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CLICK HERE TO SEE VICTORIAN APPROVAL AND BETTER PREMIER RATINGS (Released November 1)

A special telephone Morgan Poll of Victorian electors conducted this week (October 24/25/26) finds the ALP ahead of the L-NP Coalition by ten points on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55%, L-NP 45%.

If a Victorian State Election were held today the ALP would win, but with a reduced majority from the 2002 State Election (ALP 57.8%; L-NP 42.2%).

Primary support for the ALP was 41%, L-NP 38%, The Greens 12%, Australian Democrats 2.5%, Family First 1% and Independents/Other 5.5%.

Since the ALP’s 2002 Election victory, their primary support has fallen 6.9% from 47.9% to 41%, while L-NP support is down 0.2% from 38.2% to 38%.

Gary Morgan says:

“If an interest rate rise occurs (on Melbourne Cup day) there will be a change in the mood of the electorate with less than a month until State election day. 

“The allocation of preferences will play a pivotal role in the upcoming election as a growing amount of disaffected ALP and L-NP voters are supporting the minor parties, particularly the Greens, whose vote has jumped 4% to 12% since the last Victorian Morgan Poll conducted on September 20/21."

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted on October 24/25/26, 2006, in which electors gave reasons as to who they thought the better Premier would be:

Supporters of Premier Bracks cited his experience and track record as the main reason for their support of him: “Bracks has done a good job for the last two terms, so I’d give him another go”, “I think Bracks has the experience over the last seven years. He knows the best interests of Victoria and I think his policies are pretty good. The water policies seem alright with the pipeline to Bendigo and Ballarat. He should cut down on poker machines in poorer areas of Melbourne”, “Bracks is experienced already in the job — you know what you are getting, whereas you don’t with Baillieu” and “Bracks has really good ideas and is committed to implementing them. I think he understands people and I think that is something politicians need to have”.

Mr Baillieu still remains largely unknown according to a number of electors: “I do not know much about Baillieu so can’t really give an opinion on him. Because I know much about Bracks and his work, I would prefer him”, “I have no idea about Baillieu”, “I don’t know about Baillieu at all” and “I only prefer Bracks because I’m not sure about the other guy (Baillieu)”.

A key drawing point for supporters of Mr Baillieu and the L-NP is the perception that they are better managers of the economy than Labor: “Baillieu has better command of leadership qualities, a better understanding of economic factors and a more energetic approach to the future”, “We need a change — Baillieu represents the business component”, “Baillieu is better in business” and “I think Bracks has lost contact with reality and wasted a lot of money on Spencer Street redevelopment and other projects”.

There are also a number of electors who think that after two terms of the Bracks Government that it is time for a change: “I think we need a change. Bracks has failed in things he has promised”, “Bracks has been in office long enough and has not done a great job”, “I don’t like what Bracks has done for Victoria at all, so I think we have to give Baillieu a go” and “Bracks has gone back on a few promises lately — a change could be a good thing”.

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of October 24/25/26, 2006, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 373* male and female electors.

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

*A combined sample of 508 Victorian electors (October 9/10 & 24/25/26) showed the same result as published in this release.

Primary Voting Intention

		Telephone Morgan Poll
	Vic State Election November 30, 2002	August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006	September 20/21, 2006	October 24/25/26, 2006
	%	%	%	%
ALP	47.9	42.5	41	41
L-NP	38.2	45	44	38
Greens	9.7	7	8	12
Democrats	0.1	1.5	1	2.5
Family First	^	1	0.5	1
Independents/ Others	4.1	3	5.5	5.5
Total	100	100	100	100

^The Family First was launched in August 2004

Two-Party Preferred

		Telephone Morgan Poll
	Vic State Election November 30, 2002	August 16/17 & 29/30/31, 2006	September 20/21, 2006	October 24/25/26, 2006
	%	%	%	%
ALP	57.8	50	52	55
L-NP	42.2	50	48	45
Total	100	100	100	100

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

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