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Prime Minister John Howard would be defeated if the Federal Election were held today. On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support in Bennelong is 55% while support for Liberal (John Howard) is 45%, a special telephone Crikey Morgan Poll, conducted late last week in Bennelong and released today on Crikey.com.au finds.

Overall, 40% of Bennelong electors would vote for Mr Howard (down 9.9% since the 2004 election) compared to 41% for the ALP (up 12.6% since the 2004 election), 11% Greens, 5% Others, and a low 3% undecided.

Key Findings:
• Even in Mr Howard’s own electorate, a higher proportion of electors say Kevin Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (49% cf. 47%).
• More people disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister than those who approve (47% cf. 44%).
• Three-quarters (75%) of Bennelong voters approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader, compared to just 11% who disapprove (14% can’t say).
• Of all Bennelong electors, 38% say John Howard should retire before the Federal Election, compared to 55% who say he should contest his fifth election. Of Liberal voters, only 17% say Mr Howard should retire while 82% say continue.
• Despite the above findings, 51% (58% of men cf. only 45% of women) of Bennelong electors say that Australia is heading in the right direction and more think the L-NP will win (46% L-NP cf. 38% ALP).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today, John Howard would lose his own seat — as Prime Minister Stanley Bruce did in 1929.

“There’s a long time between now and the election, however, the electorate’s concern over issues such as IR, Hicks and Iraq are running against Mr Howard, and combined with Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership, this has had a significant impact on the standing of Mr Howard and the Coalition.

“The ‘shining light’ for Mr Howard is that a majority (51%) of Bennelong electors say that Australia is heading in the right direction and more electors in Bennelong think the L-NP will win the election than those who think the ALP will win (46% cf. 38%).

“The question is: Would Bennelong electors vote for Mr Howard if they thought he would lose?”

Bennelong Voting Intention

	Bennelong		Telephone Morgan Poll
	2004 Election	February 14/15, 2007	Men	Women
	%	%	%	%
ALP	28.4	41	46	36
Liberal	49.9	40	40.5	40
Greens	16.4	11	7	14
Democrats	1.3	1.5	0.5	2
Family First	-	0.5	1.5	-
Independents/ Others	4	3	3.5	3
Undecided	-	3	1	5
Total	100	100	100	100

Bennelong Two-Party Preferred

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	February 14/15, 2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
ALP	55	56	54	75	61	57	46
Liberal	45	44	46	25	39	43	54
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Think will win next Federal Election?

Bennelong electors were asked: “Regardless of who you’d like to win, who do you think will win at the next Federal Election?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46	69	25	48	42
ALP	38	12	64	39	31
Can’t say	16	19	11	13	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	46	51	43	48	51	45	46
ALP	38	38	38	46	38	41	34
Can’t say	16	11	19	6	11	14	20
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Better Prime Minister: Howard v Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Rudd.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

	Australia wide					Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul	Jan	Feb			The	Ind/
	2005*	2005*	2006*	2006*	2007	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	50	47	93	11	27	28
Rudd	33	30	26	34	42	49	6	87	61	51
Can’t say	10	11	13	5	8	4	1	2	12	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

	Australia wide					Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Jan	Sep	Mar	Jul	Jan	Feb
	2005*	2005*	2006*	2006*	2007	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	57	59	61	61	50	47	46	47	31	40	46	54
Rudd	33	30	26	34	42	49	51	47	64	60	50	40
Can’t say	10	11	13	5	8	4	3	6	5	-	4	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

A large number of electors who said Mr Rudd would make a better Prime Minister reasoned that the need for a change was especially important in making their decision.

"I respect Mr Howard but it is time for a change in Government".

"I think we are due for a change. I'd like to see change in management anywhere after people have been there for a long time. I'd say that if the other party were in (Government)".

"Mostly due to the fact that we need a change".

"We could do with some new bloke and Mr Rudd has brains".

"It's time for Howard to give it a rest".

Mr Howard's recent industrial relation reforms were another reason why electors preferred Mr Rudd.

"Not happy with the industrial reforms".

"Have major issues (with) work place relations".

"I am from a working class background. I am a trade’s man and I think that work choices are going to affect my pay and conditions".

"Because he (Mr Rudd) is going to look after the workers, not like Mr Howard has done".

Electors who said Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister believed that his greater experience was an important reason.

"Well, because he has been doing it for so long".

"Ten years' experience".

"I suppose because he has a good track record for the last ten years, and that's important".

"I think he is a man of experience".

"I think he has the track record, Mr Rudd doesn't".

Mr Rudd's unfamiliarity with many electors was seen as another reason why Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister.

"I just don't know too much about the other guy (Mr Rudd)".

"Because he (Mr Howard) is the only one I have heard of".

"If someone new comes along you are not sure of his beliefs or values".

"I don't know anything about Mr Rudd".

Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister: Howard

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Australia wide										Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13	Jan 4-7	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	56	44	86	12	22	25
Disapprove	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	39	47	7	79	70	57
Can't say	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	9	7	9	8	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Australia wide										Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Sep 1/2	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30	Oct 7/8	Nov 3/4	Sep 21/22	Mar 29/30	Jul 12/13	Jan 4-7	Feb 14/15
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	50	51	54	56	53	59	54	49	52	56	44	44	44	34	40	40	51
Disapprove	43	43	38	38	40	34	40	44	42	39	47	49	46	55	51	48	43
Can't say	7	6	8	6	7	7	6	7	6	5	9	7	10	11	9	12	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader: Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Australia wide										Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22^	Mar 29/30^	Jul 12/13^	Jan 4-7	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	64	75	66	87	76	60
Disapprove	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	11	11	19	4	9	15
Can't say	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	25	14	15	9	15	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

	Australia wide										Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Sep 1/2*	Sep 15/16*	Sep 22/23*	Sep 29/30*	Oct 7/8*	Nov 3/4*	Sep 21/22^	Mar 29/30^	Jul 12/13^	Jan 4-7	Feb 14/15
	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2004	2005	2006	2006	2007	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	58	64	55	55	58	47	47	29	39	64	75	82	70	72	78	75	75
Disapprove	30	26	33	34	30	43	42	62	49	11	11	9	13	14	17	5	12
Can't say	12	10	12	11	12	10	11	9	12	25	14	9	17	14	5	20	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

Should John Howard retire?

Respondents were told: “John Howard is 68 in July and later this year will contest his fifth election as Leader of the Coalition.”

They were then asked: “In your opinion, should Mr Howard contest the next Federal election or retire before the Election?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Contest election	55	82	34	46	44
Retire	38	17	57	48	38
Can't say	7	1	9	6	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Contest election	55	58	53	47	65	48	58
Retire	38	38	39	50	33	44	34
Can't say	7	4	8	3	2	8	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Australia heading in the right direction?

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51	78	33	36	28
Wrong direction	34	12	50	54	37
Undecided	15	10	17	10	35
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51	58	45	35	52	51	55
Wrong direction	34	29	39	37	38	36	31
Undecided	15	13	16	28	10	13	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll commissioned by Crikey.com.au, which was conducted on the nights of February 14/15, 2007, with 394 Bennelong electors.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                 Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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