In Queensland: ALP Clearly Ahead Of L-NP
| Finding No. 4129 -
January 19, 2007 |
During November — December, primary support for the Queensland Labor Government was 52.5%, while support for the L-NP Coalition was 32.5% (Liberals — 23%, Nationals — 9.5%), the latest Morgan Poll finds.
On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2006 State election, support for the ALP was 60.5%, a significant 21 points ahead of the L-NP (39.5%).
If a Queensland State election had been held in November — December, Labor would have won easily.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 5.5%, Family First 1.5%, One Nation 1.5%, Australian Democrats 1% and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5.5%.
Gary Morgan says:
“Following a comfortable election victory in September last year, the Peter Beattie led Queensland ALP has extended its lead over the Liberal-National Coalition. Primary support for the ALP during November — December (52.5%) is at its highest point since July — August 2005 when it was 53%.
“Liberal Leader Bruce Flegg and Nationals Leader Jeff Seeney will need to work hard to make the L-NP Coalition a credible alternative.”
The preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 80.5% cf. L-NP 19.5%), Family First (ALP — 76.5% cf. L-NP 23.5%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (ALP — 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of One Nation supporters favoured the L-NP Opposition (L-NP — 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%).
The latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,223 electors throughout Queensland on the weekends during November and December, 2006.
Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”
Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
L-NP |
Liberal |
National |
One Nation# |
Aust.
Dem.# |
The
Greens |
Family First# |
Ind./
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election June 13, 1998 |
38.9 |
31.3 |
16.1 |
15.2 |
22.7 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
^ |
3.2 |
| Election February 17, 2001 |
48.9 |
28.5 |
14.3 |
14.2 |
8.7 |
0.3 |
2.5 |
^ |
11.1 |
| Election February 7, 2004 |
47.0 |
35.5 |
18.5 |
17 |
4.9 |
- |
6.8 |
^ |
5.8 |
| Election September 9, 2006 |
46.9 |
37.9 |
20.1 |
17.8 |
0.6 |
- |
8.0 |
1.9 |
4.7 |
| MORGAN POLL |
|
| March - April 2004 |
53 |
33 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
6 |
* |
4.5 |
| May - June 2004 |
56.5 |
30 |
22 |
8 |
2.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
* |
4.5 |
| July - August 2004 |
56 |
31.5 |
22.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
* |
5 |
| September - October 2004 |
52 |
33 |
27 |
6 |
3 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
* |
5 |
| November - December 2004 |
49.5 |
34.5 |
25 |
9.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
6 |
3 |
4.5 |
| January - February 2005 |
51.5 |
32.5 |
22.5 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
| March - April 2005 |
53 |
32 |
24 |
8 |
2 |
0.5 |
6 |
2.5 |
4 |
| May - June 2005 |
51 |
33.5 |
23.5 |
10 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
| July - August 2005 |
53 |
31.5 |
21.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
2 |
5.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
49 |
35.5 |
25 |
10.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
| November - December 2005 |
49.5 |
34.5 |
22.5 |
12 |
2 |
1 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
| January - February 2006 |
48.5 |
34 |
23 |
11 |
2 |
1.5 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
| March - April 2006 |
50 |
34.5 |
23.5 |
11 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4.5 |
| May - June 2006 |
50.5 |
33.5 |
22.5 |
11 |
1.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
3 |
6 |
| July - August 2006 |
49.5 |
36 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
| September 6/7, 2006+ |
45 |
39 |
19 |
20 |
0.5 |
- |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
| November - December 2006 |
52.5 |
32.5 |
23 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
+ Telephone survey
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ Family First was launched in August 2004
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
|
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
| |
% |
% |
|
|
| Election February 7, 2004* |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
|
| Election September 9, 2006* |
54.9 |
45.1 |
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election |
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
| March - April 2004 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60 |
40 |
| May - June 2004 |
65 |
35 |
63 |
37 |
| July - August 2004 |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
| September - October 2004 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59 |
41 |
| November - December 2004 |
58 |
42 |
57 |
43 |
| January - February 2005 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| March - April 2005 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| May - June 2005 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
| July - August 2005 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
| November - December 2005 |
59 |
41 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
58 |
42 |
57 |
43 |
| March - April 2006 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
57.5 |
42.5 |
| May - June 2006 |
60 |
40 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
| July - August 2006 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
| September 6/7, 2006+ |
53 |
47 |
53 |
47 |
| November - December 2006 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
*Malcolm Mackerras' estimate |
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
|
May - Jun 2006 |
Jul - Aug 2006 |
Sept 6/7, 2006 |
Nov - Dec 2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats # |
44 |
56 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
- |
- |
64.5 |
35.5 |
| The Greens |
86 |
14 |
76.5 |
23.5 |
62 |
38 |
80.5 |
19.5 |
| One Nation # |
46.5 |
53.5 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
- |
100 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
| Family First # |
54.5 |
45.5 |
47 |
53 |
42.5 |
57.5 |
76.5 |
23.5 |
| Independent/Other |
51.5 |
48.5 |
67.5 |
32.5 |
75.5 |
24.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
#Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
|
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4129 is taken from Computer Report No. 2169 |
