[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

During November — December, primary support for the South Australian ALP Government increased 2.5% to 55.5% — 10.3% above their March 2006 election result of 45.2%. Support for the Liberal Party was down 3.5% to 27%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2006 South Australian election, the ALP is 65% (up 3%); Liberal 35% (down 3%).

If a South Australian State Election were held in November — December, the ALP would have won easily.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 4% (down 1%), Family First 4% (up 0.5%), the Australian Democrats 3% (up 1%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 0.5%).

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP 86% cf. Lib. 14%), One Nation (ALP 77% cf. Lib. 23%), Family First (ALP 53.5% cf. Lib. 46.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP 66% cf. Lib. 34%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of Australian Democrats supporters favoured the L-NP Opposition (Lib. 63% cf. ALP 37%).

This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 470 electors throughout South Australia on the weekends of November and December.

Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?”

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	Liberal	Aust. Dem.#	Family First#^	The Greens#	One Nation#	Ind./ Others#*
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Election February 9, 2002	36.3	40	7.5	2.6	2.4	2.4	8.8
Election March 18, 2006	45.2	34	2.9	5.9	6.5	0.3	5.2

May - June 2003	52	32	4	2	5	1	4.5
July - August 2003	48	30	7	2	6	0.5	6.5
September - October 2003	47	33	6	1.5	4	1.5	7
November - December 2003	45	34.5	7	1	6.5	1	5
January - February 2004	53	32.5	3.5	2	4	1.5	3.5
March - April 2004	49.5	32.5	3.5	2	7.5	0.5	4.5
May - June 2004	51	32.5	4.5	1.5	4.5	2	4
July - August 2004	53	33	3.5	1.5	6	0.5	2.5
September - October 2004	53.5	33	3	4	3.5	0.5	2.5
November - December 2004	50.5	36	2	4	4	0.5	3
January - February 2005	45	38.5	4	4	5.5	0.5	2.5
March - April 2005	44.5	38	4	4	3.5	1	5
May - June 2005	54	33	1	4	4	0.5	3.5
July - August 2005	53	32	3	4	3.5	1	3.5
September - October 2005	50	33	3.5	3.5	4.5	0.5	5
November - December 2005	49	32	4	5.5	4	1	4.5
January - February 2006	50.5	33	3	3.5	4.5	0.5	5
February — March 11/12 2006	50.5	31	3.5	3	6	0.5	5.5
Before election announcement	50.5	31.5	5	3.5	4	-	5.5
After election announcement	50.5	30.5	2	2	8	0.5	6.5
March - April 2006	50	26.5	3	4	7	0.5	9
May - June 2006	48	31.5	2.5	4	4.5	-	9.5
July - August 2006	51.5	27.5	2	4	5.5	0.5	9
September — October 2006	53	30.5	2	3.5	5	0.5	5.5
November - December 2006	55.5	27	3	4	4	0.5	6
* Includes votes for the National Party # Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution. ^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000.

	ALP	Liberal
	%	%
Election February 9, 2002	49.1	50.9
Election March 18, 2006	56.8	43.2
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election
	ALP	Liberal	ALP	Liberal
	%	%	%	%
July - August 2003	60	40	60	40
September - October 2003	59	41	58	42
November - December 2003	58	42	56	44
January - February 2004	62	38	61	39
March - April 2004	61.5	38.5	59	41
May - June 2004	62.5	37.5	60	40
July - August 2004	63	37	60.5	39.5
September - October 2004	61	39	61	39
November - December 2004	59.5	40.5	58	42
January - February 2005	54	46	54	46
March - April 2005	53.5	46.5	54	46
May - June 2005	62	38	61	39
July - August 2005	62	38	60.5	39.5
September - October 2005	62.5	37.5	59.5	40.5
November - December 2005	60.5	39.5	59.5	40.5
January - February 2006	60.5	39.5	59.5	40.5
February — March 11/12 2006	61.5	38.5	61	39
Before election announcement	61.5	38.5	60	40
After election announcement	61.5	38.5	61	39
March - April 2006	63.5	36.5	62	38
May - June 2006	58.5	41.5	59	41
July - August 2006	64.5	35.5	63	37
September — October 2006	53.5	46.5	62	38
November - December 2006	66	34	65	35

	May - Jun 2006		Jul - Aug 2006		Sep - Oct 2006		Nov - Dec 2006
MORGAN POLL	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australian Democrats#	53	47	66	34	66.5	33.5	37	63
Family First#	21.5	78.5	36	64	38	62	53.5	46.5
The Greens #	77	23	100	-	80.5	19.5	86	14
One Nation #	-	-	41.5	58.5	65.5	34.5	77	23
Independent/Other #	52	48	58.5	41.5	70.5	29.5	66	34
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*40%-60%*	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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