[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

During September — October, primary support for the Western Australian ALP was down 1% to 47% while L-NP support increased by 2.5% to 39%, the latest Morgan Poll finds (taken before Small Business Minister Norm Marlborough and former Premier Brian Burke were forced to quit the Labor Party in the wake of a Corruption and Crime Commission probe).

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2005 State election, ALP support was 55% (down 1.5%), a 10 percentage point lead over the L-NP (45%, up 1.5%).

If a Western Australian State election had been held in September - October, the ALP would have won easily.

Among the minor parties support for the Greens was 8.5% (up 1%), the Christian Democratic Party 1.5% (unchanged), the Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 0.5% (down 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (down 1%).

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 84.5% cf. L-NP — 15.5%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 72.5% cf. L-NP — 27.5%), and Other Parties and Independent candidates (ALP — 60% cf. L-NP — 40%) favoured the ALP State Government, while the preferences of supporters of Family First (L-NP — 100% cf. ALP — 0%), One Nation (L-NP — 100% cf. ALP — 0%), and the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 89% cf. ALP — 11%) favoured the L-NP Opposition.

This Morgan Poll on Western Australia State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 676 electors throughout Western Australia on the weekends of September and October 2006.

Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today, which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

WESTERN AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY(%)
PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	CDP#	Ind./Others#

Election December 14, 1996	35.8	45.7	5.1	4.7	N/A	^	~	8.7
Election February 10, 2001	37.2	34.4	2.6	7.3	9.6	^	~	8.9
Election February 26, 2005	41.9	39.3	>	7.6	1.6	2	2.9	4.7

Morgan Poll
March - April 2005	48	35	0.5	8	1.5	1.5	2.5	3
May - June 2005	43.5	40	1	7	1.5	3	2	2
July - August 2005	42.5	39	1.5	7	2.5	2.5	2	3
September - October 2005	41.5	38.5	1.5	10	1	1.5	1.5	4.5
November - December 2005	45	38	1.5	9	0.5	2	0.5	3.5
January - February 2006	49.5	37.5	1	6	1.5	1.5	1	2
March - April 2006	45.5	39	1.5	5.5	1	1.5	2.5	3.5
May - June 2006	47.5	38	2	6	1	1.5	1.5	2.5
July - August 2006	48	36.5	1.5	7.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	3
September - October 2006	47	39	1	8.5	0.5	0.5	1.5	2

#Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^Family First was launched in August 2004

> The Australian Democrats did not have anyone stand for the Legislative Assembly in 2005

~ The Christian Democratic Party had only a minor percentage of the vote before 2005 and were classed in 'Other Parties and Independent Candidates'

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP

Election December 14, 1996	44.8	55.2
Election February 10, 2001	52.7**	47.3**
Election February 26, 2005	52.3**	47.7**

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2005 election
	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
March - April 2005	57.5	42.5	57.5	42.5
May - June 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
July - August, 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
September - October 2005	53	47	52.5	47.5
November - December 2005	55.5	44.5	54.5	45.5
January - February 2006	57.5	42.5	56.5	43.5
March - April 2006	54.5	54.5	54	46
May - June 2006	56	44	55.5	44.5
July - August 2006	58	42	56.5	43.5
September - October 2006	56	44	55	45

**Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

Note: The Western Australian Electoral Commission has not released a Two-Party preferred vote for the February 10, 2001 State Election or the February 26, 2005 State Election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	March - April 2006		May - June 2006		July - August 2006		September - October 2006
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Australian Democrats#	68	32	83	17	81	19	72.5	27.5
The Greens #	68.5	31.5	66	34	76	24	84.5	15.5
One Nation #	35.5	64.5	83.5	16.5	-	100	-	100
Family First #	88.5	11.5	26	74	54	46	-	100
CDP#	7	93	32.5	67.5	17.5	82.5	11	89
Independent/Other#	51	49	54.5	45.5	63.5	36.5	60	40

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Note: One Nation Party did not stand candidates for the Legislative Assembly at the December 14, 1996 election.

Sample: 676 electors

Interviewed: September & October 2006

5.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*40%-60%*	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

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