VIC: Liberals Gain But ALP Still Set To Win Victorian Election With Reduced Majority - Upper House To Be Controlled By Minor Parties
| Finding No. 4111 -
November 25, 2006 |
A special telephone Nine Network Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights (November 21/22/23) finds the Liberal-National Party vote is up 2% since last weekend to 47% on a two-party preferred basis but still trailing the ALP (53%).
If Victorians vote like this tomorrow, the ALP will retain Government but with a reduced majority.
Primary support for the ALP is 42.5% (down 1.5% since last weekend and 5.4% since the 2002 election), Liberal-National Party 40.5% (Liberal 36% [up 2% since last weekend and 2.1% since the 2002 election], National 4.5% [up 0.5% since last weekend and 0.2% since the 2002 election]), The Greens 12.5% (down 1% since last weekend but up 2.8% since the 2002 election), Family First 3% (up 0.5% since last weekend) and Independents/Other 1.5% (down 0.5% since last weekend and 2.7% since the 2002 election).
Analysis by groups of seats shows the Liberals are set to win some seats in the Freeway belt covering south-eastern Melbourne and some fairly marginal ALP seats in regional Victoria. With Liberal preferences the Greens are likely to win the four inner city Melbourne seats of Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Northcote.
In the revamped Victorian Upper House (Legislative Council), support for the ALP is 39% (down 1% since last weekend and a significant 8.5% since the 2002 State election), while Liberal-National Party support is 41% (Liberal 36.5%, National 4.5%), which is up 3% since last weekend and 2.1% since the 2002 election.
Support for the Greens at 12% is up 1.1% from 10.9% at the 2002 election, while National Party support is 4.5%. Among the other minor parties support for Family First is 3.5%, the Australian Democrats 1.5%, and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3%.
The likely outcome in the Victorian Upper House is: 16-17 ALP; 16 Liberal; 3-6 Greens; 2-3 National; and possibly one Family First. This would result in the minor parties having the balance of power as neither the Labor or Liberal Party would have obtained an overall majority.
A key contributing factor to the final election outcome will be where the undecided electors (4.5% Lower House; 4% Upper House) direct their vote. History has shown that a significant proportion of voters don’t make up their mind until walking into the polling booth on Election Day.
A clear majority of Victorian electors (71%) think the ALP will win the upcoming election, only 15% think the L-NP will be victorious, while 14% can’t say.
A small majority of Victorians (53%) say they will not follow the ‘how to vote’ cards distributed by political parties as voters are walking into polling booths, 42% say they will follow the cards, while 5% can’t say. However 80% of Green votes say they will not follow the card.
These are the main findings of a special Victorian voting intention Morgan Poll conducted with 956 electors for the Channel Nine Network on November 21-23, 2006.
Gary Morgan says:
“In the last week the Liberals and Nationals have gained support in both the Lower and Upper Houses. The L-NP and Greens are likely to win ALP seats in the Legislative Assembly, while the Upper House is likely to be controlled by The Greens, Nationals and possibly Family First.
“This latest Morgan Poll was taken before KPMG revealed a significant error in the Liberal’s Budget estimates, how much notice is taken of this is unknown because most people will no doubt be watching and thinking about the First Test!
“The Morgan Poll shows the likely outcome of tomorrow’s election will be an ALP victory (with the help of Green preferences), but with a reduced majority. However, many people will decide who to vote for as they’re walking into the polling booths when they will be confronted with a barrage of voting propaganda.
“If the high Green vote doesn’t materialise, as has been the case in other elections, then the outcome will be much different.”
Primary Voting Intention (Lower House)
|
|
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
|
|
Vic State Election
Nov 30, 2002 |
Aug 16/17 & 29/30/31,
2006 |
Sep 20/21,
2006 |
Oct 24/25/26,
2006* |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
Nov 21/22/23,
2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
47.9 |
42.5 |
41 |
41 |
44 |
42.5 |
|
Liberal, National |
38.2 |
45 |
44 |
38 |
38* |
40.5** |
|
Greens |
9.7 |
7 |
8 |
12 |
13.5 |
12.5 |
|
Family First |
^ |
1 |
0.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
3 |
|
Independents/ Others |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
* National vote: 4%
** National vote: 4.5%
^ The Family First was launched in August 2004
Upper House Voting Intention
|
|
Victorian Electors 18+
Upper House Morgan Poll |
|
|
2002 Election |
Nov 17/18/19, 2006 |
Nov 21/22/23, 2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
47.5 |
40 |
39 |
|
Liberal |
34.5 |
34 |
36.5 |
|
National |
4.4 |
4 |
4.5 |
|
Total L-NP |
38.9 |
38 |
41 |
|
Greens |
10.9 |
12 |
12 |
|
Family First |
^ |
3 |
3.5 |
|
Democrats |
1.8 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
Independents/
Others |
0.9 |
5 |
3 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
^ The Family First was launched in August 2004
Upper House Analysis by Electoral Region (likely outcome*):
• In South-East Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; last position depends on preferences, possibly Greens or Family First.
• In North Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; one Greens.
• In South Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; one Greens.
• In West Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; with the remaining position to go to either the Greens or ALP.
• In East Metro: Two ALP; two Liberal; one Greens.
• In Western Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; with the remaining position likely to go to the Nationals, but possibly the Greens.
• In Northern Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; one National.
• In Eastern Victoria: Two ALP; two Liberal; one National.
• In total: 16-17 ALP; 16 Liberal; 3-6 Greens; 2-3 National; and depending on preferences, possibly one Family First.
* Under the new Upper House system, voters are represented by 40 members. All members are elected at each State election. Eight new and much larger electoral regions comprise five members each. Candidates must win a specific proportion of the electorate's votes to be elected. With five candidates to be elected for an Upper House (Legislative Council) region, the quota is 1/6 of the votes plus 1. These votes can either be first-preference votes for the candidate, or preferences transferred from other candidates.
Two-Party Preferred
|
|
Telephone Morgan Poll |
| |
Vic. Election
Nov 30, 2002 |
Aug 16/17 & 29/30/31,
2006 |
Sep 20/21,
2006 |
Oct 24/25/26,
2006* |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
Nov 21/22/23,
2006 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
57.8 |
50 |
52 |
55 |
55 |
53 |
|
L-NP |
42.2 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
45 |
47 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
*A combined sample of 508 Victorian electors (October 9/10 & 24/25/26) showed the same result as published in this release.
Think will win the election
Electors were asked: “Regardless of who you would like to win, who do you think will win the State Election in November?”
| |
Victorian Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Region and State Voting Intention |
| |
Oct
2006 |
Nov 17/18/19,
2006 |
Nov 21/22/23,
2006 |
City |
Country |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Family
First # |
Other/ Can’t say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
ALP |
70 |
72 |
71 |
73 |
66 |
84 |
59 |
82 |
56 |
55 |
|
L-NP |
16 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
8 |
25 |
8 |
25 |
14 |
|
Can't say |
14 |
15 |
14 |
12 |
19 |
8 |
16 |
10 |
19 |
31 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
How to vote cards
Electors were asked: “When you vote, will you follow a ‘How to Vote’ card, or will you decide your own preferences?”
| |
Victorian Electors 18+ |
Analysis by Sex and State Voting Intention |
| |
Nov 21/22/23, 2006 |
Men |
Women |
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
Family
First # |
Other/ Can’t say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Yes, will follow |
42 |
40 |
44 |
47 |
50 |
17 |
51 |
28 |
|
No, won’t follow |
53 |
54 |
51 |
48 |
45 |
80 |
46 |
61 |
|
Can't say |
5 |
6 |
5 |
5 |
5 |
3 |
3 |
11 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.
No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.
|
