 46% - its first drop in support since early May.
“Significantly, support for minor parties and independent candidates is a large 13%.
“If a Victorian State Election had of been held in August, the ALP would have won easily, albeit with a reduced majority.”
During the period:
• Administrators stood down about 200 workers at Melbourne car parts manufacturer Ajax Fasteners, before an agreement was struck by the Federal Government, Holden and Ford to underwrite the company for the next six months.
• A lively debate between Liberal powerbrokers began when former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett criticised Federal Treasurer Peter Costello for being disloyal when he questioned state party's election campaign efforts.
• The conviction of Melbourne man Jack Thomas on terrorism offences was quashed in the Victorian Court of Appeal after the court ruled Thomas's interview with Australian Federal Police (AFP) in Pakistan was inadmissible. Thomas was hurriedly placed under a control order, limiting his movements and including a curfew.
• Monetary policy became a political issue as consumers were hit by higher interest rates when the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 6%.
Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on August 12/13, 2006.
The overall performance of the Bracks Government continues to impress the electorate: “The Bracks Labor Government are stable and with-it”, “Mr Bracks is doing a very good job — there have been no issues affect me personally”, “The State seems to be going pretty well”, “Steve Bracks is doing a great job — Labor have a real communal focus at the moment” and “Bracks seems to be doing a really good job at the moment, and he’s a family man”.
Other ALP supporters cited the lack of a credible opposition as reason for supporting Labor: “I don’t think much of the Opposition’s leadership, he seems too wishy-washy. Too many contradictions.”, “I don’t believe the Liberal Party is ready”, “Weak Opposition” and “I’m satisfied with what the Labor Party are doing, and I think the Liberals are in turmoil”.
According to many Liberal supporters, the Bracks Government’s performance has been far from satisfactory: “I’m sick of hearing Bracks say: ‘I’ll look into this’”, “I don’t like the Eastlink toll road, and I don’t like Bracks”, “The Labor Party are a do-nothing Government — we should vote them out”, “I am dissatisfied with Labor — they have no long-term outlook. Just look at the Geelong bypass”, “The Bracks Government directs all the money to Melbourne and to metropolitan schools” and “We’re forgotten in this end of the State — the money only comes as far as Bendigo and Ballarat”.
Other Liberal supporters believe that after seven years it is time for a change of Government: “I like Ted Baillieu and I think the current Government is possibly corrupt”, “Labor have been in power for too long”, “Labor has spent far too much on rubbish things”, “Steve Bracks made rural promises and didn’t keep them — he only thinks of Ballarat as ‘country’” and “I’m sick of Bracks”.
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 87% cf L-NP — 13%), Family First (L-NP — 68% cf ALP — 32%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 61.5% cf L-NP — 38.5%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 61% cf L-NP — 39%) favoured the State Government.
This latest Morgan Poll on Victorian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,006 electors throughout Victoria during August 2006. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 7.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |

VICTORIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
Lib. |
NP |
Dem.# |
Greens# |
Family First# |
Others# |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Election September 18, 1999 |
45.5 |
42.2 |
4.9 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
^ |
6 |
|
Election November 30, 2002 |
47.9 |
33.9 |
4.3 |
0.1 |
9.7 |
^ |
4.1 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Morgan Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January 2004 |
48 |
34.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
9 |
* |
5 |
|
February 2004 |
53 |
31.5 |
2 |
3 |
6.5 |
* |
4 |
|
March 2004 |
48.5 |
35.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
* |
4 |
|
April 2004 |
52 |
33 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
* |
5 |
|
May 2004 |
49 |
35 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
* |
3.5 |
|
June 2004 |
47 |
35.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
* |
7 |
|
July 2004 |
50.5 |
34 |
2 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
* |
4.5 |
|
August 2004 |
47 |
35 |
2 |
2 |
9 |
* |
5 |
|
September 2004 |
48 |
32 |
3 |
2.5 |
10.5 |
* |
4 |
|
October 2004 |
42.5 |
42 |
2.5 |
1 |
7.5 |
* |
4.5 |
|
November 2004 |
41.5 |
41 |
2 |
1 |
9.5 |
* |
5 |
|
December 2004 |
45 |
35.5 |
3 |
1 |
9 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
January 2005 |
43.5 |
40.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
|
February 2005 |
48.5 |
37 |
1 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
March 2005 |
45.5 |
37.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
3 |
|
April 2005 |
43.5 |
35.5 |
3 |
1 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
May 2005 |
46.5 |
35.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
June 2005 |
43.5 |
36 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
4 |
|
July 2005 |
45.5 |
37 |
2.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
August 2005 |
47 |
36 |
2.5 |
1 |
7 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
September 2005 |
44.5 |
35 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
3 |
5.5 |
|
October 2005 |
50 |
32 |
3 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
3.5 |
|
November 2005 |
47.5 |
32 |
3 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
|
December 2005 |
43.5 |
34.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
12 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
January 2006 |
48 |
33.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
| February 2006 |
48 |
32 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
| March 2006 |
46 |
35 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
4 |
| April 2006 |
48.5 |
31.5 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
| April 29/30 & May 6/7, 2006 |
48 |
34.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
| May 13/14 & 20/21, 2006 |
42 |
39 |
2.5 |
- |
7.5 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
| June 2006 |
46.5 |
35 |
3 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
| July 2006 |
47 |
35.5 |
3 |
2 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
| August 2006 |
46 |
39 |
2 |
1 |
5.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
^Family First was launched in August 2004
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
ALP |
Lib. |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election September 18, 1999 |
50.2 |
49.8 |
|
|
|
Election November 30, 2002 |
57.8 |
42.2 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2002 election |
| |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
|
January 2004 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
|
February 2004 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
March 2004 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
April 2004 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 2004 |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 2004 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
July 2004 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
August 2004 |
59 |
41 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
September 2004 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
October 2004 |
52 |
48 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
|
November 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
|
December 2004 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
January 2005 |
52 |
48 |
53 |
47 |
|
February 2005 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
58 |
42 |
|
March 2005 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
April 2005 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
May 2005 |
57 |
43 |
57 |
43 |
|
June 2005 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
|
July 2005 |
55 |
45 |
56 |
44 |
|
August 2005 |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
September 2005 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
October 2005 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
November 2005 |
59 |
41 |
60 |
40 |
|
December 2005 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
|
January 2006 |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
| February 2006 |
60 |
40 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| March 2006 |
58 |
42 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| April 2006 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
| April 29/30 & May 6/7, 2006 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
| May 13/14 & 20/21, 2006 |
53 |
47 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
| June 2006 |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
| July 2006 |
57 |
43 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
| August 2006 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
May 13/14 & 20/21, 2006 |
June 2006 |
July 2006 |
August 2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
The Greens# |
91 |
9 |
79 |
21 |
86 |
14 |
87 |
13 |
| Australian Democrats # |
100 |
- |
63.5 |
36.5 |
80 |
20 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
| Family First # |
18.5 |
81.5 |
48 |
52 |
25.5 |
74.5 |
68 |
32 |
|
Independent/Other # |
58.5 |
41.5 |
69.5 |
30.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
61 |
39 |
# Results from sample sizes fewer than 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 1006 electors interviewed face-to-face during August 2006; 7.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
25-75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4½ |
±3 |
±2 |
|
1000 |
± 3 |
± 2 |
± 1½ |
Finding No. 4074 is taken from Computer Report No. 2137 |