Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases  

With a day to go, the Queensland Labor Government looks set to win Saturday’s State Election, according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights (September 6/7, 2006). On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 State election, support for the ALP was 53% (down 2.5% on the 2004 election) while L-NP support was 47% (up 2.5%) — an ALP win with a reduced majority.

Primary support for the Queensland Labor Government was 45% (down 2%), while support for the L-NP Coalition was 39% (up 3.5%, Liberals — 19% [up 0.5%], Nationals — 20% [up 3%]).

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (up 1.2%), Family First 2% (no candidates last election), One Nation 0.5% (down 4.4%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5.5% (down 0.3%).

A high proportion of electors did not name a party (9%, up 3.5% since the July/August Morgan Poll) making the final outcome harder than ever to determine. The only debate between the two leaders is still to occur, to be held the afternoon before the election on Channel 9, with excepts to be run on ABC's Stateline at 7.30pm. In addition, the Queensland electoral system uses optional preferential voting, so it is difficult to determine the two-party preferred vote.

The higher than normal number of undecided electors is due to Liberal and National Party policy of running only one candidate in each seat — that is, not running candidates against each other.

Analysis of seats held by Independents suggests all are likely to retain their seats.

Gary Morgan says:

“The two key issues are health and water — which the electorate is well aware of. To Premier Beattie’s credit, he has not hidden from these issues. However, he will also be aware that Oppositions don’t get voted in, Governments get voted out!

“With a day to go, the Morgan Poll finds that the Queensland ALP is set to win, but with a reduced majority.

“Two factors make this election difficult to predict: a) the Liberal — National Party policy of having only one candidate standing in each seat; and b) the Beattie Government’s decision to have optional preferential voting.

“The number of electors who couldn’t say how they will vote was 9%, this is about 5% higher than we would expect in the run up to an election.

“We believe that the higher undecided vote is due to electors wanting to vote for the party (Liberal/National) not standing in their seat. How these electors will actually vote on the day is impossible to predict. On one hand they may vote for the party representing the L-NP Coalition. However, this is by no means certain.

“In addition, the Beattie Government initiative to make preferential voting optional means that at least some electors may not end up casting a vote for one of the major parties, and then not contributing to the final count by voting their preferences.”

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted over the last two nights (September 6/7, 2006), showed clearly the reasons why electors supported their preferred party.

Many ALP supporters felt that the Beattie Government has been doing a good job in the face of difficult circumstances, and are still going to vote for them: “I think Beattie is doing an alright job, the water crisis is making things difficult for him, but he has shown that he is willing to bite the bullet”, “The Labor Party have healthcare and water at the top of their agenda”, “Beattie is certainly a leader, he just needs time to sort out the problems and make his plans work” and “Beattie has had a lot of problems with water crisis out of control and the health problem, but it’s not his fault.”

Other ALP supporters are clearly not pleased with the Beattie Government but are going to vote for them because they believe the Opposition is ineffective: “I don’t think that the other parties have much to offer — the Opposition has no leadership”, “The Opposition are too pompous, although I don’t like what Beattie has been doing, but there are no real alternatives”, “I am disenchanted with the Opposition, they are very weak and they’re not going anywhere”, “The Coalition is at odds with each other” and “We have had a gutful of the other crowd, they have been incompetent, bumbling, promising everything and doing nothing.”

The Roy Morgan Qualitative Research showed a large growing number of dissatisfied electors, voting against the Beattie Government because of specific issues, such as: “The current Government has stuffed up just about everything they have done over the past ten years — health, water. They really haven’t looked forward”, “The Beattie Government have been telling lies, and now health and water are falling apart, and policing is a problem”, “I work in the health industry, and Beattie has closed down 600 beds in the Royal Brisbane Hospital, when he was saying he was going to open new hospitals”, “Beattie promises everything, delivers nothing” and “You only have to see what Beattie has done to the health and water system — he hasn’t got the guts to follow through on his policies”.

In addition, many Coalition supporters indicated they were voting against the Beattie Government rather than the alternative, because they feel the Government has neglected them: “I live in far north Queensland, and I think that the Labor Party spends more money, resources and time on the south”, “I think the Labor Party have a too large a majority, and have abused it. I would like to think Queensland is a bit more than Brisbane”, “The National Party are more in tune with what goes on in our local area”, “Beattie should stop worrying about Brisbane so much, and focus on everything else” and “We’ve had Beattie for eight years and he has done nothing to my satisfaction — they don’t look after the country.”

Those supporting the Coalition Parties believe that it is time for a change, and mentioned Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg has shown enough promising characteristics to be worthy of their vote: “I believe the Coalition Party leader has a lot to give, and should be given a chance”, “Springborg is young and he is picking young people who can grow into the job”, “I like Springborg’s firmness and directness”, “We need a new, good leader for the State” and “Springborg has made more of an effort in the election campaign than Beattie.”

Of all electors surveyed, 79% think the ALP will win, 9% the L-NP while 12% couldn’t say.

The latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted by telephone among 604 electors throughout Queensland September 7/8, 2006. Electors were asked: “At the State election for the Legislative Assembly to be held this Saturday, September 9, which party or candidate will receive your first preference?” The names of the candidates and their parties were read out.

Of all electors surveyed, 9% (about 5% higher than expected in the final Morgan Poll pre-election survey) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

Finding No. 4082 is taken from Computer Report No. 2144

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement