[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

A special telephone Morgan Poll conducted this Wednesday and Thursday night (September 20/21) finds the ALP ahead of the L-NP Coalition by just four points on a two-party preferred basis :— ALP 52%, L-NP 48%. If a Victorian State Election had been held in September, the ALP would have won, but with a reduced majority.

Primary support for the L-NP was 44%, ALP 41%, The Greens 8%, Australian Democrats 1%, Family First 0.5% and Independents/Other 5.5%.

Since the ALP’s 2002 Election victory, their primary support has fallen 6.9% from 47.9% to 41%, while L-NP support has jumped 5.8% from 38.2% to 44%.

There has been an increase in support for minor parties since a similar Morgan Poll released in late-August, now 15%, up 2.5%.

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of September 20/21, 2006, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 572 men and women electors. Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

		Telephone Morgan Poll
	Vic State Election November 30, 2002	August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006	September 20/21, 2006
	%	%	%
ALP	47.9	42.5	41
L-NP	38.2	45	44
Greens	9.7	7	8
Democrats	0.1	1.5	1
Family First	^	1	0.5
Independents/ Others	4.1	3	5.5
Total	100	100	100

^The Family First was launched in August 2004

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll
	Vic State Election November 30, 2002	August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006	September 20/21, 2006
	%	%	%
ALP	57.8	50	52
L-NP	42.2	50	48
Total	100	100	100

Roy Morgan Detailed Analysis:

A detailed analysis of this special Roy Morgan survey can be purchased for $6,800 plus GST (which includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
500	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

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