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Less than half (49%, down 13% from 62% in April) of Queensland electors approve of the way Premier Peter Beattie is handling his job as Premier, 41% disapprove while 10% can’t say, a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds.

A majority of Queensland voters (61%, down 9% from 70% in April) think Mr Beattie makes a better Premier than Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg would. Twenty-nine per cent of voters (up 9% from 20% in April) think Mr Springborg would make a better Premier while 10% can’t say.

Forty per cent (down 2% from 42% in April) approve of the way Mr Springborg is handling his job as Opposition Leader, 47% disapprove and 13% can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Although Mr Beattie is still seen by Queensland electors as the better Premier (61% cf 29%), his approval rating has fallen a significant 13% in just four months from 62% to 49%, while his disapproval rating has increased 9% from 32% in April to 41% in late-August.

““With only a week to go before the Queensland election the fall in Mr Beattie’s approval rating foreshadows a much closer election than most people think.

“Roy Morgan Qualitative Analysis and the final Morgan Poll will be published this Friday.”

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006, with a Queensland-wide cross section of 268 electors.

Voting Intention
The Morgan Poll conducted on August 29/30/31 with a sample of 165 Queensland electors found the ALP with a 5 percentage point lead on a two-party preferred basis — ALP 52.5%, L-NP 47.5% (published in Saturday’s Melbourne Age [September 2]). This is despite 73% of those surveyed who think Labor will win next Saturday compared with 13% the Coalition and 14% undecided.

More details are available on a subscription basis.

1. Better Premier

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr Beattie and Mr Springborg. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier — Mr Beattie or Mr Springborg?”

Support for Mr Beattie as better Premier was highest amongst ALP supporters (93%) compared to 38% from L-NP supporters. Support for Mr Springborg was highest amongst L-NP supporters (61%).

	Electors 18+		Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr	Aug					Minor Parties/
	2006	2006	ALP	L-NP	Lib.	Nat.#	Undecided
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Beattie	70	61	93	38	47	24	43
Springborg	20	29	7	61	53	73	16
Can't say	10	10	-	1	-	3	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Support for Mr Beattie as better Premier was higher among men (65%) than women (58%) and highest of all with voters aged 18-24 (75%). Support for Mr Springborg was higher amongst women (31%) than men (26%) and highest amongst those aged 50+ (36%).

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr	Aug
	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34#	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Beattie	70	61	65	58	75	71	61	54
Springborg	20	29	26	31	21	17	28	36
Can't say	10	10	9	11	4	12	11	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

2. Approval of Leaders

Premier

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Beattie is handling his job as Premier?”

Three-in-four (75%) ALP supporters approve of the job Mr Beattie is doing compared to 27% of L-NP supporters.

	Electors 18+						Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Jul/Aug*	May/Jun*	Sep/Oct*	May/Jun^	Apr	Aug					Minor Parties/
	1993	1994	1995	1996	2006	2006	ALP	L-NP	Lib	Nat.#	Undecided
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	63	73	56	45	62	49	75	27	29	24	38
Disapprove	28	20	34	36	32	41	16	70	68	73	42
Can't say	9	7	10	19	6	10	9	3	3	3	20
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Wayne Goss (Premier)
^Rob Borbidge (Premier)

Mr Beattie’s approval ratings were higher among women (51%) than men (46%) and highest in those aged 18-24 (61%) followed by those aged 25-34 (56%). Disapproval ratings were highest amongst those aged 50+ (47%).

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul/Aug*	May/Jun*	Sep/Oct*	May/Jun^	Apr	Aug
	1993	1994	1995	1996	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34#	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	63	73	56	45	62	49	46	51	61	56	49	42
Disapprove	28	20	34	36	32	41	46	38	32	36	41	47
Can't say	9	7	10	19	6	10	8	11	7	8	10	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Wayne Goss (Premier)
^Rob Borbidge (Premier)

Opposition Leader

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Springborg is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Mr Springborg’s approval ratings were highest amongst L-NP supporters (54%) compared to 33% from ALP supporters.

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul/Aug*	May/Jun*	Sep/Oct*	May/Jun^	Apr	Aug					Minor Parties/
	1993	1994	1995	1996	2006	2006	ALP	L-NP	Lib.	Nat.#	Undecided
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32	33	41	44	42	40	33	54	53	56	30
Disapprove	42	44	40	28	37	47	59	36	36	34	41
Can't say	26	23	19	28	21	13	8	10	11	10	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Rob Borbidge (Opposition Leader)
^Peter Beattie (Opposition Leader)

Mr Springborg’s approval ratings were marginally higher among women (40%) than men (39%) and highest for those aged 25-34 (44%). Disapproval ratings were highest for those aged 50+ (49%).

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul/Aug*	May/Jun*	Sep/Oct*	May/Jun^	Apr	Aug
	1993	1994	1995	1996	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34#	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	32	33	41	44	42	40	39	40	39	44	37	40
Disapprove	42	44	40	28	37	47	49	45	47	37	48	49
Can't say	26	23	19	28	21	13	12	15	14	19	15	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Rob Borbidge (Opposition Leader)
^Peter Beattie (Opposition Leader)

Morgan Poll Detailed Analysis
A detailed analysis of this special Roy Morgan survey can be purchased for $6,800 plus GST (which includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4½	±3	±2

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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