In South Australia: ALP Government Hold A Massive Lead
| Finding No. 4104 -
November 11, 2006 |
During September — October, primary support for the South Australian ALP Government increased 1.5% to 53% — 7.8% above their March 2006 election result of 45.2%. Support for the Liberal Party was up 3% to 30.5%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 South Australian election, the ALP is 62% (down 1%); Liberal 38% (up 1%).
If a South Australian State Election were held in September — October, the ALP would have won easily.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 5% (down 0.5%), Family First 3.5% (down 0.5%), the Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (down 3.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“The ALP’s primary support of 53% is their best result in more than a year and although Liberal primary support is up 3% to 30.5%, they are still trailing significantly on a two-party preferred basis — ALP 62%, Liberal 38%.
“If a South Australian State Election had been held during September/October period, the ALP would have won with an increased majority.”
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 80.5% cf Lib. — 19.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 66.5% cf. Lib. — 33.5%), One Nation (ALP 65.5% — Lib. 34.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 70.5% cf. Lib. — 29.5%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of supporters of Family First (Lib. 62% — ALP 38%) favoured the L-NP Opposition.
This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 595 electors throughout South Australia on the weekends of September and October.
Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
Liberal |
Aust.
Dem.# |
Family
First#^ |
The
Greens# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others#* |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election February 9, 2002 |
36.3 |
40 |
7.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
8.8 |
| Election March 18, 2006 |
45.2 |
34 |
2.9 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
0.3 |
5.2 |
| |
| May - June 2003 |
52 |
32 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July - August 2003 |
48 |
30 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
| September - October 2003 |
47 |
33 |
6 |
1.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
7 |
| November - December 2003 |
45 |
34.5 |
7 |
1 |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
| January - February 2004 |
53 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
4 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March - April 2004 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| May - June 2004 |
51 |
32.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
4 |
| July - August 2004 |
53 |
33 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
53.5 |
33 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| November - December 2004 |
50.5 |
36 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3 |
| January - February 2005 |
45 |
38.5 |
4 |
4 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| March - April 2005 |
44.5 |
38 |
4 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
5 |
| May - June 2005 |
54 |
33 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| July - August 2005 |
53 |
32 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
50 |
33 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| November - December 2005 |
49 |
32 |
4 |
5.5 |
4 |
1 |
4.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
50.5 |
33 |
3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| February — March 11/12 2006 |
50.5 |
31 |
3.5 |
3 |
6 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
- Before election announcement
|
50.5 |
31.5 |
5 |
3.5 |
4 |
- |
5.5 |
- After election announcement
|
50.5 |
30.5 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
| March - April 2006 |
50 |
26.5 |
3 |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
9 |
| May - June 2006 |
48 |
31.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
4.5 |
- |
9.5 |
| July - August 2006 |
51.5 |
27.5 |
2 |
4 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
9 |
| September — October 2006 |
53 |
30.5 |
2 |
3.5 |
5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
* Includes votes for the National Party
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
| Election February 9, 2002 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
|
|
| Election March 18, 2006 |
56.8 |
43.2 |
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
ALP |
Liberal |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| July - August 2003 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
| September - October 2003 |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
| November - December 2003 |
58 |
42 |
56 |
44 |
| January - February 2004 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| March - April 2004 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
59 |
41 |
| May - June 2004 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
60 |
40 |
| July - August 2004 |
63 |
37 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
| November - December 2004 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58 |
42 |
| January - February 2005 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
| March - April 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54 |
46 |
| May - June 2005 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| July - August 2005 |
62 |
38 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| November - December 2005 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| February — March 11/12 2006 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
- Before election announcement
|
61.5 |
38.5 |
60 |
40 |
- After election announcement
|
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
| March - April 2006 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
62 |
38 |
| May - June 2006 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
59 |
41 |
| July - August 2006 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63 |
37 |
| September — October 2006 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
62 |
38 |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
| |
Mar - Apr 2006 |
May - Jun 2006 |
Jul - Aug 2006 |
Sep - Oct 2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats# |
81 |
19 |
53 |
47 |
66 |
34 |
66.5 |
33.5 |
| Family First# |
33 |
67 |
21.5 |
78.5 |
36 |
64 |
38 |
62 |
| The Greens # |
92.5 |
7.5 |
77 |
23 |
100 |
- |
80.5 |
19.5 |
| One Nation # |
- |
100 |
- |
- |
41.5 |
58.5 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
| Independent/Other # |
56 |
44 |
52 |
48 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
70.5 |
29.5 |
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 595 electors
Interviewed: September - October 2006.
3.5% (unchanged)) did not name a party. |
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
Finding No. 4104 is taken from Computer Report No. 2156 |
