[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

During the December Quarter, the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate fell 0.2% from 7.3% to 7.1%. The December 2006 figure is down 0.7% from the same time last year (7.8%). The marginal fall reflects a slight decrease in unemployment in regional and rural areas (down 0.9% to 8.1%), and a slight increase in unemployment in capital cities (up 0.2% to 6.6%).

The number of employed Australians grew by 88,000 to 9,792,000 since the September Quarter. The number of full-time employed jumped by 132,000 to 6,700,000, while the number of Australians working part-time fell by 44,000 to 3,092,000.

An estimated 752,000 Australians were looking for work in the December 2006 Quarter — down 15,000 since the September 2006 Quarter. The number of Australians seeking full-time employment in the December Quarter was 428,000 (down 13,000) while 324,000 Australians (down 2,000) were seeking part-time work.

The number of Australians who are now part of the workforce is up 73,000 to 10,544,000.
For the December Quarter Western Australia (4.5%) had the lowest estimated unemployment, followed by New South Wales (6.4%), Queensland (6.6%), Victoria (7.8%), Tasmania (8.3%) and South Australia (12.4%).

The December Quarter Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is based on interviews with 14,936 Australians aged 14 and over face-to-face on the weekends during October-December, 2006.

Gary Morgan:	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine:	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!

/news/papers/2003/20030801/

Marcus L'Estrange listed his many valid concerns in an article originally published in News Weekly.

/resources/pdf/papers/20061203.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimates							The ABS Unemployment Estimates
							% of work force unemployed
	Total looking For work ('000)		% of Work force Unemployed		Total Looking For Work* ('000)		Original		Adjusted*
2000
January	983		10.6		655		7.4		6.9
February	853		9.2		644		7.5		6.7
March	868	(901) **	9.4	(9.7) **	700	(666) **	7.3	(7.4) **	6.9	(6.8) **
April	926		10.1		659		6.8		6.8
May	912		9.8		643		6.7		6.7
June	826	(888) **	8.9	(9.6) **	609	(637) **	6.3	(6.6) **	6.6	(6.7) **
July	870		9.3		610		5.9		6.3
August	856		9.1		624		6.2		6.4
September	869	(865) **	9.4	(9.3) **	614	(616) **	6.4	(6.2) **	6.3	(6.3) **
October	837		9.0		615		6.0		6.3
November	909		9.6		637		6.2		6.6
December	953	(900) **	10.2	(9.6) **	643	(632) **	6.5	(6.2) **	6.6	(6.5) **
2001
January	974		10.4		647		7.2		6.6
February	967		10.4		673		7.6		6.9
March	989	(977) **	10.6	(10.5)**	662	(661) **	7.2	(7.3) **	6.8	(6.8) **
April	970		10.2		669		6.8		6.8
May	948		10.2		676		6.9		6.9
June	908	(942)**	9.7	(10.0)**	681	(675) **	6.7	(6.8) **	6.9	(6.9) **
July	837		8.8		618		6.3		6.3
August	918		9.7		644		6.6		6.6
September	1006	(920) **	10.7	(9.7) **	672	(645) **	6.8	(6.6) **	6.7	(6.5) **
October	914		9.6		697		6.7		7.1
November	889		9.1		661		6.4		6.7
December	1003	(935) **	10.5	(9.8) **	665	(674) **	6.6	(6.6) **	6.7	(6.8) **
2002
January	1075		10.9		693		7.4		7.0
February	926		9.4		653		7.3		6.6
March	841	(947) **	8.9	(9.8)**	622	(656) **	6.7	(7.1) **	6.3	(6.6) **
April	812		8.4		622		6.4		6.3
May	744		7.8		622		6.3		6.3
June	794	(783) **	8.3	(8.2)**	644	(629) **	6.3	(6.3) **	6.5	(6.4) **
July	750		7.6		609		5.6		6.2
August	690		7.3		622		6.0		6.2
September	703	(715) **	7.3	(7.4)**	617	(616) **	5.9	(6.2) **	6.2	(6.2) **
October	748		7.8		599		5.7		6.0
November	716		7.4		617		5.8		6.1
December	730	(731) **	7.7	(7.7) **	628	(615) **	6.1	(5.9) **	6.2	(6.1) **
2003
January	673		7.0		620		6.5		6.1
February	808		8.4		610		6.7		6.0
March	769	(750)**	8.0	(7.8)**	626	(619)**	6.5	(6.6)**	6.2	(6.1)**
April	744		7.7		623		6.2		6.1
May	791		8.2		613		6.1		6.0
June	764	(766)**	8.0	(8.0)**	620	(619)**	5.9	(6.1)**	6.1	(6.1)**
July	795		8.1		621		5.6		6.2
August	774		8.1		594		5.6		5.9
September	761	(776)**	7.8	(8.0)**	590	(602)**	5.8	(5.7)**	5.8	(6.0)**
October	711		7.1		577		5.4		5.7
November	769		7.8		573		5.3		5.6
December	863	(781)**	8.8	(7.9)**	575	(575)**	5.6	(5.4)**	5.6	(5.6)**
2004
January	973		9.5		584		6.2		5.8
February	832		8.4		595		6.6		5.9
March	892	(899)**	8.8	(8.9)**	574	(584)**	5.9	(6.2)**	5.6	(5.8)**
April	846		8.4		574		5.7		5.6
May	786		7.9		561		5.5		5.5
June	826	(819)**	8.5	(8.3)**	575	(570)**	5.5	(5.6)**	5.6	(5.6)**
July	757		7.4		582		5.2		5.7
August	679		6.9		579		5.4		5.7
September	698	(711)**	7.1	(7.1)**	572	(578)**	5.5	(5.4)**	5.6	(5.7)**
October	694		6.9		544		5.0		5.3
November	632		6.4		536		4.9		5.2
December	688	(671)**	6.8	(6.7)**	527	(536)**	5.0	(5.0)**	5.1	(5.2)**
2005
January	775		7.6		532		5.6		5.1
February	715		7.0		533		5.7		5.1
March	753	(748)**	7.5	(7.4)**	540	(535)**	5.4	(5.6)**	5.2	(5.1)**
April	797		7.7		540		5.2		5.1
May	737		7.2		542		5.2		5.1
June	669	(734)**	6.5	(7.1)**	527	(536)**	4.9	(5.1)**	5.0	(5.1)**
July	783		7.6		525		4.6		5.0
August	715		7.0		530		4.8		5.0
September	681	(726)**	6.7	(7.1)**	539	(531)**	5.1	(4.8)**	5.1	(5.0)**
October	709		6.9		548		4.9		5.2
November	834		8.1		538		4.7		5.1
December	864	(801)**	8.5	(7.8)**	546	(544)**	5.1	(4.9)**	5.2	(5.2)**
2006
January	893		8.5		558		5.8		5.3
February	832		7.8		554		5.9		5.2
March	815	(847)**	7.7	(8)**	532	(532)**	5.3	(5.7)**	5.0	(5.2)**
April	753		7.2		542		5.2		5.1
May	695		6.6		521		4.9		4.9
June	626	(691)**	5.9	(6.6)**	529	(531)**	4.8	(5.0)**	4.9	(5.0)**
July	776		7.3		514		4.4		4.8
August	722		7.0		524		4.6		4.9
September	803	(767)**	7.6	(7.3)**	513	(517)**	4.8	(4.6)**	4.8	(4.7)**
October	864		8.2		496		4.3		4.6
November	681		6.5		499		4.3		4.6
December	712	(752)**	6.7	(7.1)**

* Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

Roy Morgan Employment Estimate - detailed

	Total Workforce ('000)		Total employed ('000)		Total looking for work ('000)		% of workforce Unemployed
2000
January	9312		8329		983		10.6
February	9270		8417		853		9.2
March	9227	(9269) **	8359	(8368) **	868	(901) **	9.4	(9.7) **
April	9165		8239		926		10.1
May	9266		8354		912		9.8
June	9277	(9236) **	8451	(8348) **	826	(888) **	8.9	(9.6) **
July	9341		8471		870		9.3
August	9454		8598		856		9.1
September	9211	(9334) **	8342	(8470) **	869	(865) **	9.4	(9.3) **
October	9251		8414		837		9.0
November	9439		8530		909		9.6
December	9314	(9334) **	8361	(8434) **	953	(900) **	10.2	(9.6) **
2001
January	9408		8434		974		10.4
February	9280		8313		967		10.4
March	9320	(9336) **	8331	(9336) **	989	(977) **	10.6	(10.5) **
April	9466		8496		970		10.2
May	9323		8375		948		10.2
June	9344	(9377) **	8436	(8435) **	908	(942) **	9.7	(10.0) **
July	9548		8711		837		8.8
August	9466		8548		918		9.7
September	9414	(9475) **	8408	(8555) **	1006	(920) **	10.7	(9.7) **
October	9438		8524		914		9.6
November	9768		8879		889		9.1
December	9529	(9578) **	8526	(8643) **	1003	(935) **	10.5	(9.8) **
2002
January	9819		8744		1075		10.9
February	9801		8875		926		9.4
March	9470	(9696) **	8629	(8749) **	841	(947) **	8.9	(9.8) **
April	9692		8880		812		8.4
May	9557		8813		744		7.8
June	9563	(9604) **	8769	(8820) **	794	(783) **	8.3	(8.2) **
July	9842		9092		750		7.6
August	9484		8794		690		7.3
September	9637	(9654) **	8934	(8939) **	703	(715) **	7.3	(7.4) **
October	9614		8867		748		7.8
November	9623		8907		716		7.4
December	9429	(9555) **	8699	(8824) **	730	(731) **	7.7	(7.7) **
2003
January	9637		8964		673		7.0
February	9625		8817		808		8.4
March	9565	(9609)**	8796	(8859)**	769	(750)**	8.0	(7.8)**
April	9681		8936		744		7.7
May	9606		8815		791		8.2
June	9551	(9612)**	8787	(8846)**	764	(766)**	8.0	(8.0)**
July	9847		9052		795		8.1
August	9582		8808		774		8.1
September	9729	(9719)**	8968	(8943)**	761	(776)**	7.8	(8.0)**
October	9972		9261		711		7.1
November	9870		9100		769		7.8
December	9799	(9880)**	8936	(9099)**	863	(781)**	8.8	(7.9)**
2004
January	10212		9240		973		9.5
February	9939		9108		832		8.4
March	10089	(10080)**	9197	(9181)**	892	(899)**	8.8	(8.9)**
April	10040		9194		846		8.4
May	9954		9167		786		7.9
June	9701	(9898)**	8875	(9079)**	826	(819)**	8.5	(8.3)**
July	10219		9463		757		7.4
August	9896		9217		679		6.9
September	9791	(9969)**	9094	(9258)**	698	(711)**	7.1	(7.1)**
October	10027		9334		694		6.9
November	9936		9304		632		6.4
December	10120	(10028)**	9432	(9356)**	688	(671)**	6.8	(6.7)**
2005
January	10162		9387		775		7.6
February	10200		9485		715		7.0
March	10086	(10149)**	9333	(9402)**	753	(748)**	7.5	(7.4)**
April	10382		9586		797		7.7
May	10216		9478		737		7.2
June	10288	(10294)**	9620	(9560)**	669	(734)**	6.5	(7.1)**
July	10367		9584		783		7.6
August	10190		9476		715		7.0
September	10103	(10220)**	9423	(9494)**	681	(726)**	6.7	(7.1)**
October	10324		9615		709		6.9
November	10269		9437		832		8.1
December	10182	(10258)**	9319	(9457)**	864	(801)**	8.5	(7.8)**
2006
January	10487		9594		893		8.5
February	10653		9821		832		7.8
March	10518	(10552)**	9703	(9706)**	815	(847)**	7.7	(8.0)**
April	10511		9758		753		7.2
May	10565		9871		695		6.6
June	10609	(10561)**	9987	(9871)**	626	(691)**	5.9	(6.6)**
July	10564		9788		776		7.3
August	10294		9572		722		7.0
September	10555	(10471)**	9751	(9704)**	803	(767)**	7.6	(7.3)**
October	10486		9622		864		8.2
November	10496		9815		681		6.5
December	10651	(10544)**	9939	(9792)**	712	(752)**	6.7	(7.1)**

** Average calculated for previous three months

							% of workforce unemployed
	Total workforce* ('000)		Total employed* ('000)		Total Looking for work* ('000)		Original		Adjusted*
2000
January	9558		8903		655		7.4		6.9
February	9606		8962		644		7.5		6.7
March	9650	(9605) **	8950	(8938) **	700	(666)**	7.3	(7.4) **	6.9	(6.8)**
April	9664		9005		659		6.8		6.8
May	9659		9017		643		6.7		6.7
June	9665	(9663) **	9056	(9026) **	609	(637)**	6.3	(6.6) **	6.6	(6.7) **
July	9728		9118		610		5.9		6.3
August	9766		9142		624		6.2		6.4
September	9725	(9740) **	9111	(9124) **	614	(616)**	6.4	(6.2) **	6.3	(6.3) **
October	9722		9106		615		6.0		6.3
November	9684		9047		637		6.2		6.6
December	9730	(9712) **	9087	(9080) **	643	(632)**	6.5	(6.2) **	6.6	(6.5) **
2001
January	9730		9083		647		7.2		6.6
February	9773		9099		673		7.6		6.9
March	9752	(9752) **	9090	(9091) **	662	(661)**	7.2	(7.3) **	6.5	(6.7) **
April	9800		9140		671		6.8		6.8
May	9818		9152		676		6.9		6.9
June	9830	(9816) **	9149	(9147) **	681	(676)**	6.7	(6.8) **	6.9	(6.9) **
July	9809		9191		618		6.3		6.3
August	9768		9124		644		6.6		6.6
September	9928	(9835) **	9255	(9190) **	672	(672)**	6.8	(6.6) **	6.7	(6.5) **
October	9880		9183		697		6.7		7.1
November	9848		9187		661		6.4		6.7
December	9864	(9864) **	9199	(9189) **	665	(674)**	6.6	(6.6) **	6.7	(6.8) **
2002
January	9955		9263		693		7.4		7.0
February	9936		9283		653		7.3		6.6
March	9972	(9939) **	9304	(9283) **	622	(656)**	6.7	(7.1) **	6.3	(6.6) **
April	9882		9261		621		6.4		6.3
May	9928		9305		622		6.3		6.3
June	9962	(9924) **	9318	(9294) **	643	(628)**	6.3	(7.1) **	6.5	(6.4) **
July	9898		9289		609		5.6		6.2
August	10000		9378		622		6.0		6.2
September	9964	(9954) **	9347	(9338) **	617	(616)**	6.2	(5.9) **	6.2	(6.2) **
October	9962		9363		599		5.7		6.0
November	10040		9424		617		5.8		6.1
December	10104	(10035) **	9476	(9421)**	628	(615) **	6.1	(5.9) **	6.2	(6.1) **
2003
January	10196		9576		620		6.5		6.1
February	10173		9564		610		6.7		6.0
March	10146	(10172)**	9521	(9554)**	626	(619)**	6.5	(6.6)**	6.2	(6.1)**
April	10129		9506		623		6.2		6.1
May	10148		9535		613		6.1		6.0
June	10128	(10135)**	9508	(9516)**	620	(619)**	5.9	(6.1)**	6.1	(6.1)**
July	10102		9481		621		5.6		6.2
August	10129		9535		594		5.6		5.9
September	10144	(10125)**	9555	(9524)**	590	(602)**	5.8	(5.7)**	5.8	(6.0)**
October	10190		9613		577		5.4		5.7
November	10209		9637		573		5.3		5.6
December	10241	(10213)**	9666	(9639)**	575	(575)**	5.6	(5.4)**	5.6	(5.6)**
2004
January	10156		9571		584		6.2		5.8
February	10168		9573		595		6.6		5.9
March	10211	(10178)**	9637	(9594)**	574	(584)**	5.9	(6.2)**	5.6	(5.8)**
April	10271		9696		574		5.7		5.6
May	10216		9655		561		5.5		5.5
June	10221	(10236)**	9646	(9666)**	575	(570)**	5.5	(5.6)**	5.6	(5.6)**
July	10244		9662		582		5.2		5.7
August	10233		9654		579		5.4		5.7
September	10290	(10256)**	9717	(9678)**	572	(578)**	5.5	(5.4)**	5.6	(5.7)**
October	10312		9768		544		5.0		5.3
November	10329		9793		536		4.9		5.2
December	10349	(10330)**	9822	(9794)**	527	(536)**	5.0	(5.0)**	5.1	(5.2)**
2005
January	10402		9870		532		5.6		5.1
February	10422		9890		533		5.7		5.1
March	10488	(10437)**	9948	(9903)**	540	(535)**	5.4	(5.6)**	5.2	(5.1)**
April	10508		9968		540		5.2		5.1
May	10524		9982		542		5.2		5.1
June	10550	(10527)**	10023	(9991)**	527	(536)**	4.9	(5.1)**	5.0	(5.1)**
July	10560		10035		525		4.6		5.0
August	10597		10067		530		4.8		5.0
September	10563	(10573)**	10023	(10042)**	539	(531)**	5.1	(4.8)**	5.1	(5.0)**
October	10551		10002		548		4.9		5.2
November	10569		10030		538		4.7		5.1
December	10582	(10567)**	10035	(10022)**	546	(544)**	5.1	(4.9)**	5.2	(5.2)**
2006
January	10590		10032		558		5.8		5.3
February	10612		10058		554		5.9		5.2
March	10620	(10607)**	10088	(10059)**	532	(548)**	5.3	(5.7)**	5.0	(5.2)**
April	10628		10086		542		5.2		5.1
May	10664		10142		521		4.9		4.9
June	10725	(10672)**	10196	(10141)**	529	(531)**	4.8	(5.0)**	4.9	(5.0)**
July	10756		10242		514		4.4		4.8
August	10789		10265		524		4.6		4.9
September	10799	(10781)**	10285	(10264)**	513	(517)**	4.8	(4.6)**	4.8	(4.7)**
October	10749		10253		496		4.3		4.6
November	10788		10289		499		4.3		4.6
December

* Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

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