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A majority of Victorian voters think Steve Bracks (54%, down 3% from 57% in August) would make a better Premier than Ted Baillieu (33%, down 2% from 35% in August). Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier is highest amongst ALP (87%) and Greens supporters (75%) compared to just 20% of L-NP supporters. Significantly more men than women (61% cf. 48%) believe that Bracks would make a better premier than Baillieu. These are the main findings of a special Morgan Poll conducted on the evenings of October 9/10 & 24/25/26.

Now 50% of Victorians (up 1% from 49% in August) approve of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier, 37% (down 1%) disapprove and 13% (unchanged) can’t say.

Approval of Opposition Leader Mr Baillieu is 45% (down 1% from 46% in August), while 30% (up 7%) disapprove, with still a significant 25% (down 6%) undecided. Mr Baillieu’s approval rating is marginally higher among men (48%) and women (42%) and highest for those aged 18-24 (48%).

Analysis by “groups of seats” classified by the “swing” required to change the sitting member (marginal, losable or safe) shows that in the “marginal and losable” ALP seats (28 seats with a swing of 9.8% or less to change the member to the L-NP) showed approval of Mr Baillieu to be higher at 50% while approval of Mr Bracks is at 46%. However, in these seats a majority (52%) prefer Mr Bracks as Premier, 39% Mr Baillieu while 9% can’t say. These are the seats where Mr Baillieu has directed his efforts since becoming Liberal Party leader.

Gary Morgan says:

“Amongst all Victorians, Mr Bracks has a higher approval rating than Mr Baillieu; however, in the ALP’s ‘marginal and losable’ seats Mr Baillieu has a higher approval rating than Mr Bracks (50% cf. 46%).

“This is good news for Mr Baillieu, as it is these seats where he has directed most of his attention since he became Liberal Party leader on May 8 this year.

“The latest Morgan Poll (published on Saturday October 28) showed that ‘if an election were held today’, the ALP would win the election with a reduced majority; however, a lot can happen between now and the election on November 25.”

Electors gave reasons as to who they thought the better Premier would be as part of special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on October 24/25/26, 2006, in which:

Supporters of Premier Bracks cited his experience and track record as the main reason for their support of him: “Bracks has done a good job for the last two terms, so I’d give him another go”, “I think Bracks has the experience over the last seven years. He knows the best interests of Victoria and I think his policies are pretty good. The water policies seem alright with the pipeline to Bendigo and Ballarat. He should cut down on poker machines in poorer areas of Melbourne”, “Bracks is experienced already in the job — you know what you are getting, whereas you don’t with Baillieu” and “Bracks has really good ideas and is committed to implementing them. I think he understands people and I think that is something politicians need to have”.

Mr Baillieu still remains largely unknown according to a number of electors: “I do not know much about Baillieu so can’t really give an opinion on him. Because I know much about Bracks and his work, I would prefer him”, “I have no idea about Baillieu”, “I don’t know about Baillieu at all” and “I only prefer Bracks because I’m not sure about the other guy (Baillieu)”.

A key drawing point for supporters of Mr Baillieu and the L-NP is the perception that they are better managers of the economy than Labor: “Baillieu has better command of leadership qualities, a better understanding of economic factors and a more energetic approach to the future”, “We need a change — Baillieu represents the business component”, “Baillieu is better in business” and “I think Bracks has lost contact with reality and wasted a lot of money on Spencer Street redevelopment and other projects”.

There are also a number of electors who think that after two terms of the Bracks Government that it is time for a change: “I think we need a change. Bracks has failed in things he has promised”, “Bracks has been in office long enough and has not done a great job”, “I don’t like what Bracks has done for Victoria at all, so I think we have to give Baillieu a go” and “Bracks has gone back on a few promises lately — a change could be a good thing”.

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of October 9/10 & 24/25/26, 2006, with a Victoria-wide cross section of 508 electors.

1. Better Premier

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr Bracks and Mr Baillieu. In your opinion, who would make the better Premier — Mr Bracks or Mr Baillieu?”

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier is higher among men (61%) than women (48%). Bracks’ support is highest with voters aged 18-24 (78%). Support for Mr Baillieu as better Premier is higher among women (37%) than men (29%) and highest amongst those aged 50+ (39%).

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Sex and Age
	Apr* 2006	July 2006	Aug 2006	Oct 2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Bracks	67	53	57	54	61	48	78	53	53	48
Baillieu	18	23	35	33	29	37	12	30	36	39
Can't say	15	24	8	13	10	15	10	17	11	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
*Robert Doyle (Liberal Leader)

Support for Mr Bracks as better Premier is highest amongst ALP (87%) and Greens supporters (75%). A higher proportion of L-NP supporters think Mr Baillieu (75%) would be a better Premier than Bracks (20%).

	Electors 18+				Analysis by State Voting Intention & Seat Status
	Apr* 2006	July  2006	Aug  2006	Oct  2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other/ Can’t say	ALP “Marginal & losable” (28 seats)	Liberal “Marginal” (13 seats)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Bracks	67	53	57	54	87	20	75	37	52	55
Baillieu	18	23	35	33	6	75	10	20	39	35
Can't say	15	24	8	13	7	5	15	43	9	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Robert Doyle (Liberal Leader)

2. Approval of Leaders

Premier

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Bracks is handling his job as Premier?”

Mr Bracks’ approval is higher among men (55%) than women (45%) and highest in those aged 18-24 (70%) followed by those aged 25-34 (49%). Bracks’ disapproval rating was highest amongst those aged 50+ (44%).

	Electors 18+							Analysis by Sex and Age
	May* 1995	Dec* 1995	May* 1996	Apr 2006	Jul 2006	Aug 2006	Oct 2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	52	44	57	56	51	49	50	55	45	70	49	49	45
Disapprove	40	47	38	34	35	38	37	36	38	13	40	37	44
Can't say	8	9	5	10	14	13	13	9	17	17	11	14	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
*Jeff Kennett (Premier)

Mr Bracks’ approval rating amongst ALP supporters is 74%, while disapproval is highest among L-NP supporters (67%).

	Electors 18+							Analysis by State Voting Intention & Seat Status
	May* 1995	Dec* 1995	May* 1996	Apr  2006	Jul  2006	Aug  2006	Oct  2006	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other/ Can’t say	ALP “Marginal & losable” (28 seats)	Liberal “Marginal” (13 seats)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	52	44	57	56	51	49	50	74	24	56	46	46	47
Disapprove	40	47	38	34	35	38	37	15	67	27	31	42	39
Can't say	8	9	5	10	14	13	13	11	9	18	23	12	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*Jeff Kennett (Premier)

Opposition Leader

Electors were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Baillieu is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Mr Baillieu’s approval rating is higher among men (48%) than women (42%) and highest for those aged 18-24 (48%).

	Electors 18+							Analysis by Sex and Age
	May* 1995	Dec* 1995	May* 1996	Apr^ 2006	Jul 2006	Aug 2006	Oct 2006	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	26	36	30	36	46	45	48	42	48	37	46	46
Disapprove	50	49	45	51	13	23	30	31	29	16	43	26	31
Can't say	23	25	19	19	51	31	25	21	29	36	20	28	23
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)
^ Robert Doyle (Opposition Leader)

Mr Baillieu’s approval rating is highest amongst L-NP supporters (64%) with only 19% of L-NP supporters disapprove of the job he is doing.

	Electors 18+							Analysis by State Voting Intention & Seat Status
	May* 1995	Dec* 1995	May* 1996	Apr^ 2006	Jul  2006	Aug  2006	Oct  2006		ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other/ Can’t say	ALP “Marginal & losable” (28 seats)	Liberal “Marginal” (13 seats)
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	27	26	36	30	36	46	45		39	64	30	25	50	52
Disapprove	50	49	45	51	13	23	30		39	19	41	22	28	25
Can't say	23	25	19	19	51	31	25		22	17	29	53	22	23
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100		100	100	100	100	100	100

*John Brumby (Opposition Leader)
^ Robert Doyle (Opposition Leader)

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of October 9/10 & 24/25/26, 2006, with a cross section of 508 Victorian electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

Roy Morgan Detailed Analysis

A detailed analysis of this special Roy Morgan survey can be purchased for $6,800 plus GST (which includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification

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