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In news that augurs well for the Bracks Government, a majority (59%) of Victorian electors say Victoria is heading in the right direction compared to 29% who say the State is heading in the wrong direction (12% can’t say), a special Roy Morgan telephone survey finds.

A higher proportion of metropolitan residents say Victoria is heading in the right direction than country residents (60% cf. 56%), while 78% of ALP voters say Victoria is heading in the right direction compared to 41% of L-NP voters and 52% of Greens voters.

In other good news for the State Government, 70% of Victorian electors think the ALP will win the upcoming election, 16% think the L-NP will be victorious, while 14% can’t say.

A higher proportion of metropolitan residents think the ALP will win compared to country residents (72% cf. 63%).

Eight-in-ten (80%) ALP voters think their party will win the November 25 election, while only 25% of L-NP voters think their party will be successful.

Gary Morgan says:

“It is unlikely that a change in Government will occur with 59% of Victorians thinking Victoria is heading in the right direction, but at present it is likely that the ALP will have a reduced majority, as highlighted in the October Victorian Morgan Poll.

“Eighty per cent of ALP voters think the Bracks Government will be returned for a third term with 62% of L-NP voters expecting an ALP victory — just 25% L-NP voters think their party will be successful.

“However, the sleeper issue remains interest rates and what affect a rate rise on Melbourne Cup day will have on the mood of the electorate in the lead up to the Victorian election on November 25.”

1. Victoria heading in the right direction

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Victoria are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Six-in-ten Victorian city residents say the state is heading in the right direction with country residents marginally more pessimistic (56%). ALP supporters are significantly more likely than L-NP supporters to say Victoria is heading in the right direction (78% cf. 41%).

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	Oct 2006	City	Country	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	59	60	56	78	41	52	59
Wrong direction	29	29	31	13	46	37	25
Can't say	12	11	13	9	13	11	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

2. Think will win the election

Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the State Election in November?”

Eight-in-ten ALP voters think their party will win the November 25 election, while only 25% of L-NP voters think their party will be successful.

	Victorian Electors 18+	Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention
	Oct 2006	City	Country	ALP	L-NP	Greens	Other/ Can’t say
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	70	72	63	80	62	78	57
L-NP	16	15	18	10	25	16	8
Can't say	14	13	19	10	13	6	35
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

This special Roy Morgan telephone survey was conducted on the evenings of October 9/10 & 24/25/26, 2006, with a cross section of 508 Victorian electors. More details are available on a subscription basis.

Roy Morgan Detailed Analysis

A detailed analysis of this special Roy Morgan survey can be purchased for $6,800 plus GST (which includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of
the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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