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Sixty-four per cent of electors approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader ahead of 56% (up 4% since July 2006) who approve of the job Mr Howard is doing as Prime Minister, a special telephone Morgan Poll on January 4-7 finds.
 
Mr Rudd’s approval rating is 25% higher than it was for previous ALP Leader Kim Beazley when the same question was asked in July 2006.  Just 11% disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, and 25% still can’t say whether they approve or disapprove.  A relatively high 39% (down 3%) disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job (5% can’t say).

However, more electors say Mr Howard (50%) is a better Prime Minister than Mr Rudd would be (42%), while 8% can’t say.  Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was highest with L-NP supporters (90%).  Support for Mr Rudd was highest with ALP supporters (82%) followed by Greens supporters (71%).

Electors were also asked whether they approve of the job Peter Costello is doing as Treasurer and whether they approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Deputy Opposition Leader. 

A resounding 62% approve of way Mr Costello is handling his job as Treasurer, 28% disapprove and 10% can’t say.  Mr Costello’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (85%) while disapproval is highest with Greens supporters (49%).

A majority of electors (56%) approve of way Ms Gillard is handling her job as Deputy Leader of the Opposition, 10% disapprove and a significant 34% can’t say.  Ms Gillard’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (69%) followed by Greens supporters (57%).  Disapproval is highest with L-NP supporters (15%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Leadership is an important factor in deciding who swinging voters support.  This Morgan Poll is significant for two reasons; not only does John Howard have a high approval rating, Peter Costello does too — this is not always the case for a Treasurer. 

“Labor strategists will be pleased Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard have high approval ratings.  However, while the latest two Morgan Polls have the ALP well ahead (59% cf. 41%), this lead will evaporate as the election draws closer — the result of which will depend largely on the economy and how people feel about their own economic security.  In an economy where 81% of employees say their job is safe and 63% of employees say they could find a new job quickly if they became unemployed it will be hard for the Rudd/Gillard combination to convince voters to switch back to the old IR laws.”

Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research looked at reasons why electors said John Howard or Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister:

A large number of electors who said Mr Howard is a better Prime Minister than Mr Rudd would be cited his experience as the main reason for their decision:

“Howard has a track record of something like 11 years as Prime Minister whereas Rudd is unproven.”

“Howard because he has been there so long.  Rudd is an unknown quantity so far.”

“Howard has got the experience and I don’t think he’s done anything too drastic.  I think the country is going pretty well.”

“Considering the stuff Howard has gone through (while being Prime Minister), he’s far more experienced in dealing with tough situations.”

“Rudd is an unknown entity and I would like to see him with a bit more experience.”

“Rudd hasn’t had a chance yet to prove himself — he isn’t experienced enough.”

Other reasons for supporting Howard included his statesman like qualities, as well as his ability to guide Australia through a period of international unrest:

“I think Howard has shown that he can act in the best interests of Australia, particularly in relation to fiscal policy and international relations.  I believe he has put Australia on the world map and his opinion is respected internationally.”

“Howard is a good family man.  He made an impression on me after 9/11 when he stood up in Parliament to give sympathy on behalf of Australia.”

“It’s my opinion that Australia has not had a better Prime Minister than Howard.”

“I think Howard is a strong leader and has a better value system (than Rudd).  He has done well with the economy.”

Electors who said Mr Rudd would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard cited disillusionment with the current Government over a number of issues, primarily the war in Iraq:

“I like Rudd’s style and I agree with his opposition to the IR laws.  I believe he will introduce social equality and I agree with his stance on Iraq.  He will put balance back in the system in light of the IR laws, Iraq, ‘non-core’ promises and social disintegration.”

“Hopefully Rudd can get us out of the mess in Iraq and hopefully he can bring a bit of morality back into Australian politics as there has been a moral decline.  The Government has impinged on Australians human rights and I don’t like the way they have treated the Muslim community.”

“Howard has been there for a while and Rudd will bring a new perspective to the job.”

“I think Howard is a dishonest person, as well as being unfair towards workers.  Basically, the rich are getting richer — he’s only increasing the gap between the haves and have-nots.”

Many Rudd supporters are excited about the energy and enthusiasm he will bring to the position of Prime Minister if Labor wins this year’s Federal election:

“I think Rudd is young, energetic, measured, talented and doesn’t shoot his mouth off without thinking first.”

“Rudd will bring a change and something new.”

“He is down to earth and appears to know what he is talking about.”

“He is more of a people’s person with values and appears to be honest in what he says.”

Better Prime Minister: Howard vs Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Rudd.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

More electors say Mr Howard (50%) is a better Prime Minister than Mr Rudd would be (42%), while 8% can’t say.  Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was highest with L-NP supporters (90%).  Support for Mr Rudd was highest with ALP supporters (82%) followed by Greens supporters (71%).

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul	Jan			The	Ind/
	2005*	2005*	2006*	2006*	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	50	90	15	17	41
Rudd	33	30	26	34	42	5	82	71	29
Other/can’t say	10	11	13	5	8	5	3	12	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

Support for Mr Howard as better Prime Minister was marginally higher with women (50%) than men (49%) and highest of all with voters aged 50+ (57%).  Support for Mr Rudd was higher among men (44%) than women (41%) and highest with those aged 18-24 (52%).

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul	Jan
	2005*	2005*	2006*	2006*	2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	50	49	50	43	43	45	57
Rudd	33	30	26	34	42	44	41	52	42	49	36
Other/can’t say	10	11	13	5	8	7	9	5	15	6	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Fifty-six per cent (up 4% since July 2006) approve of the job Mr Howard is doing as Prime Minister.  Mr Howard’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (93%).  Disapproval is highest with ALP (73%) and Greens supporters (67%).

	Electors 18+												Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13	Jan 4-7			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	56	93	24	26	45
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	39	5	73	67	36
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	2	3	7	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Howard’s approval is higher with women (57%) than men (54%) and highest with those aged 50+ (64%) followed by those aged 25-34 (56%).  Disapproval is highest with those aged 18-24 (55%) followed by those aged 35-49 (48%).

	Electors 18+												Analysis by Sex and Age
	Aug 11/12	Aug 18/19	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13	Jan 4-7
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	47	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	56	54	57	40	56	48	64
Disapprove	44	47	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	39	42	37	55	35	48	32
Can't say	9	6	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	4	6	5	9	4	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Sixty-four per cent of electors approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader.  Mr Rudd’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (75%) followed by L-NP supporters (61%).  Disapproval is highest with Greens supporters (27%).

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22^	Mar 29/30^	Jul 12/13^	Jan 4-7			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	64	61	75	50	49
Disapprove	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	11	12	6	27	9
Can't say	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	25	27	19	23	42
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

Mr Rudd’s approval is higher with men (66%) than women (62%) and highest for those aged 50+ (67%).  Disapproval is highest for those aged 18-24 (19%).

	Electors 18+										Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22^	Mar 29/30^	Jul 12/13^	Jan 4-7
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	64	66	62	56	60	65	67
Disapprove	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	11	10	11	19	12	13	7
Can't say	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	25	24	27	25	28	22	26
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Treasurer

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Costello is handling his job as Treasurer?”

A resounding 62% approve of way Mr Costello is handling his job as Treasurer, 28% disapprove and 10% can’t say.  Mr Costello’s approval is highest with L-NP supporters (85%) while disapproval is highest with Greens supporters (49%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 4-7			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	62	85	45	45	48
Disapprove	28	11	42	49	31
Can't say	10	4	13	6	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Costello’s approval is higher with men (66%) than women (59%) and highest for those aged 50+ (72%).  Disapproval is highest for those aged 18-24 (35%) and 35-49 (33%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan 4-7
	2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	62	66	59	51	54	57	72
Disapprove	28	27	29	35	27	33	24
Can't say	10	7	12	14	19	10	4
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Deputy Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ms Gillard is handling her job as Deputy Leader of the Opposition?”

A majority of electors (56%) approve of way Ms Gillard is handling her job as Deputy Leader of the Opposition, 10% disapprove and a significant 34% can’t say.  Ms Gillard’s approval is highest with ALP supporters (69%) followed by Greens supporters (57%).  Disapproval is highest with L-NP supporters (15%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan 4-7			The	Ind/
	2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	45	69	57	50
Disapprove	10	15	5	14	11
Can't say	34	40	26	29	39
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Mr Gillard’s approval is the same with men and women (both 56%) and highest for those aged 18-24 (68%).  Disapproval is highest for those aged 50+ (12%).

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Jan 4-7
	2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	56	56	68	47	58	55
Disapprove	10	11	10	5	10	10	12
Can't say	34	33	34	27	43	32	33
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted between January 4-7, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross section of 551 electors.

Roy Morgan Detailed Analysis

A detailed analysis of the results is available for $6,800 plus GST (this fee includes the data loaded in Roy Morgan’s Asteroid Software).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:
Gary Morgan:  Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Home +61 3 9419 3242
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 Home +61 3 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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