VIC: With A Week To Go: ALP Set To Win Victorian Election With Reduced Majority
| Finding No. 4109 -
November 20, 2006 |
A special Nine Network Morgan Poll conducted by telephone this weekend (November 17/18/19) finds the ALP ahead of the Liberal-National Party by 10 points on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 55%, L-NP 45%.
If a Victorian State Election had been held this weekend the ALP would have won, but with a reduced majority from the 2002 State Election (ALP 57.8%; Liberal-National Party 42.2%).
Primary support for the ALP was 44% (down 3.9% since the 2002 election), Liberal-National Party 38% (Liberal 34%, National 4% — about the same as the 2002 election result), The Greens 13.5% (up 3.8% since the 2002 election), Family First 2.5% and Independents/Other 2% (down 2.1% since the 2002 election).
A key contributing factor to the final election outcome will be where the relatively high 7.5% (up 2.5% since October 24/25/26) that remain undecided direct their vote.
Analysis by groups of seats shows that with Liberal preferences, the Greens have a good chance of winning some inner city Melbourne seats particularly Melbourne and Richmond. The Liberals could gain seats in the fairly safe ALP country seats in the Ballarat and Geelong areas, with the outcome being determined by preferences of Nationals, Greens, Family First and Independents.
Most Victorian electors (72%) think the ALP will win the upcoming election, only 13% think the L-NP will be victorious, while 15% can’t say.
A higher proportion of metropolitan residents think the ALP will win compared to country residents (74% cf. 67%).
More than eight-in-ten (82%) ALP voters think their party will win the November 25 election, while only 22% of Liberal-National Party voters think their party will be successful.
An October Morgan Poll found 59% of Victorians think the state is heading in the right direction, 29% said Victoria was heading in the wrong direction (12% couldn’t say).
These are the main findings of a special Victorian voting intention Morgan Poll conducted with 778 electors for the Channel Nine Network this weekend.
The results of a Victorian Legislative Council survey will be released tomorrow night (Monday November 20, 2006) by the Nine Network.
Gary Morgan says:
“With less than a week before the Victorian election, the ALP is set to win with a reduced majority. However, a week is a long time in politics — a lot can happen from now until Election Day next Saturday.
“Minor party preferences will play a pivotal role in many seats, as a growing number of disaffected ALP and Liberal-National Party voters are supporting the minor parties, particularly the Greens and Family First.”
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was also conducted over the weekend (November 17/18/19, 2006) when electors were asked to list their concerns about how each party would govern:
Electors’ concerns if the Labor Party were re-elected again were very focussed on ‘broken promises’ and what they considered to be the ALP’s failure to achieve in the areas that are important like education, health and water:
• “They are liars — they haven’t carried through on their promises.”
• “Their policies on poker machines show that they are not honest.”
• “They haven’t kept their promises in schools, infrastructure, the health system and public transport.”
• “They made all these promises last election and they still wouldn’t do anything.”
• “I’m concerned about their inactivity — they get into Parliament and totally ignore all their policy promises.”
• “They promise you everything and give nothing and the rich get richer and the poor gets poorer.”
• “Bracks will just go back on his policies, like he did on Eastlink.”
• “I’m concerned about wages, health and education — they promised a lot but can’t deliver.”
• “The fact that the Labor Party haven’t done enough in their last term particularly in relation to water, health and education.”
Water management, on top of wider environmental issues, also remains a concern:
• “They are taking water from country people, they’re taking our water and our living away from us.”
• “I’m very worried about the environment because I know the Labor Party aren’t doing a good job. That is why I am voting Greens.
• “The Labor Government have not done enough with water — we should all have tanks so that to water that is collected from the roofs of our houses.
Also our reservoirs and water catchments are being poorly maintained.”
• “I’m concerned that the Labor Party aren’t doing enough about our carbon dioxide emissions and climate change.”
• “The Labor Party have performed poorly on bio-diversity issues.”
• “The Labor Party don’t take environmental issues seriously enough.”
• “They have made a mess of just about everything. They should have done something about water — we have been on restrictions down here for years.”
• “Water will be my main concern every time.”
Complacency, and a concern that nothing will change if the ALP is re-elected, was also named as a concern:
• “I’m concerned that they will just give us more of the same.”
• “I’m worried that they are too comfortable — they have made some big promises and I hope they come to fruition.”
• “They have become complacent — I’d like to see them keep their promises this time.”
• “Complacency — they’re too sure of themselves.”
The degree to which the Labor Party focuses on city regions is of concern for country electors:
• “I would like the Labor Party to stop neglecting country voters.”
• “They concentrate too much on the city and forget about provincial Victoria.”
• “They forget that we live in a State — they forget about the country.”
• “They don’t care about roads in the country — all the money is spent on city roads. Country roads are bumpy with potholes.”
• “There are a number of things of concern: complacency, disregard for country needs in favour and they are not accountable nor do they need to explain the huge amounts of money that is wasted.”
Electors had a range of concerns about the Liberal Party being elected including:
Health and education:
• “I am worried that the Liberals will cut funding to health and education.”
• “I am worried that hospitals and schools will close — the Liberals will do as they wish.”
• “I have an interest in health because I have a disability, and I would like to see disability organisations get more of a hearing. The particular disability I have, we have no ongoing funding, and I think it’s an absolute disgrace.”
• “They don’t actually do much to fix the problems with education, health and the environment.”
• “Look, I’d be concerned about the contributions or support a Liberal Government would give to the health system and education — my main concern would be that the Government tends to favour business over other services to the community.”
Industrial Relations and workplace rights:
• “What the Liberals are doing in Federal Parliament they would do in the State Parliament and make ordinary working people subject to similar industrial relations. They’ll get rid of the trade union movement if they can.”
• “I am worried about our workplace rights — and the loss of penalty rates.”
• “The new industrial relations laws are a tragedy — that’s why I’m voting Labor.”
• “I’m worried about any trade agreement that may cause damage to the work place.”
• “The industrial laws and their impact on the future of our children.”
• “All the new laws against workers rights.”
The Kennett legacy:
• “When Kennett was in, look at how many people he sacked, and how many schools were closed and all the nurses and police that lost their jobs.”
• “It will go back to the way it was the last time they were in power.”
• “The last Liberal Government didn’t handle matters too well so the current one probably won’t do a good job. They privatised everything and messed things up.”
• “I’m just concerned that they are not in touch with the common people, and I still have very bad memories of Jeff Kennett.”
• “The fact that they previously sold all our health system — they shut down schools and hospitals. They say they’ll put it all back but nothing with happen — they are liars.”
• “I’m concerned that they will do just as Kennett did to get rid of the deficit and put a $100 levy on every home.”
• “The school closures last time.”
The main concerns voiced about Ted Baillieu are his ‘lack of experience’ and his ‘outside interests’:
• “Ted Baillieu has a lack of experience as the leader.”
• “I think the leader is very inexperienced in Parliament, or at least that’s the way he comes across. He’s got populist policies, but I think he’s for big business.”
• “I just feel that the man who is supposed to be their leader isn’t strong enough to be a leader.”
• “I’m a bit concerned about Ted Baillieu’s outside interests.”
• “The fact that Ted Baillieu was a real estate agent — his policies aren’t realistic.”
Other issues mentioned included concern about privatisation, water shortages (although this was of concern about both parties).
Primary Voting Intention
|
|
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
|
|
Vic State Election
Nov 30, 2002 |
Aug 16/17 & 29/30/31,
2006 |
Sep 20/21,
2006 |
Oct 24/25/26,
2006* |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
47.9 |
42.5 |
41 |
41 |
44 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
38.2 |
45 |
44 |
38 |
38* |
|
Greens |
9.7 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
13.5 |
|
Democrats |
0.1 |
1.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
- |
|
Family First |
^ |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
|
Independents/ Others |
4.1 |
3 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
2 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
* National vote: 4%
^ The Family First was launched in August 2004
Two-Party Preferred
| |
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
| |
Vic State Election
Nov 30, 2002 |
Aug 16/17 & 29/30/31,
2006 |
Sep 20/21,
2006 |
Oct 24/25/26,
2006* |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
57.8 |
50 |
52 |
55 |
55 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
42.2 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
*A combined sample of 508 Victorian electors (October 9/10 & 24/25/26) showed the same result as published in this release.
Think will win the election
Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the State Election in November?”
| |
Victorian
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention |
| |
Oct 2006 |
Nov 2006 |
City |
Country |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Other/ Can’t say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
70 |
72 |
74 |
67 |
82 |
64 |
77 |
56 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
16 |
13 |
11 |
19 |
7 |
22 |
14 |
6 |
|
Can't say |
14 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
11 |
14 |
9 |
38 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
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