Support For The Coalition Up Marginally - ALP 53%; L-NP 47%
| Finding No. 4096 -
October 28, 2006 |
Primary support for the Coalition Government during mid October was up 1.5% to 40.5% (down 5.9% since the 2004 election), while support for the ALP was down 0.5% to 41.5% (up 3.9% since the 2004 election).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 53% (down 1.5%), L-NP 47% (up 1.5%). If an election had been held during the last fortnight the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8.5% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 0.5%).
On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 58.5% (unchanged) think the L-NP will win, 28.5% (up 0.5%) think the ALP will win and 13% (down 0.5%) can’t say.
Gary Morgan says:
“With an interest rate rise (on Melbourne Cup day) there will be an immediate effect on the mood of electors, especially considering the L-NP’s last election campaign revolved around economic capability and it’s track record of low interest rates compared to Labor Government’s of the past.
“The ALP is still ahead of the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis (53% cf. 47%) and more interest rate rises will further consolidate the ALP’s winning position in the lead up to next year’s Federal election.
“However, now 58.5% (unchanged) think the L-NP will win the next Federal election compared to only 28.5% who think the ALP will win. When this gap begins to narrow, it will be a clear indication that the effect of interest rate rises is detrimental to the Government’s chances of being re-elected next year.”
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted on the weekends of October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,055 electors.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
| March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
53 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
September 2/3 & 9/10 |
September 16/17 & 23/24 |
September 30/October 1 & 7/8 |
October 14/15 & 21/22 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats# |
21 |
79 |
27 |
73 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
|
The Greens |
26 |
74 |
25.5 |
74.5 |
15 |
85 |
22 |
78 |
|
Family First# |
54 |
46 |
74 |
26 |
63 |
37 |
35 |
65 |
|
One Nation# |
56.5 |
43.5 |
52 |
48 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
68.5 |
31.5 |
|
Independent/Other |
52.5 |
47.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
40 |
60 |
54.5 |
45.5 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
2000 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 4096 is taken from Computer Report No. 2152
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