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The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is down 14.4 points in August to 103.7 — the lowest Confidence rating since April 2001 (103.6).

The latest Consumer Confidence Rating of 103.7 is 4.6 points below the August average of 108.3, and 13.4 points below the 2006 average (117.1).

The main driver behind the sharp decrease in consumer confidence is fading expectations of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. Expectations of good economic conditions in Australia over the coming year were down 13% to 29%, while 38% (up 13%) expect bad economic conditions over the coming year.

The proportion of Australians expecting good economic times over the next five years is down 4% to 29%; whilst the proportion of Australians expecting bad economic times over the next five years is up 3% to 26%.

There is a significant decrease in the proportion who consider now is a good time to buy major household items. Forty-six per cent (down 11%) of Australians consider now a good time to buy, whilst 27% (up 11%) say now is a bad time to buy major household items.

However, Australians’ confidence in their own financial situation and prospects only changed slightly from July — 30% (down 2%) say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, while 34% (up 3%) say they are now worse off.

Looking ahead, 35% (down 5%) expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 26% (up 7%) expect to be worse off.

Gary Morgan says:

“The large fall in Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence should be a concern given the recent 25 basis points interest rate rise, which is the second rise in three months.

“If there is another rate rise before the end of the year, Consumer Confidence may well fall below 100 for the first time in years. With Consumer Confidence below 100 the L-NP Government would have a difficult time with next years Federal Election due to high fuel prices and widespread concern with the new IR legislation.”

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,048 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekend of August 5/6, 2006. In WA, 84 interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 because face-to-face interviewing was deferred due to a Southern WA cyclone.

For further information:

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Yearly Average
1973			119.2			117.0			108.4			103.8	112.1
1974			103.2			95.6			90.6			92.2	95.4
1975			114.0			104.2			100.8			103.0	105.5
1976	113.6		107.0	110.2		107.0	105.6		108.0	108.8	101.2		107.7
1977	104.2		98.6	101.6		103.8	99.4		105.0	104.4	109.4		103.3
1978	119.2		114.8	110.8		109.6	101.6		91.2	104.4	103.6		106.9
1979	110.2		106.2	109.4		92.6	90.2		99.4	97.6	98.8		100.6
1980	98.8		100.8	97.4		101.6	98.2		104.4	109.8	106.4		102.2
1981	113.4		111.8	101.8		100.8	95.0		92.4	98.2	98.0		101.4
1982	92.4		91.8	93.6		92.2	80.4		84.6	81.2	75.2		86.4
1983	87.8		97.4	96.0		95.4	98.2		100.6	106.4	113.2		99.4
1984	124.6		120.8	120.8		115.6	116.6		118.2	117.8	114.6		118.6
1985	114.8		110.2	99.4		98.0	100.8		106.8	107.8	94.8		104.1
1986	105.4		103.8	94.6	94.8	91.6	79.8	79.8	78.8	89.8	85.6	88.8	90.3
1987	90.4	88.0	86.8	90.8	91.8	93.4	98.6	96.4	94.8	104.0	87.2	93.0	92.9
1988	100.4	98.8	103.6	106.2	104.0	104.0	107.6	108.2	112.4	108.8	104.2	105.8	105.3
1989	105.0	94.6	88.4	88.4	87.4	72.8	73.0	78.8	82.0	79.0	81.0	80.0	84.2
1990	101.6	95.6	83.4	88.3	84.7	83.1	79.6	83.9	75.6	71.4	73.1	71.3	82.6
1991	78.5	85.4	85.0	87.2	87.7	88.6	98.1	95.2	93.3	95.8	91.1	83.0	89.1
1992	93.6	95.9	96.2	105.4	101.6	97.7	95.4	96.9	96.8	101.2	93.6	92.9	97.3
1993	100.8	100.4	105.9	102.3	102.2	96.2	96.6	100.8	90.2	103.5	111.9	108.5	101.6
1994	120.5	127.5	125.7	127.7	125.2	128.0	127.6	123.8	123.6	124.6	118.1	118.0	124.2
1995	112.3	112.4	113.9	114.7	112.0	112.4	110.2	115.5	111.7	116.2	114.3	111.9	113.1
1996	116.7	119.1	123.7	121.5	118.8	117.8	112.3	114.4	113.2	111.3	113.4	113.2	116.3
1997	119.2	115.1	116.2	112.5	114.2	115.5	110.7	111.7	112.4	112.8	111.6	110.6	113.5
1998	117.8	116.0	114.9	110.2	114.4	109.8	107.6	111.1	111.0	113.9	114.2	114.7	112.8
1999	122.1	121.8	122.5	119.6	122.5	122.2	118.2	122.8	122.3	119.6	122.8	122.2	121.6
2000	122.3	119.9	112.9	116.6	112.0	108.7	114.8	119.1	115.8	115.6	110.3	112.3	115.0
2001	119.9	109.5	106.2	103.6	107.4	108.6	115.3	116.4	120.9*	106.8	109.4	113.3	111.4
2002	124.8	123.0	122.3	123.2	124.0	116.4	123.4	119.9	122.1	117.2	114.0	109.6	120.0
2003	122.5	113.4	109.9	120.8	127.0	122.4	123.2	122.4	123.2	121.2	124.2	120.4	120.9
2004	126.0	126.8	130.4	124.4	125.0	125.6	128.9	127.6	126	128.9	124.8	125.5	126.7
2005	133.2	132.0	121.5	119.4	119.5	118.8	116.8	120.6	114.3	105.4	110.6	117.7	119.2
2006	124.3	124.5	124.4	120.1	106.8	115.1	118.1	103.7^					117.1
Monthly Average	110.8	111	108.6	107.7	108.7	105.4	104.6	108.3	104.6	106.1	104.4	104.6	106.6
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. ^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2005		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,141	1,250	1,181	1,074	1,092	1,070	1,038	1,077	1,033	1,114	1,003	1,083
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	36	36	35	32	34	32	31	36	32	32	31	34
	worse off	21	21	24	26	28	24	30	27	30	32	30	27
QUESTION 1 difference		15	15	11	6	6	8	1	9	2	0	1	7
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	47	46	44	43	42	41	41	40	39	39	35	40
	worse off	11	11	15	15	15	16	20	16	21	26	20	17
QUESTION 2 difference		36	35	29	28	27	25	21	24	18	13	15	23
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	52	50	39	38	36	35	35	42	36	28	32	41
	bad times	14	15	23	26	24	25	27	23	28	39	32	23
QUESTION 3 difference		38	35	16	12	12	10	8	19	8	-11	-	18
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	41	41	36	33	33	30	30	32	30	25	28	31
	bad times	14	13	16	22	21	23	22	24	25	29	26	26
QUESTION 4 difference		27	28	20	11	12	7	8	8	5	-4	2	5
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	61	58	50	53	55	55	61	57	52	50	53	53
	bad time to buy	11	11	18	14	14	12	14	14	14	21	18	18
QUESTION 5 difference		50	47	32	39	41	43	47	43	38	29	35	35
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		133.2	132.0	121.5	119.4	119.5	118.8	116.8	120.6	114.3	105.4	110.6	117.7
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2006		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,062	1,163	1,125	1,165	1,149	1,144	1,215	1,132
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	31	35	34	34	30	32	32	30
	worse off	26	25	25	27	35	30	31	34
QUESTION 1 difference		5	10	9	7	-5	2	1	-4
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	42	44	45	43	37	41	40	35
	worse off	14	14	14	16	22	19	19	26
QUESTION 2 difference		28	30	31	27	15	22	21	9
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	41	44	42	41	32	38	42	29
	bad times	21	21	20	25	34	26	25	38
QUESTION 3 difference		20	23	22	16	-2	12	17	-9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	36	35	34	34	30	29	33	29
	bad times	20	20	19	23	25	24	23	27
QUESTION 4 difference		16	15	15	11	5	5	10	2
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	64	59	58	55	45	51	57	46
	bad time to buy	12	14	13	15	24	17	16	27
QUESTION 5 difference		52	45	45	40	21	34	41	19
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		124.3	124.5	124.4	120.1	106.8	115.1	118.1	103.7
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Subscription Service

Subscription to the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating — Australia’s leading monthly indicator of Australia’s economic confidence — is available.

Subscription is available at three levels:

1. Press Release Service     Mailed: $375 (+ $37.50 GST)
                                         Total = $412.50

                                        Faxed: $500 (+ $50.00 GST)
                                          Total = $550.00

Each month, subscribers will receive a copy of the press release which includes the calculated Consumer Confidence Rating figure and the results to each of the individual Consumer Confidence questions.

Alternatively, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating press releases are available on Roy Morgan Research’s Internet Website (www.roymorgan.com) free of charge.

2. Full Subscription (including geographic and demographic sub-group analysis):
                                         $13,125.00 (+ $1,312.50 GST)
                                          Total = $14,437.50

Full subscribers receive the Consumer Confidence press release, results of each of the individual Consumer Confidence questions, and a fully described laser printed computer report showing results within State, age and sex groups, occupation groups, the Roy Morgan Values Segments, etc.

The laser printed computer report is not available on Roy Morgan Research’s Internet Website.

3. Full Subscription (including one sub-group analysis):

                                          $2,862.50 (+ $286.25 GST)
                                           Total = $3,148.75

Subscribers to the one sub-group analysis service includes analysis of one specific sub-group (eg. state, region, sex, age, occupation, work status, etc., or the Roy Morgan Values Segments).

The one geographic or demographic sub-group analysis is not available on Roy Morgan Research’s Internet Website.

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