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The ALP’s dominance over the Coalition Government has decreased marginally during the last fortnight — primary support for the ALP is down 2% to 47% (up 9.4% since the 2004 election), while primary support for the Coalition Government is up 1% to 36.5% (down 9.9% since the 2004 election), the latest Morgan Poll finds.

With preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 57.5% (down 1.5%),  L-NP 42.5% (up 1.5%). 

On the important question of who the electorate ‘think will win’ the next Federal election, 48% (up 2.5%) think the L-NP will win, 38.5% (down 2.5%) think the ALP will win and 13.5% (unchanged) can’t say. 

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 8% (up 1%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 1%), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (up 0.5%).

If an election had been held during the last fortnight, the ALP would have won.

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the L-NP Coalition making up a small amount of ground on the ALP during the last fortnight, the Rudd/Gillard team still holds a significant 15 point lead on a two-party preferred basis (57.5% cf. 42.5%).

“When electors are asked who they ‘think will win’ the next Federal election, 48% (up 2.5%) say the L-NP will win, 38.5% (down 2.5%) say the ALP will win and 13.5% (unchanged) can’t say.  During 2006, while Kim Beazley was Labor Leader, the highest proportion of electors that said the ALP would win the 2007 Federal election was 30%!

"Yesterday’s State Morgan Polls and today’s Federal Morgan Poll show that the ALP currently has a stranglehold on both levels of Government.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”  

Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1%) did not name a party.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on January 6/7 & 13/14, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,997 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• The Catholic Church has become involved in the Government’s multi-million dollar pregnancy counselling contract which aims to reduce the number of abortions in Australia;

• A review of Youth Allowance was initiated; and

• The Victorian Government’s extension to the first home buyers’ grant and cuts to stamp duty took effect.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4132 is taken from Computer Report No. 2172

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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