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During January, primary support for the New South Wales ALP Government fell 2% to 48.5%. Primary support for the L-NP Opposition is up 1% to 35.5%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis (with preferences distributed as they were at the 2003 State Election), the ALP is down 1.5% to 58% — a lead of 16 percentage points over the L-NP (42%, up 1.5%).

If a NSW State Election had been held during January, the ALP would have won easily.

Among the minor parties, primary support for the Greens is 8% (up 2%), Christian Democrats 1.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), Family First 0.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 4.5% (down 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“With a New South Wales election less than two months away, Opposition Leader Peter Debnam has a significant amount of ground to make up if his party is to defeat the ALP.

“Although ALP primary support is down marginally (48.5%, down 2%), it still holds a large lead on a two-party preferred basis (58% cf. 42%).

“If a New South Wales State Election had been held during January, the ALP would have won easily.”

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 94% cf. L-NP — 6%), Family First (ALP — 79% cf. L-NP — 21%), the Christian Democratic Party (ALP — 61% cf. L-NP — 39%), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 78.5% cf. L-NP — 21.5%) favoured the State Government. Supporters of the Australian Democrats (L-NP — 63% cf. ALP — 37%) and One Nation (L-NP — 58.5% cf. ALP — 41.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,391 New South Wales electors during January 2007.

Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed 6% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

For more information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Christian Dems#	Ind./ Others#
Election March 25, 1995	41.3	43.9	2.9	2.6	n/a	+	~	9.3
Election March 27, 1999	42.2	33.7 (8.8)	3.3	3.9	7.5	+	~	9.4
Election March 22, 2003	42.6	34.6 (9.7)	0.9	8.3	1.3	+	~	12.3
Morgan Poll
February 2004	49.5	36(3)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	5.5
March 2004	44	37.5(3.5)	2	8.5	1	+	~	7
April 2004	43.5	37.5(3.5)	1.5	10.5	0.5	+	~	6.5
May 2004	42.5	37.5(3)	2	9.5	1	+	~	7.5
June 2004	40.5	41(3)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
July 2004	44	38 (4)	1.5	10	1	+	~	5.5
August 2004	41.5	40 (2.5)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
September 2004	40	41 (3)	1.5	9	0.5	+	~	8
October 2004	42	43.5 (4.5)	1.5	7	1	+	~	5
November 2004	42.5	40.5 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	+	~	6.5
December 2004	36	44.5 (3)	1.5	9	1.5	+	~	7.5
January 2005	42.5	41.5 (2.5)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	7
February 2005	41.5	42 (3)	1.5	8	0.5	+	~	6.5
March 2005	39.5	43.5 (3)	0.5	9	0.5	+	~	7
April 2005	42	40.5 (2.5)	1.5	7.5	1.5	+	~	7
May 2005	41	42 (3)	2	7.5	0.5	+	~	7
June 2005	42.5	39.5 (2.5)	1	8	0.5	+	~	8.5
July 2005	42	39 (4)	1	7	1	+	~	10
August 2005	48	35.5 (4)	0.5	7.5	1	2	~	5.5
September 2005	43.5	37 (5)	1.5	8	1	1.5	~	7.5
October 2005	43.5	36.5 (3)	1.5	9	1	2	1.5	5
November 2005	43	37 (4)	1.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	2	6
December 2005	43.5	36 (4)	0.5	10.5	1	1.5	1	6
January 2006	43	36.5 (4.5)	1.5	8.5	1	2	1.5	6
February 2006	39	41 (5)	1.5	7	1.5	1.5	2	6.5
March 2006	43	40 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	1	1	4.5
April 2006	42.5	37.5 (2.5)	2	8.5	1	1.5	0.5	6.5
May 2006	42.5	38.5 (4.5)	2	7	1	2	1.5	5.5
June 2006	46	35.5 (3)	2	7	0.5	2.5	1.5	5
July 2006	42.5	41 (4)	1.5	6.5	1	1.5	1.5	4.5
August 2006	49.5	34 (3.5)	1.5	6	0.5	2	0.5	6
September 2006	48	34.5 (2)	1.5	6.5	1	2	1	5.5
October 2006	43	40 (4.5)	1.5	5.5	0.5	1	1	7.5
November 2006	45.5	38 (3.5)	1	6.5	1	1.5	1	5.5
December 2006	50.5	34.5 (3)	1	6	0.5	1	1	5.5
January 2007	48.5	35.5 (4)	1	8	0.5	0.5	1.5	4.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

+ The Family First Vote was first split from the Independent/Other vote in New South Wales in September, 2005

~ The Christian Democratic Party was split from the Independent/Other Vote In New South Wales in October 2005

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
	%	%	%	%
Election March 25, 1995	49	51
Election March 27, 1999	56	44
Election March 22, 2003	56.2^**	43.8^**
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2003 election
February 2004	59.5	40.5	58	42
March 2004	57	43	55	45
April 2004	57	43	55	45
May 2004	56.5	43.5	54.5	45.5
June 2004	53	47	51.5	48.5
July 2004	56.5	43.5	55	45
August 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
September 2004	54.5	45.5	51.5	48.5
October 2004	52.5	47.5	50.5	49.5
November 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
December 2004	48.5	51.5	47.5	52.5
January 2005	53	47	52	48
February 2005	52	48	51.5	48.5
March 2005	51	49	49.5	50.5
April 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
May 2005	53	47	51	49
June 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
July 2005	54.5	45.5	53.5	46.5
August 2005	58	42	58	42
September 2005	55.5	44.5	55	45
October 2005	56.5	43.5	55.5	44.5
November 2005	55.5	44.5	55	45
December 2005	57.5	42.5	55.5	44.5
January 2006	56	44	55	45
February 2006	52	48	51	49
March 2006	54.5	45.5	53	47
April 2006	55.5	44.5	54.5	45.5
May 2006	55.5	44.5	54	46
June 2006	58	42	57	43
July 2006	54	46	52.5	47.5
August 2006	60	40	59.5	40.5
September 2006	59	41	58.5	41.5
October 2006	53	47	53	47
November 2006	55.5	44.5	55	45
December 2006	60.5	39.5	59.5	40.5
January 2006	60.5	39.5	58	42

^Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

** The State Electoral Office of New South Wales has not released a two-party preferred vote from the March 2003 State election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

	October 2006		November 2006		December 2006		January 2006
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Australian Democrats#	51	49	64	36	79	21	37	63
The Greens	83	17	82.5	17.5	88.5	11.5	94	6
One Nation#	26.5	73.5	71	29	54.5	45.5	41.5	58.5
Family First#	65	35	40	60	58.5	41.5	79	21
Christian Democrats#	12	88	15	85	42.5	57.5	61	39
Independent/Other#	55.5	44.5	52.5	47.5	58	42	78.5	21.5

# Results from sample sizes fewer than 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 1,391 electors

Interviewed: January 2007

6.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4136 is taken from Computer Report No. 2175

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