Coalition Support Up 3.5% - ALP Would Still Win Election
| Finding No. 4090 -
September 30, 2006 |
During late September, primary support for the Coalition Government was up 3.5% to 41.5% (down 4.9% since the 2004 election), while support for the ALP was down 1.5% to 41.5% (up 3.9% since the 2004 election).
If preferences were distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote would be ALP 53%, L-NP 47%. If an election had been held during the last fortnight, ALP would have won.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), Family First 1% (down 1%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (down 0.5%).
On the important question of who the electorate “thinks will win” the next Federal election, 59.5% (up 1.5%) think the L-NP will win, 27.5% (down 2.5%) think the ALP will win and 13% (up 1%) can’t say.
During the period:
- “Australian values” became politicised after Opposition Leader Kim Beazley argued all new arrivals to Australia, including tourists, sign a values pledge. John Howard said that Beazley’s suggestion was unworkable, and instead proposed a citizenship test that would include an English-language test.
- Drivers began to feel relief at the bowser as the price of petrol fell significantly. A substantial fall in the price of oil led to the price of petrol falling almost 25 cents per litre since the late-July peak.
- Pope Benedict XVI drew condemnation for remarks made during a lecture that ostensibly criticised Islam. His comments caused widespread outrage throughout the Muslim world, which led to his expression of regret for the comments.
- Former Vice-President of the United States, Al Gore, toured Australia promoting his film “An Inconvenient Truth”, which highlights the problem of climate change. Prime Minister John Howard rejected Al Gore’s call to sign the carbon dioxide reducing Kyoto Protocol.
- Federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward was installed as the Liberal candidate in the seat of Goulburn, after previously losing her battle for the seat of Epping to Greg Smith.
- Thousands of Australians gathered to pay respects to Steve Irwin and Peter Brock at memorial services on the Gold Coast and in Melbourne, respectively.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted on the weekends of September 16/17 and 23/24, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,199 electors.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
| March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
August 5/6 & 12/13 |
August 19/20 & 26/27 |
September 2/3 & 9/10 |
September 16/17 & 23/24 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats# |
28 |
72 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
21 |
79 |
27 |
73 |
|
The Greens |
15 |
85 |
19 |
81 |
26 |
74 |
25.5 |
74.5 |
|
Family First# |
54 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
54 |
46 |
74 |
26 |
|
One Nation# |
36.5 |
63.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
52 |
48 |
|
Independent/Other |
40 |
60 |
45 |
55 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
2000 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 4090 is taken from Computer Report No. 2147 |
