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During September — December, support for the Tasmanian ALP Government was down 5% to 42.5% — 6.7% down on its 2006 State election result of 49.2%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.  Support for the Liberal Party was up 6% to 34.5% — 2.7% above its 2006 State election result.

Support for the Greens remained unchanged at 17.5% — 0.9% above its 2006 State election result of 16.6%.

If a Tasmanian State election had been held in the September to December period, the ALP would have won.

Among the minor parties, support for the Tasmania First Party was 1.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Support for the Tasmanian ALP Government was down 5% to 42.5% in the December Quarter, which is 6.7% below its 2006 Election result of 49.2%.

“However, if a Tasmanian State election had been held in the September to December period, the ALP would have won.”

This latest Morgan Poll on Tasmanian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face with 1,201 electors throughout Tasmania on the weekends of September — December, 2006.

Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 3% (up 0.5%) were undecided on voting intention.

For further information:

Tasmanian Voting Intention Summary

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	Liberal	Greens	Dem.	Tas First*#	Ind./Others
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Election August 29, 1998	44.8	38.1	10.2	0.9	5.1	0.9
Election July 20, 2002	52.3	26.9	18.2	0.7	0.2	1.7
Election March 18, 2006	49.2	31.8	16.6	-	0.1	2.3
Morgan Poll
September - December 2002	51.5	24.5	18.5	0.5	1.5	3.5
January - April 2003	52	23	14.5	1.5	3.5	5.5
May - August 2003	50	25	15	1.5	4	4.5
September - December 2003	52.5	23.5	16	1	1.5	5.5
January - April 2004	49	26	16.5	1.5	2.5	4.5
May - August 2004	52.5	25.5	14.5	1	2.5	4
September - December 2004	44.5	31	18	0.5	3	3
January - April 2005	43.5	33	15.5	-	4	4
May - August 2005	46.5	32	15	-	3	3.5
September - December 2005	45.5	27.5	18	-	3	6
January - March 11/12 2006	45.5	28.5	18	-	3.5	4.5
*Before election announced	46.5	33	13	-	2	5.5
*After election announced	44	24	23	-	5	4
January - April 2006	48	28.5	17	-	2	4.5
May - August 2006	47.5	28.5	17.5	-	2	4.5
September - December 2006	42.5	34.5	17.5	-	1.5	4

* The Tasmania First Party was included as an option on Tasmanian State Voting Intention from February 12, 2000.

Note: Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party and the Tasmanian National Party did not stand candidates for the House of Assembly at the July 20, 2002 election. Respondents who indicated that they would vote for either of these parties have been included in the Independent/Other.

Sample: 1,201 electors

Interviewed face-to-face during September - December, 2006.

3% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4127 is taken from Computer Report No. 2167

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