Australia: January Consumer Confidence Up 6.6 Points To 124.3
| Article No. 448 -
January 14, 2006 |
In January, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was up 6.6 points to 124.3, from 117.7 in December. The latest result is 13.5 points higher than the January average of 110.8, but 8.9 points lower than a year ago.
The main driver of this increase in confidence is the question of whether now is a good time to buy. Sixty-four percent (up 11% since December, and up 3% from the January 2005 figure) of Australians say now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture and 12% (down 6%) say now is a bad time to buy major household items.
Gary Morgan says:
“Consumer Confidence has risen in January — as it has for the past ten years. This is a great sign for Retailers, with the proportion of Australians saying now is a good time to buy major household items up 3% from this time last year.”
In January, the proportion of Australians expecting good economic times over the next five years was up 5% to 36%, with the proportion of Australians expecting bad economic times down 6% to 20%. Expectations of good economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months were unchanged at 41%, with 21% (down 2%) expecting bad economic conditions over the coming year.
In terms of their own financial situation and prospects, 31% (down 3%) of Australians said their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, while 26% (down 1%) said they are now worse off. Looking ahead, 42% (up 2%) expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 14% (down 3%) expect to be worse off.
For further information:
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,062 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekend of January 7/8, 2005.
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
126.7 |
| 2005 |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
119.2 |
| 2006 |
124.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
124.3 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
110.8 |
110.3 |
108.2 |
107.3 |
108.8 |
105.1 |
104.1 |
108.3 |
104.6 |
106.1 |
104.4 |
104.6 |
106.6 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,141 |
1,250 |
1,181 |
1,074 |
1,092 |
1,070 |
1,038 |
1,077 |
1,033 |
1,114 |
1,003 |
1,083 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
21 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
27 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
15 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
47 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
39 |
39 |
35 |
40 |
|
|
worse off |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
20 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
36 |
35 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
52 |
50 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
42 |
36 |
28 |
32 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
15 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
28 |
39 |
32 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
38 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
- |
18 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
41 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
28 |
31 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
27 |
28 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
-4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
61 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
61 |
57 |
52 |
50 |
53 |
53 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
11 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
50 |
47 |
32 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
47 |
43 |
38 |
29 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,062 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
31 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
42 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
21 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
36 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
16 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
64 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
12 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
52 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
124.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
|
