VIC: The Greens And Nationals Likely To Hold Balance Of Power In The Victorian Upper House
| Finding No. 4110 -
November 21, 2006 |
Support for the ALP in the revamped Victorian Upper House (Legislative Council) is down a significant 7.5% since the 2002 State election from 47.5% to 40%, while Liberal-National Party support is down 0.9% from 38.9% to 38% (Liberal 34%, National 4%), a special Nine Network Morgan Poll conducted last weekend finds.
Support for the Greens is up 1.1% from 10.9% at the 2002 election to 12%, while National Party support is 4%. Among the other minor parties support for Family First is 3%, the Australian Democrats 2%, and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5%.
In a number of electoral regions, the fifth Upper House position is difficult to determine, particularly Western and Eastern Metro and Western Victoria. However, the likely outcome in the Legislative Council will be that the Greens and National Party will hold the balance of power.
If a Victorian Upper House election had been held last weekend the likely outcome would have been: 18 or 19 ALP; 14-16 Liberal; 3-6 Greens; two National; and possibly one Family First. This would result in the minor parties having the balance of power as neither the Labor or Liberal Party would have achieved an overall majority.
Analysis by Electoral Region (likely outcome*):
• In South-East Metro: Three ALP; two Liberal.
• In North Metro: Three ALP; one Liberal; one Greens.
• In South Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; one Greens.
• In West Metro: Two ALP; one Liberal; one Greens; with the remaining position to go to either Liberal or Greens.
• In East Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; with the remaining position to go to either Greens or Family First.
• In Western Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; with the remaining position to go to the ALP, Liberal or Greens.
• In Northern Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; one National.
• In Eastern Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; one National.
• In total: 18 or 19 ALP; 14-16 Liberal; 3-6 Greens; two National; and possibly one Family First.
* Under the new Upper House system, voters are represented by 40 members. All members are elected at each State election. Eight new and much larger electoral regions comprise five members each. Candidates must win a specific proportion of the electorate's votes to be elected. With five candidates to be elected for an Upper House (Legislative Council) region, the quota is 1/6 of the votes plus 1. These votes can either be first-preference votes for the candidate, or preferences transferred from other candidates.
These are the main findings of a special Victorian Legislative Council Morgan Poll conducted with 778 electors for the Channel Nine Network last weekend (November 17/18/19, 2006). Of all electors surveyed 7% were undecided on who would receive their Upper House vote.
Gary Morgan says:
“This special Morgan Poll shows that The Greens and National Party can expect between six and eight Victorian MLCs, which would enable them to hold the balance of power in the Victorian Upper House. Most support for The Greens is in the metropolitan seats — the Western, Southern and Northern Metro regions in particular. The Nationals can expect strong support in the Eastern and Northern Victoria regions, while Family First could win a seat with preferences.
“There is every chance the minor party vote will exceed all expectations, particularly if they follow the 2004 Family First method of soliciting votes at booths on election day.”
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was also conducted over the weekend (November 17/18/19, 2006) when electors were asked to list their concerns about how each party would govern. A brief summary is below.
Electors’ concerns if the Labor Party were re-elected again were:
• Focused on ‘broken promises’ and what they considered to be the ALP’s failure to achieve in the areas that are important like education, health and water;
• Water management, on top of wider environmental issues, also remains a concern;
• Complacency, and a concern that nothing will change if the ALP is re-elected, was also named as a concern;
• The degree to which the Labor Party focuses on city regions is of concern for country electors.
Electors had a range of concerns about the Liberal Party being elected:
• Health and education;
• Industrial Relations and workplace rights;
• The Kennett legacy;
• The main concerns voiced about Ted Baillieu are his ‘lack of experience’ and his ‘outside interests’;
• Other issues mentioned included concern about privatisation, water shortages (although this was of concern about both parties).
Primary Voting Intention
|
|
|
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
|
|
2002 Vic State Election
Lower House |
2002 Vic State Election
Upper House |
Nov 17/18/19, 2006
Lower House |
Nov 17/18/19, 2006
Upper House |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
47.9 |
47.5 |
44 |
40 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
38.2 |
38.9 |
38* |
38* |
|
Greens |
9.7 |
10.9 |
13.5 |
12 |
|
Family First |
^ |
^ |
2.5 |
3 |
|
Democrats |
0.1 |
1.8 |
- |
2 |
|
Independents/ Others |
4.1 |
0.9 |
2 |
5** |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
* National vote: 4%
** Includes 1% for the Democratic Labor Party (DLP) and 1% for People Power
^ The Family First was launched in August 2004
Two-Party Preferred
| |
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
| |
Vic State Election
Nov 30, 2002 |
Aug 16/17 & 29/30/31,
2006 |
Sep 20/21,
2006 |
Oct 24/25/26,
2006* |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
57.8 |
50 |
52 |
55 |
55 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
42.2 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
*A combined sample of 508 Victorian electors (October 9/10 & 24/25/26) showed the same result as published in this release.
Think will win the election
Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the State Election in November?”
| |
Victorian
Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention |
| |
Oct 2006 |
Nov 2006 |
City |
Country |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Other/ Can’t say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
70 |
72 |
74 |
67 |
82 |
64 |
77 |
56 |
|
Liberal, National Party |
16 |
13 |
11 |
19 |
7 |
22 |
14 |
6 |
|
Can't say |
14 |
15 |
15 |
14 |
11 |
14 |
9 |
38 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
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