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During November — December, support for the Western Australian ALP is unchanged at 47%. Support for the L-NP also remained unmoved at 39%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2005 State election, ALP support is 55% (unchanged), a 10 percentage point lead over the L-NP (45%, unchanged).

If a Western Australian State election had been held in November — December, the ALP would have won easily.

Among the minor parties support for the Greens is 6.5% (down 2%), the Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 0.5%), the Christian Democratic Party 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (up 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“During the November — December period, support for ALP Government and the L-NP Opposition remained unchanged. Primary support for the ALP remained at 47%, while the L-NP is steady at 39%.

“Considering the ALP’s 10 point lead on a two-party preferred basis (55% cf. 45%), if a Western Australian State election had been held in November — December, the ALP would have won easily.”

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 82% cf. L-NP — 18%), One Nation (ALP — 79% cf. L-NP — 21%), the Greens (ALP — 78.5% cf. L-NP — 21.5%), Family First (ALP — 57.5% cf. L-NP — 42.5%), and Other Parties and Independent candidates (ALP — 54% cf. L-NP — 46%) favoured the ALP State Government, while the preferences of supporters of the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 83.5% cf. ALP — 16.5%) favoured the L-NP Opposition.

This Morgan Poll on Western Australia State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 555 electors throughout Western Australia on the weekends of November and December, 2007.

Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today, which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

#Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^Family First was launched in August 2004

> The Australian Democrats did not have anyone stand for the Legislative Assembly in 2005

~ The Christian Democratic Party had only a minor percentage of the vote before 2005 and were classed in 'Other Parties and Independent Candidates'

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

**Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

Note: The Western Australian Electoral Commission has not released a Two-Party preferred vote for the February 10, 2001 State Election or the February 26, 2005 State Election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

	May - June 2006		July - August 2006		Sep - Oct 2006		Nov - Dec 2006
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australian Democrats#	83	17	81	19	72.5	27.5	82	18
The Greens #	66	34	76	24	84.5	15.5	78.5	21.5
One Nation #	83.5	16.5	-	100	-	100	79	21
Family First #	26	74	54	46	-	100	57.5	42.5
CDP#	32.5	67.5	17.5	82.5	11	89	16.5	83.5
Independent/Other#	54.5	45.5	63.5	36.5	60	40	54	46

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Note: One Nation Party did not stand candidates for the Legislative Assembly at the December 14, 1996 election.

Sample: 555 electors

Interviewed: November & December 2006

5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4130 is taken from Computer Report No. 2170

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