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QUEENSLAND ELECTION: Morgan Poll Accurately Predicted ALP Would Win With Reduced Majority
by Gary Morgan & Michele Levine Public opinion polls need to be accurate in measuring:
In the recent 2006 Queensland State election, all three polls (Morgan, Newspoll and Galaxy) correctly predicted the Beattie ALP Government would win. Galaxy was the most accurate of the three in estimating the primary vote for each party standing. Galaxy’s average error was 0.7% for each of the six “parties” standing (Galaxy included One Nation in ‘Other’, they received 0.6%). The Morgan Poll average error for each of the seven “parties” was 0.9%, while Newspoll’s average error for each of six “parties” was 1.3%. Newspoll included Family First in ‘Other’ (they received 1.9%) and predicted the Greens vote to be 4% (actual 8%).
*Queensland Electoral Commission 12.00pm October 10, 2004 A day before the Queensland State election the Morgan Poll accurately predicted the ALP would win with a reduced majority. The L-NP won five more seats than they obtained at the 2004 State election with a two-party preferred vote; ALP 54.9% (down 0.6%) - L-NP 45.1%. Newspoll was the most accurate on the two-party preferred basis with an error of just 0.1% (ALP 55% - L-NP 45%). The Morgan Poll overestimated the swing to the L-NP by 1.9%, predicting ALP 53% - L-NP 47%, while Galaxy overestimated the ALP vote by 1.6% (ALP 56.5% - L-NP 43.5%). Roy Morgan telephone polls consistently showed a higher vote for The Greens than Newspoll, and up until the Queensland State election pre-election telephone Morgan Polls have normally overestimated actual Green vote. There are always many lessons which are learnt from analysing public opinion poll election estimates with the actual election results, and as with much research, more questions raised. There is little doubt that Queensland Premier Peter Beattie won the recent “War of Spin” — today most Australians would believe his ALP Government was returned with an increased majority because of the way Mr Beattie handled the “gullible” media on election night and in the immediate days following his election victory — the weekend after the tragic deaths of Australian icons Steve Irwin and Peter Brock, both of whom received significant media coverage. Arthur Calwell told Roy Morgan and others he believed he would have won the December 1963 Federal Election if Kennedy (JFK) had not been shot the Saturday before the election. Also many people maintain the Howard Government would not have won the 2001 Federal election if the electorate had not been confronted with images, later proven to be false, of asylum seekers “throwing their children overboard” just before the election. We presented a Morgan Poll paper on this issue in 2001 (finding number 3476): “What happened on November 10? Did the 'race card' (border protection) swing the electorate?” The issue is: Would the Queensland election have resulted in a larger swing to the L-NP if the tragic deaths of Steve Irwin and Peter Brock had not occurred in the week leading up to the election? Both tragedies received more print and TV media coverage than when Kennedy was shot! For further information: The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association. |
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