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In NSW: L-NP Makes Up Some Ground - ALP 53% L-NP 47%

Finding No. 4102 - November 10, 2006

During October, primary support for the ALP Government dropped 5% to 43%, while primary support for the L-NP Opposition was up a significant 5.5% to 40%, the latest Morgan Poll finds (taken before the Milton Orkopoulos scandal involving serious allegations of sexual and ethical misconduct emerged).

On a two-party preferred basis (with preferences distributed as they were at the 2003 State Election), the ALP is down 5.5% to 53% — a lead of six percentage points over the L-NP (47%, up 5.5%).

If a NSW State Election had been held during October, the ALP would have won.

Among the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 5.5% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 1% (down 1%), Christian Democrats 1% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 7.5% (up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The L-NP Opposition made up some important ground during October, with their primary support up 5.5% to 40%, which is 3% behind the ALP at 43% (down 5.5%).

“The ALP still has a six-point lead on a two-party preferred basis (53% cf. 47%). If a NSW State Election had been held during October the ALP would have won.

“However, with serious allegations pending against the recently sacked Milton Orkopoulos, the ongoing calls for Local Government MP Kerry Hickey to be sacked because of four speeding offences since March 2002 and the recent dumping of Police Minister Carl Scully, things would be different today!”

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 83% cf L-NP — 17%), Family First (ALP — 65% cf L-NP — 35%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 51% cf L-NP — 49%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 55.5% cf ALP — 44.5%) favoured the State Government, while supporters of the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 88%, ALP — 12%) and One Nation (L-NP — 73.5% cf ALP — 16.5%) favoured the Opposition.

During the period:

• Sydney based Muslim cleric Sheik Taj el-Din Al Hilali received intense criticism for comments he made in a religious sermon likening women who dressed provocatively to “uncovered meat”. Al Hilali was taken to hospital after collapsing at a meeting convened to decide his fate.

• NSW Police Minister Carl Scully was sacked for misleading Parliament in relation to comments he made about the Cronulla riots. Deputy Premier John Watkins was appointed as the new Police Minister.

• Prime Minister John Howard travelled through drought affected regions of NSW. The State Opposition criticised the Iemma Government for acting too late on drought related issues.

• In the midst of one of the hottest October’s on record, NSW assistant police commissioner Dennis Clifford expressed concern at the number of juveniles alleged to have lit fires deliberately.

• Four teenagers were killed in a one-car accident near the coastal resort of Byron Bay. However, the Government said it wouldn’t rush into making changes to laws governing young drivers.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on October 14/15, 2006:

Supporters of the Government cited Labor’s social policies as a major drawing card, with the Liberals right-wing connections reaffirming this position according to some ALP voters: “The more the Labor Party is in power the better. I do not like workplace agreements and GST — Liberal support only the bosses,” “I think the way the country is going, Labor seems to be the only party favouring the community and people,” “I trust the ALP more than the Liberals. Labor are for the battlers and Liberals are for the USA, Hillsong (religious group) and big business” and “The Liberal Party is becoming too right-wing — they’re dominated by the religious right, examples David Clarke, Hillsong and Opus Dei”.

Morris Iemma remains a popular choice as Premier for ALP voters: “Morris Iemma is trustworthy and safe. He is down-to-earth — more on our level,” “I feel Mr Iemma and his Government deserves a chance to prove themselves” and “I like Mr Iemma — I think he presents himself well”.

A large amount of Liberal supporters are dissatisfied with the ALP’s management of the economy, particularly in regards to infrastructure: “NSW needs Liberal experience in managing money. At Federal level there is plenty of money, but the State is broke. I do not like tolls when already paying fuel tax,” “NSW is in a terrible state — in debt, water and infrastructure are run down. The cash from property taxes has been squandered,” “The ALP are not competent to run State infrastructure, but I’m not sure of Debnam,” “I am totally dissatisfied with the way the Labor Party has let the infrastructure run down” and “I don’t think Labor can handle money — they spend too much”.

Other Liberal supporters want a change in power due to a general lack of Government action: “Labor has had a fair go and nothing has improved,” “I don’t think the Labor Party has down a good job for the length of time they’ve been in” and “I want a change because the blokes have been in long enough and haven’t fixed up NSW — water for one thing”.

This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,468 electors throughout New South Wales during October 2006.

Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

For more information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Christian Dems#	Ind./ Others#

Election March 25, 1995	41.3	43.9	2.9	2.6	n/a	+	~	9.3
Election March 27, 1999	42.2	33.7 (8.8)	3.3	3.9	7.5	+	~	9.4
Election March 22, 2003	42.6	34.6 (9.7)	0.9	8.3	1.3	+	~	12.3

Morgan Poll
February 2004	49.5	36(3)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	5.5
March 2004	44	37.5(3.5)	2	8.5	1	+	~	7
April 2004	43.5	37.5(3.5)	1.5	10.5	0.5	+	~	6.5
May 2004	42.5	37.5(3)	2	9.5	1	+	~	7.5
June 2004	40.5	41(3)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
July 2004	44	38 (4)	1.5	10	1	+	~	5.5
August 2004	41.5	40 (2.5)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
September 2004	40	41 (3)	1.5	9	0.5	+	~	8
October 2004	42	43.5 (4.5)	1.5	7	1	+	~	5
November 2004	42.5	40.5 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	+	~	6.5
December 2004	36	44.5 (3)	1.5	9	1.5	+	~	7.5
January 2005	42.5	41.5 (2.5)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	7
February 2005	41.5	42 (3)	1.5	8	0.5	+	~	6.5
March 2005	39.5	43.5 (3)	0.5	9	0.5	+	~	7
April 2005	42	40.5 (2.5)	1.5	7.5	1.5	+	~	7
May 2005	41	42 (3)	2	7.5	0.5	+	~	7
June 2005	42.5	39.5 (2.5)	1	8	0.5	+	~	8.5
July 2005	42	39 (4)	1	7	1	+	~	10
August 2005	48	35.5 (4)	0.5	7.5	1	2	~	5.5
September 2005	43.5	37 (5)	1.5	8	1	1.5	~	7.5
October 2005	43.5	36.5 (3)	1.5	9	1	2	1.5	5
November 2005	43	37 (4)	1.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	2	6
December 2005	43.5	36 (4)	0.5	10.5	1	1.5	1	6
January 2006	43	36.5 (4.5)	1.5	8.5	1	2	1.5	6
February 2006	39	41 (5)	1.5	7	1.5	1.5	2	6.5
March 2006	43	40 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	1	1	4.5
April 2006	42.5	37.5 (2.5)	2	8.5	1	1.5	0.5	6.5
May 2006	42.5	38.5 (4.5)	2	7	1	2	1.5	5.5
June 2006	46	35.5 (3)	2	7	0.5	2.5	1.5	5
July 2006	42.5	41 (4)	1.5	6.5	1	1.5	1.5	4.5
August 2006	49.5	34 (3.5)	1.5	6	0.5	2	0.5	6
September 2006	48	34.5 (2)	1.5	6.5	1	2	1	5.5
October 2006	43	40 (4.5)	1.5	5.5	0.5	1	1	7.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP

Election March 25, 1995	49	51
Election March 27, 1999	56	44
Election March 22, 2003	56.2^**	43.8^**

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2003 election
February 2004	59.5	40.5	58	42
March 2004	57	43	55	45
April 2004	57	43	55	45
May 2004	56.5	43.5	54.5	45.5
June 2004	53	47	51.5	48.5
July 2004	56.5	43.5	55	45
August 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
September 2004	54.5	45.5	51.5	48.5
October 2004	52.5	47.5	50.5	49.5
November 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
December 2004	48.5	51.5	47.5	52.5
January 2005	53	47	52	48
February 2005	52	48	51.5	48.5
March 2005	51	49	49.5	50.5
April 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
May 2005	53	47	51	49
June 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
July 2005	54.5	45.5	53.5	46.5
August 2005	58	42	58	42
September 2005	55.5	44.5	55	45
October 2005	56.5	43.5	55.5	44.5
November 2005	55.5	44.5	55	45
December 2005	57.5	42.5	55.5	44.5
January 2006	56	44	55	45
February 2006	52	48	51	49
March 2006	54.5	45.5	53	47
April 2006	55.5	44.5	54.5	45.5
May 2006	55.5	44.5	54	46
June 2006	58	42	57	43
July 2006	54	46	52.5	47.5
August 2006	60	40	59.5	40.5
September 2006	59	41	58.5	41.5
October 2006	53	47	53	47

^Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

** The State Electoral Office of New South Wales has not released a two-party preferred vote from the March 2003 State election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	July 2006		August 2006		September 2006		October 2006
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Australian Democrats#	59	41	59	41	78	22	51	49
The Greens	93.5	6.5	82.5	17.5	74	26	83	17
One Nation#	62.5	37.5	62	38	63	37	26.5	73.5
Family First#	67	33	40	60	44	56	65	35
Christian Democrats#	41.5	58.5	63	37	26.5	73.5	12	88
Independent/Other#	61	39	56	44	55	45	55.5	44.5

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1500

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

# Results from sample sizes fewer than 50 should be treated with caution.

+ The Family First Vote was first split from the Independent/Other vote in New South Wales in September, 2005

~ The Christian Democratic Party was split from the Independent/Other Vote In New South Wales in October 2005

Sample: 1,468 electors

Interviewed: October 2006

5.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 4102 is taken from Computer Report No. 2154