In NSW: ALP Still Well Ahead
| Finding No. 4091 -
September 30, 2006 |
During September, primary support for the ALP Government dropped 1.5% to 48%, while primary support for the L-NP Opposition was up marginally to 34.5% (up 0.5%) after a significant fall in support during the previous period, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
On a two-party preferred basis (with preferences distributed as they were at the 2003 State Election), the ALP is down 1% to 58.5%, holding a significant lead of 17 percentage points over the L-NP (41.5%, up 1%).
If a NSW State Election had been held during August, the ALP would have won with an increased majority.
Among the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 6.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Christian Democrats 1% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5.5% (down 0.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“The ALP remains well ahead of the L-NP on both a primary support (48% cf 34.5%) and two-party preferred basis (58.5% cf 41.5%).
“When Opposition Leader Peter Debnam took control of the party in August 2005, primary support for the Coalition Opposition was 35.5% - more than a year later it is 34.5%, suggesting he has had no impact on the NSW electorate.
“With a State Election just six months away, the L-NP needs either Debnam to start striking a chord with voters otherwise they face political oblivion for another four years!
“Support for the minor parties during September is a significant 17.5% - up 1% from August.”
During the period:
• Federal Sex Discrimination Commissioner Pru Goward was installed as the Liberal candidate in the seat of Goulburn, after previously losing her battle for the seat of Epping to Greg Smith.
• The Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) was asked to investigate phone calls by Liberal Party politicians to a deputy DPP, who later reinstated charges against a man. Following phone calls from the Opposition Leader, Peter Debnam, and Liberal Senator Bill Heffernan, Greg Smith reversed an earlier decision not to proceed with paedophile charges against a Newcastle man.
• The Police Minister’s Parliamentary Secretary, Tony Stewart, resigned from his position after being caught drink driving in Sydney.
• Laws allowing the random drug testing of motorists were introduced into NSW Parliament. The new legislation will also force all drivers involved in fatal accidents to undergo compulsory blood testing.
• Former Deputy Premier and leader of the Country Party from 1959 to 1975, Sir Charles Cutter, passed away at the age of 88.
• The Sydney Swans, NSW’s only AFL team, reached the Grand Final for the second year in a row.
Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 78% cf L-NP — 22%), the Greens (ALP — 74% cf L-NP — 26%), One Nation (ALP — 63% cf L-NP — 37%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 55% cf ALP — 45%) favoured the State Government, while supporters of the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 73.5%, ALP — 26.5%) and Family First (L-NP — 56% cf ALP — 44%) favoured the Opposition.
This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,134 electors throughout New South Wales during September 2006.
Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For more information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
L-NP |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
One
Nation# |
Family
First# |
Christian
Dems# |
Ind./
Others# |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 25, 1995 |
41.3 |
43.9 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
n/a |
+ |
~ |
9.3 |
|
Election March 27, 1999 |
42.2 |
33.7 (8.8) |
3.3 |
3.9 |
7.5 |
+ |
~ |
9.4 |
| Election March 22, 2003 |
42.6 |
34.6 (9.7) |
0.9 |
8.3 |
1.3 |
+ |
~ |
12.3 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Morgan Poll |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
February 2004 |
49.5 |
36(3) |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
5.5 |
|
March 2004 |
44 |
37.5(3.5) |
2 |
8.5 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
7 |
|
April 2004 |
43.5 |
37.5(3.5) |
1.5 |
10.5 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
6.5 |
|
May 2004 |
42.5 |
37.5(3) |
2 |
9.5 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
7.5 |
|
June 2004 |
40.5 |
41(3) |
2 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
7.5 |
| July 2004 |
44 |
38 (4) |
1.5 |
10 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
5.5 |
| August 2004 |
41.5 |
40 (2.5) |
2 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
7.5 |
| September 2004 |
40 |
41 (3) |
1.5 |
9 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
8 |
| October 2004 |
42 |
43.5 (4.5) |
1.5 |
7 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
5 |
| November 2004 |
42.5 |
40.5 (3.5) |
1 |
8.5 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
6.5 |
| December 2004 |
36 |
44.5 (3) |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
+ |
~ |
7.5 |
| January 2005 |
42.5 |
41.5 (2.5) |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
7 |
| February 2005 |
41.5 |
42 (3) |
1.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
6.5 |
| March 2005 |
39.5 |
43.5 (3) |
0.5 |
9 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
7 |
| April 2005 |
42 |
40.5 (2.5) |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
+ |
~ |
7 |
| May 2005 |
41 |
42 (3) |
2 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
7 |
| June 2005 |
42.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
1 |
8 |
0.5 |
+ |
~ |
8.5 |
| July 2005 |
42 |
39 (4) |
1 |
7 |
1 |
+ |
~ |
10 |
| August 2005 |
48 |
35.5 (4) |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
~ |
5.5 |
| September 2005 |
43.5 |
37 (5) |
1.5 |
8 |
1 |
1.5 |
~ |
7.5 |
| October 2005 |
43.5 |
36.5 (3) |
1.5 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
5 |
| November 2005 |
43 |
37 (4) |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| December 2005 |
43.5 |
36 (4) |
0.5 |
10.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
6 |
| January 2006 |
43 |
36.5 (4.5) |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
6 |
| February 2006 |
39 |
41 (5) |
1.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
| March 2006 |
43 |
40 (3.5) |
1 |
8.5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| April 2006 |
42.5 |
37.5 (2.5) |
2 |
8.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
| May 2006 |
42.5 |
38.5 (4.5) |
2 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| June 2006 |
46 |
35.5 (3) |
2 |
7 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
| July 2006 |
42.5 |
41 (4) |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| August 2006 |
49.5 |
34 (3.5) |
1.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
6 |
| September 2006 |
48 |
34.5 (2) |
1.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
5.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 25, 1995 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election March 27, 1999 |
56 |
44 |
|
|
|
Election March 22, 2003 |
56.2^** |
43.8^** |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2003 election |
|
February 2004 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58 |
42 |
| March 2004 |
57 |
43 |
55 |
45 |
|
April 2004 |
57 |
43 |
55 |
45 |
|
May 2004 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
|
June 2004 |
53 |
47 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| July 2004 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55 |
45 |
| August 2004 |
54 |
46 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 2004 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| October 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| November 2004 |
54 |
46 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| December 2004 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| January 2005 |
53 |
47 |
52 |
48 |
| February 2005 |
52 |
48 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| March 2005 |
51 |
49 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| April 2005 |
54 |
46 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| May 2005 |
53 |
47 |
51 |
49 |
| June 2005 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
53 |
47 |
| July 2005 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
| August 2005 |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
| September 2005 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55 |
45 |
| October 2005 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
| November 2005 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
55 |
45 |
| December 2005 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
| January 2006 |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
| February 2006 |
52 |
48 |
51 |
49 |
| March 2006 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
53 |
47 |
| April 2006 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
| May 2006 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
54 |
46 |
| June 2006 |
58 |
42 |
57 |
43 |
| July 2006 |
54 |
46 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| August 2006 |
60 |
40 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| September 2006 |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
^Malcolm Mackerras Estimate
** The State Electoral Office of New South Wales has not released a two-party preferred vote from the March 2003 State election.
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
June 2006 |
July 2006 |
August 2006 |
September 2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
| Australian Democrats# |
65.5 |
34.5 |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
78 |
22 |
|
The Greens |
84.5 |
15.5 |
93.5 |
6.5 |
82.5 |
17.5 |
74 |
26 |
|
One Nation# |
78 |
22 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
63 |
37 |
| Family First# |
66 |
34 |
67 |
33 |
40 |
60 |
44 |
56 |
| Christian Democrats# |
29.5 |
70.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
63 |
37 |
26.5 |
73.5 |
|
Independent/Other# |
49.5 |
50.5 |
61 |
39 |
56 |
44 |
55 |
45 |
# Results from sample sizes fewer than 50 should be treated with caution.
+ The Family First Vote was first split from the Independent/Other vote in New South Wales in September, 2005
~ The Christian Democratic Party was split from the Independent/Other Vote In New South Wales in October 2005
Sample: 1,134 electors
Interviewed: September 2006
6.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
Finding No. 4091 is taken from Computer Report No. 2148 |
