Big Jump In ALP Vote As Rudd & Gillard Take The Helm: ALP Would Win Election With 50% Primary Support
| Finding No. 4118 -
Released in the Crikey daily newsletter on December 15 - see release below:
December 16, 2006 |
In the week following Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership, primary support for the ALP was up 9% to 50% (up 12.4% since the 2004 election), while primary support for the Coalition Government was down 7% to 34.5% (down 11.9% since the 2004 election).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 59% (up 6.5%), L-NP 41% (down 6.5%).
On the important question of who the electorate “think will win” the next Federal election, 46% (down 12%) think the L-NP will win, 39.5% (up 11%) think the ALP will win and 14.5% (up 1%) can’t say.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7% (down 2%), Family First 2.5% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%).
If an election had been held during the last weekend the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Gary Morgan says:
“Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have changed the electoral scene — John Howard and his L-NP team now have a fight on their hands.
“The last time the Morgan Poll had the ALP vote at 50% was January 25-February 1, 1986.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of December 9/10, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,065 electors.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
59 |
29 |
12 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
61 |
27 |
12 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
59.5 |
27 |
13.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
61.5 |
26 |
12.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
61.5 |
24.5 |
14 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
61 |
24.5 |
14.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
60.5 |
27 |
12.5 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
66 |
21.5 |
12.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
65 |
24 |
11 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
65 |
23.5 |
11.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
60 |
26.5 |
13.5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
61 |
27.5 |
11.5 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50 |
36.5 |
13.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
54.5 |
33 |
12.5 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
58 |
28 |
14 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
59 |
27 |
14 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
65 |
25 |
10 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
62 |
27 |
11 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
60 |
27 |
13 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
66 |
23 |
11 |
| March11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
69 |
20.5 |
10.5 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
64.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16, 2006 |
62 |
26.5 |
11.5 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
63.5 |
24.5 |
12 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
60.5 |
28 |
11.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
70 |
20 |
10 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
64.5 |
22 |
13.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
61.5 |
26.5 |
12 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
56.5 |
30 |
13.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
61 |
28 |
11 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
59.5 |
29 |
11.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
58 |
30 |
12 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
59.5 |
27.5 |
13 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
58.5 |
28 |
13.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
58.5 |
28.5 |
13 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
59.5 |
28.5 |
12 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
58 |
29.5 |
12.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
58 |
28.5 |
13.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
46 |
39.5 |
14.5 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. |
The
Greens |
Family
First |
One
Nation |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
42(2.5) |
42.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
43(1.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
4 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
45 (2) |
39 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
43.5 (1.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
42.5 (2) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
41.5 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
6 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
41.5 (4) |
42 |
2 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
39 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1.5 |
5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4 |
44 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
39.5 (3) |
41.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
3 |
0.5 |
7 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
34.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
42 (3.5) |
38.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
39.5 (2.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
39 (3.5) |
41 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
38.5 (3) |
43 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
43.5 (3) |
38 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
- |
6 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
35.5 (2.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
38.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
39.5 (4) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
10.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
39 (3.5) |
43 |
2 |
8 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
42 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40 (3) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
6 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
43 (3.5) |
39.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
44 (3.5) |
38.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
39 (2) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
5 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
38.5 (2) |
42 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| April 22/21 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (3) |
39 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
42 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
6 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
42 (3.5) |
41 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
4 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
39.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
42 (3) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
45 (2.5) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
40 (2.5) |
42 |
2 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
3 |
1 |
3.5 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
39 (2) |
42.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
38 (2.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
1 |
4.5 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
39 (3) |
42 |
2 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
40.5 (3.5) |
41.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
5 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
41.5 (3.5) |
40.5 |
1.5 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
40.5 (2.5) |
40.5 |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
41.5 (3) |
41 |
1.5 |
9 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
34.5 (3) |
50 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
| April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| May 14/15, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50 |
50 |
| June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49 |
51 |
| July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005 |
47 |
53 |
48 |
52 |
| August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005 |
51 |
49 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| September 10/11, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 17/18, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 5/6, 2005 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
46 |
54 |
| November 12/13, 2005 |
50 |
50 |
51 |
49 |
| November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
43 |
57 |
| December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| December 17/18, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
| January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
46 |
54 |
| January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
50 |
| February 4/5, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| February 25/26 & March 4/5 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
50 |
50 |
| March 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
51 |
49 |
| March 25/26 & April 1/2, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 8/9 & April 15/16 , 2006 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
| April 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| May 6/7, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 13/14, 2006 |
50 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
| May 20/21 & 27/28, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| June 3/4 & 10/11, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| June 17/18 & 24/25, 2006 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
51 |
| July 1/2 & 8/9, 2006 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| July 15/16, 2006 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
52 |
48 |
| July 22/23 & 29/30, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 5/6 & 12/13, 2006 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| August 19/20 & 26/27, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
46 |
54 |
| September 2/3 & 9/10, 2006 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
45 |
55 |
| September 16/17 & 23/24, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47 |
53 |
| September 30/October 1 & 7/8, 2006 |
45 |
55 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| October 14/15 & 21/22, 2006 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
53 |
| October 28/29 & November 4/5, 2006 |
48 |
52 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| November 11/12 & 18/19, 2006 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
47 |
53 |
| November 25/26 & December 2/3, 2006 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| December 9/10, 2006 |
40 |
60 |
41 |
59 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
Oct 28/29 & Nov 4/5 |
Nov 11/12 & 18/19 |
Nov 25/26 & Dec 2/3 |
Dec 9/10 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats# |
44.5 |
55.5 |
30 |
70 |
30 |
70 |
31 |
69 |
|
The Greens |
19.5 |
80.5 |
17.5 |
82.5 |
16.5 |
83.5 |
22 |
78 |
|
Family First# |
50.5 |
49.5 |
47 |
53 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
66.5 |
33.5 |
|
One Nation# |
34.5 |
65.5 |
38 |
62 |
55 |
45 |
64 |
36 |
|
Independent/Other |
49 |
51 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
26 |
74 |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Labor leaps as Rudd rockets (December 15, 2006)
As reported in the Crikey daily newsletter:
Christian Kerr writes:
Primary support for the ALP leapt 9% in the week following Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership, according to the latest Morgan Poll.
Labor’s primary support has risen to 50% (up 12.4% since the 2004 election), while primary support for the Coalition dropped 7% to 34.5% (down 11.9% from 2004).
With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, Labor leads the two-party preferred vote 59 to 41%.
46% of respondents — down 12 — think the Coalition will win the next federal election, 39.5% — up 11 — think Labor win and 14.5% (up one point)) can’t say.
Pollster Gary Morgan says:
Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have changed the electoral scene, John Howard and his L-NP team now have a fight on their hands.
The last Morgan Poll to have Labor’s primary vote on 50% was taken between January 25 and February 1 1986.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 7% (down two), Family First 2.5% (up one), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1%(unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%).
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 4118 is taken from Computer Report No. 2164 |
