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A special telephone Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weeks (August 16/17 & 29/30/31) shows on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 50%, L-NP 50% — a close election if held now and a significantly different result to the Roy Morgan face-to-face August result.

Primary support for the L-NP was 43%, ALP 40.5%, The Greens 7%, Australian Democrats 1.5%, and Family First 1%, and Independents/Other 3% - a small 4% did not name a party.

More than half of Victorian voters think Steve Bracks (57%, up 4% from 53% in July) would make a better Premier than Ted Baillieu (35%, up 12% from 23% in July). However, 46% (up 10% from 36% in July) approve of the way Mr Baillieu is handling his relatively new job as Opposition Leader, while 23% disapprove, with still a significant 31% undecided.

Now 49% of Victorians (down 2% from 51% in July) approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 38% (up 3%) disapprove and 13% (down 1%) can’t say.

When electors are asked who they think will win the November State Election, 55% say the ALP, 28% say L-NP (17% can’t say).

Gary Morgan says:

“The November Election is going to be closer than most people think. The standing of Liberal Leader Ted Baillieu continues to improve, with his approval rating of 46% near that of Premier Bracks (49%).

“What is significant is that for the first time Morgan Poll Qualitative Research data shows that a large number of electors criticising Premier Bracks and his Government, with ‘time for a change’ the most common theme among these voters.”

Electors surveyed were asked reasons for their opinions as part of special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research.

Those who said Bracks would make the better Victorian Premier highlighted his experience and public profile as a contributing factor in their decision: “Bracks has had more time to get used to the electorate — Bailieu hasn’t been in long enough”, “At least I know what Bracks has been doing. I don’t know much about Baillieu to be honest — he’s just come out of the woodwork”, “Bracks has a bit of charisma and is driving the Government along pretty well without making too many mistakes. I don’t know what Baillieu will do”, “Bracks has the experience, and I think Mr Baillieu is quite feeble” and “I think the trouble with the Victorian Liberals is that they need someone to lead them.”

Critics of Bracks raised concerns about his broken promises as well as his indecisiveness: “Bracks has let Victoria down — like a mirror, he looks into things. Bring back Jeff Kennett as leader of the Liberals”, “I think Bracks has had his time. In regard to Baillieu, we really don’t know anything about him — I hardly ever see him”, “I’m a little disappointed with Bracks’ performance. He’s not making decisions and spends too much on consultants.”, “Steve Bracks is a dill — I don’t think he’s delivered on all his promises”, “I don’t believe Bracks has been a good financial manager” and “Bracks doesn’t see past Geelong or Ballarat.”

A significant proportion of electors highlighted the need for a change in Government: “It’ll be good to have a change. Also not happy about the way the Bracks Government is taking things on”, “I think a change wouldn’t hurt. It would shake up the public service — they’re all a bit blasé. I’m not convinced by anything about Bracks” and “I think we need a change — Bracks is certainly in my black books for all the things he’s downgraded, particularly for pensioners.”

Although the electorate say they don’t know much about Mr Baillieu, there were a number of electors who are impressed with what they have seen: “I think he is having a hard time at the moment, but I think he is more intelligent than Mr Bracks”, “He seems to be tougher”, “I think Liberal policies are going to be better in the long run” and “He’s got the better background for managing the economy.”

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 315 electors.

Morgan Poll Detailed Analysis
A detailed analysis of this special Roy Morgan survey can be purchased for $6,800 plus GST (which includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

1. Better Premier

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr Bracks and Mr Baillieu. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier — Mr Bracks or Mr Baillieu?”

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier was marginally higher amongst women (58%) than men (56%). His support is highest with voters aged 18-24 (73%). Support for Mr Baillieu as better Premier was higher amongst men (39%) than women (31%) and highest amongst those aged 50+ (44%).

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr*	July	Aug
	2006	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Bracks	67	53	57	56	58	73	62	57	50
Baillieu	18*	23	35	39	31	20	27	33	44
Can't say	15	24	8	5	11	7	11	10	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
*Robert Doyle (Liberal Leader)

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier was highest amongst ALP (80%) and Greens supporters (63%). A higher proportion of L-NP supporters think Mr Baillieu (67%) would be a better Premier than Bracks (27%).

	Electors 18+				Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Apr*	July	Aug					Other/
	2006	2006	2006	ALP		L-NP	Greens#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%		%	%	%
Bracks	67	53	57	80		27	63	51
Baillieu	18*	23	35	10		67	23	18
Can't say	15	24	8	10		6	14	31
Total	100	100	100	100		100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

2. Approval of Leaders

Premier

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier?”

Mr Bracks’ approval was higher among women (50%) than men (48%) and highest in those aged 25-34 (55%) followed by those aged 35-49 (53%). Bracks’ disapproval rating was highest amongst those aged 50+ (48%).

	Electors 18+								Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr	Jul	Aug
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	52	52	44	57	56	51	49	48	50	48	55	53	43
Disapprove	51	42	40	47	38	34	35	38	40	35	28	33	30	48
Can't say	8	6	8	9	5	10	14	13	12	15	24	12	17	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Jeff Kennett (Premier)
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Bracks’ approval rating amongst ALP supporters is 72%, while disapproval was highest among L-NP supporters (64%).

	Electors 18+								Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr	Jul	Aug				Other/
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	2006	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	41	52	52	44	57	56	51	49	72	23	44	37
Disapprove	51	42	40	47	38	34	35	38	16	64	29	32
Can't say	8	6	8	9	5	10	14	13	12	13	27	31
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Jeff Kennett (Premier)
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Baillieu is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Mr Baillieu’s approval ratings were higher amongst men (50%) than women (42%) and highest for those aged 50+ (54%).

	Electors 18+								Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr^	Jul	Aug
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	2006	2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	27	27	26	36	30	36	46	50	42	36	39	44	54
Disapprove	14	47	50	49	45	51^	13	23	21	24	25	28	28	17
Can't say	59	26	23	25	19	19	51	31	29	34	39	33	28	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)
^ Robert Doyle (Opposition Leader)
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Baillieu’s approval ratings were highest amongst L-NP supporters (57%). Currently, only 17% of L-NP supporters disapprove of the job he is doing.

	Electors 18+								Analysis by State Voting Intention
	Jul*	Sep*	May*	Dec*	May*	Apr^	Jul	Aug				Other/
	1993	1994	1995	1995	1996	2006	2006	2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens#	Can’t say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	27	27	26	36	30	36	46	46	57	31	34
Disapprove	14	47	50	49	45	51^	13	23	23	17	22	12
Can't say	59	26	23	25	19	19	51	31	31	26	47	54
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)
^ Robert Doyle (Opposition Leader)
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4½	±3	±2

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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