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Special Crikey Morgan Poll: Howard Would Lose Bennelong

Finding No. 4139 - February 19, 2007

Prime Minister John Howard would be defeated if the Federal Election were held today. On a two-party preferred basis, ALP support in Bennelong is 55% while support for Liberal (John Howard) is 45%, a special telephone Crikey Morgan Poll, conducted late last week in Bennelong and released today on Crikey.com.au finds.

Overall, 40% of Bennelong electors would vote for Mr Howard (down 9.9% since the 2004 election) compared to 41% for the ALP (up 12.6% since the 2004 election), 11% Greens, 5% Others, and a low 3% undecided.

Key Findings:
• Even in Mr Howard’s own electorate, a higher proportion of electors say Kevin Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Howard (49% cf. 47%).
• More people disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister than those who approve (47% cf. 44%).
• Three-quarters (75%) of Bennelong voters approve of the job Mr Rudd is doing as Opposition Leader, compared to just 11% who disapprove (14% can’t say).
• Of all Bennelong electors, 38% say John Howard should retire before the Federal Election, compared to 55% who say he should contest his fifth election. Of Liberal voters, only 17% say Mr Howard should retire while 82% say continue.
• Despite the above findings, 51% (58% of men cf. only 45% of women) of Bennelong electors say that Australia is heading in the right direction and more think the L-NP will win (46% L-NP cf. 38% ALP).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today, John Howard would lose his own seat — as Prime Minister Stanley Bruce did in 1929.

“There’s a long time between now and the election, however, the electorate’s concern over issues such as IR, Hicks and Iraq are running against Mr Howard, and combined with Kevin Rudd’s elevation to the Labor leadership, this has had a significant impact on the standing of Mr Howard and the Coalition.

“The ‘shining light’ for Mr Howard is that a majority (51%) of Bennelong electors say that Australia is heading in the right direction and more electors in Bennelong think the L-NP will win the election than those who think the ALP will win (46% cf. 38%).

“The question is: Would Bennelong electors vote for Mr Howard if they thought he would lose?”

Bennelong Voting Intention

 

Bennelong

Telephone Morgan Poll

 

2004 Election

February

14/15, 2007

Men

Women

 

%

%

%

%

ALP

28.4

41

46

36

Liberal

49.9

40

40.5

40

Greens

16.4

11

7

14

Democrats

1.3

1.5

0.5

2

Family First

-

0.5

1.5

-

Independents/ Others

4

3

3.5

3

Undecided

-

3

1

5

Total

100

100

100

100

 

Bennelong Two-Party Preferred

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

February 14/15, 2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

ALP

55

56

54

75

61

57

46

Liberal

45

44

46

25

39

43

54

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Think will win next Federal Election?

Bennelong electors were asked: “Regardless of who you’d like to win, who do you think will win at the next Federal Election?”

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Feb 14/15

The

Ind/

 

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

46

69

25

48

42

ALP

38

12

64

39

31

Can’t say

16

19

11

13

27

Total

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Feb 14/15

           
 

2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

L-NP

46

51

43

48

51

45

46

ALP

38

38

38

46

38

41

34

Can’t say

16

11

19

6

11

14

20

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Better Prime Minister: Howard v Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Rudd.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Rudd?”

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Jan

Sep

Mar

Jul

Jan

Feb

The

Ind/

 

2005*

2005*

2006*

2006*

2007

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Howard

57

59

61

61

50

47

93

11

27

28

Rudd

33

30

26

34

42

49

6

87

61

51

Can’t say

10

11

13

5

8

4

1

2

12

21

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Jan

Sep

Mar

Jul

Jan

Feb

           
 

2005*

2005*

2006*

2006*

2007

2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Howard

57

59

61

61

50

47

46

47

31

40

46

54

Rudd

33

30

26

34

42

49

51

47

64

60

50

40

Can’t say

10

11

13

5

8

4

3

6

5

-

4

6

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Kim Beazley was Leader of the Opposition during this period

A large number of electors who said Mr Rudd would make a better Prime Minister reasoned that the need for a change was especially important in making their decision.

"I respect Mr Howard but it is time for a change in Government".

"I think we are due for a change. I'd like to see change in management anywhere after people have been there for a long time. I'd say that if the other party were in (Government)".

"Mostly due to the fact that we need a change".

"We could do with some new bloke and Mr Rudd has brains".

"It's time for Howard to give it a rest".

Mr Howard's recent industrial relation reforms were another reason why electors preferred Mr Rudd.

"Not happy with the industrial reforms".

"Have major issues (with) work place relations".

"I am from a working class background. I am a trade’s man and I think that work choices are going to affect my pay and conditions".

"Because he (Mr Rudd) is going to look after the workers, not like Mr Howard has done".

Electors who said Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister believed that his greater experience was an important reason.

"Well, because he has been doing it for so long".

"Ten years' experience".

"I suppose because he has a good track record for the last ten years, and that's important".

"I think he is a man of experience".

"I think he has the track record, Mr Rudd doesn't".

Mr Rudd's unfamiliarity with many electors was seen as another reason why Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister.

"I just don't know too much about the other guy (Mr Rudd)".

"Because he (Mr Howard) is the only one I have heard of".

"If someone new comes along you are not sure of his beliefs or values".

"I don't know anything about Mr Rudd".

Approval of Leaders

 

Prime Minister: Howard

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Sep

1/2

Sep

15/16

Sep

22/23

Sep

29/30

Oct

7/8

Nov

3/4

Sep

21/22

Mar

29/30

Jul

12/13

Jan

4-7

Feb

14/15

The

Ind/

 

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

50

51

54

56

53

59

54

49

52

56

44

86

12

22

25

Disapprove

43

43

38

38

40

34

40

44

42

39

47

7

79

70

57

Can't say

7

6

8

6

7

7

6

7

6

5

9

7

9

8

18

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Sep 1/2

Sep 15/16

Sep 22/23

Sep 29/30

Oct 7/8

Nov 3/4

Sep 21/22

Mar 29/30

Jul

12/13

Jan

4-7

Feb

14/15

           
 

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

50

51

54

56

53

59

54

49

52

56

44

44

44

34

40

40

51

Disapprove

43

43

38

38

40

34

40

44

42

39

47

49

46

55

51

48

43

Can't say

7

6

8

6

7

7

6

7

6

5

9

7

10

11

9

12

6

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Opposition Leader: Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal

Voting Intention

 

Sep

1/2*

Sep

15/16*

Sep 22/23*

Sep 29/30*

Oct 7/8*

Nov 3/4*

Sep

21/22^

Mar

29/30^

Jul

12/13^

Jan

4-7

Feb

14/15

   

The

Ind/

 

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

58

64

55

55

58

47

47

29

39

64

75

66

87

76

60

Disapprove

30

26

33

34

30

43

42

62

49

11

11

19

4

9

15

Can't say

12

10

12

11

12

10

11

9

12

25

14

15

9

15

25

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

 

Australia wide

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Sep

1/2*

Sep

15/16*

Sep 22/23*

Sep

29/30*

Oct

7/8*

Nov 3/4*

Sep 21/22^

Mar

29/30^

Jul

12/13^

Jan

4-7

Feb

14/15

           
 

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2004

2005

2006

2006

2007

2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

58

64

55

55

58

47

47

29

39

64

75

82

70

72

78

75

75

Disapprove

30

26

33

34

30

43

42

62

49

11

11

9

13

14

17

5

12

Can't say

12

10

12

11

12

10

11

9

12

25

14

9

17

14

5

20

13

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham was Leader of the ALP

^ Kim Beazley was Leader of the ALP

Should John Howard retire?

Respondents were told: “John Howard is 68 in July and later this year will contest his fifth election as Leader of the Coalition.”

They were then asked: “In your opinion, should Mr Howard contest the next Federal election or retire before the Election?”

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Feb 14/15

The

Ind/

 

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%

%

%

%

Contest election

55

82

34

46

44

Retire

38

17

57

48

38

Can't say

7

1

9

6

18

Total

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Sex & Age

 

Feb 14/15

           
 

2007

Men

Women

18-24#

25-34

35-49

50+

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Contest election

55

58

53

47

65

48

58

Retire

38

38

39

50

33

44

34

Can't say

7

4

8

3

2

8

8

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Australia heading in the right direction?

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

 

Bennelong

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

 

Feb 14/15

   

The

Ind/

 

2007

Liberal

ALP

Greens#

Other#

 

%

%