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A special telephone Crikey Morgan Poll, conducted in Bennelong (February 14/15) and released today on Crikey.com.au finds:

• A majority (62%) think Mr Howard and the Australian Government should ask the American Government to have David Hicks immediately returned to Australia, while 31% say Hicks should remain in US custody to face trial.
• If Hicks is found guilty of the proposed charges against him, 69% say he should be allowed to serve his sentence in Australia (23% say he should not be allowed).
• 64% want Australia’s Iraq forces brought home compared to 29% who say they should continue fighting in Iraq.
• 63% say Prime Minister John Howard was wrong in saying that a victory at next year’s US election by Senator Barack Obama would be welcomed by terrorists because of his plan to withdraw American troops out of Iraq — just 27% say Mr Howard was right.
• 59% disagree with the Government’s industrial relations reforms (only 26% agree).
• A strong majority (67%) say the Federal Government should take control of Australia’s water resources (23% disagree).

Gary Morgan says:

“Prime Minister Howard needs to personally tell US Vice-President Dick Cheney later this week that Hicks must be returned to Australia immediately with formal charges laid — otherwise the case must be dropped.

“A majority of Bennelong electors think the Government should ask the Americans to have David Hicks returned immediately (62%) and 64% want Australia’s Iraq forces brought home. Domestically, 59% disagree with the Government’s industrial relations reforms.

“Mr Howard’s lacklustre result in yesterday’s Crikey Morgan Poll can in part be attributed to discontent from Bennelong electors on a number of issues: David Hicks, Iraq, IR.

“If voters remain on issues such as Hicks, Iraq and IR, Mr Howard may not only find it difficult to win this year’s Federal Election, he may also have trouble winning his own seat of Bennelong!

“Positively for Mr Howard, his policy to take over control of Australia’s water resources from the states is looked upon favourably — 67% say the Federal Government should have control. Also, as reported yesterday, more electors in Bennelong think the L-NP will win the election than those who think the ALP will win (46% cf. 38%).”

David Hicks

Respondents were told: “Australian terror suspect David Hicks has been imprisoned at Guantanamo Bay for more than five years and is still yet to be formally charged with any offence. American authorities have said they intend to charge David Hicks with attempted murder and offering support for terrorism.”

They were firstly asked: “Do you think Mr Howard and the Australian Government should ask the American Government to have David Hicks returned to Australia immediately, or should he remain in American custody to face trial?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Government should ask to have Hicks returned immediately	62	40	76	92	65
Should remain in American custody to face trial	31	51	19	2	26
Can't say	7	9	5	6	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Government should ask to have Hicks returned immediately	62	65	60	66	70	67	56
Should remain in American custody to face trial	31	32	29	26	25	23	38
Can't say	7	3	11	8	5	10	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

They were then asked: “If David Hicks is found guilty of the proposed charges, should he be allowed to serve his sentence in Australia, or not?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Should be allowed to serve sentence in Australia	69	55	78	87	72
Should not be allowed to serve sentence in Australia	23	34	15	9	22
Can't say	8	11	7	4	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Should be allowed to serve sentence in Australia	69	71	68	75	72	75	63
Should not be allowed to serve sentence in Australia	23	21	24	19	25	17	27
Can't say	8	8	8	6	3	8	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

On the question of whether Hicks, if found guilty, could be allowed to serve his sentence in Australia, many respondents expressed concern at his treatment in Guantanamo Bay:
“He has suffered enough already, at the very least he should be able to serve his sentence in Australia.”
“He has been unjustly imprisoned for five years in violation of human rights. He should not be kept any longer there and we should bring him back.”
“The American system is far too tough.”
“I don’t think that he will be treated fairly in America - based on what they are currently doing in Guantanamo Bay, the American system is unfair.”

Other respondents said that, because David Hicks’ alleged crime was against America, he should be forced to serve his sentence there:
“He is being charged in a foreign country so he should have to serve there.”
“He did the crime so he should do the time — it was a crime against the US so they can have him.”
“I think that he can serve his sentence where he was arrested - I don't see why we should have to foot the bill to imprison him.”

Iraq
Respondents were asked: “Do you think we should continue to fight in Iraq or bring our forces back to Australia?”

	Australia wide			Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Vietnam*	Iraq	Iraq	Iraq
	Sep	Mar 9/10	Apr 19/20	Feb 14/15	Liberal	ALP	The Greens#	Ind/ Other#
	1965	2005	2006	2007
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Continue	56	44	32	29	50	16	16	19
Bring them back	28	53	63	64	42	80	79	69
Can’t say	16	3	5	7	8	4	5	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Asked of all Australians aged 21 and over

	Australia wide			Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Vietnam*	Iraq	Iraq	Iraq
	Sep 1965	Mar 9/10 2005	Apr 19/20 2006	Feb 14/15 2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Continue	56	44	32	29	34	26	15	22	28	37
Bring them back	28	53	63	64	61	66	82	73	68	53
Can’t say	16	3	5	7	5	8	3	5	4	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Asked of all Australians aged 21 and over

Many respondents said that the Iraq War is a lost cause, and the Australian Government should pull our troops out:
“So many people are dying, we losing more and more people everyday - we're not going to win.”
“I don’t think the west can win in Iraq - the reality is that it is a lost cause and we should not have gone there in the first place.”
“The problem is within the country and sending the more troops would not really help — we’re making things worse.”
“Our presence is merely stirring more trouble.”

Conversely, many respondents said that the situation in Iraq will worsen if our troops leave:
“I think it will create more of a mess if we bring them back - it will not sort out the problem.”
“Terrorism is increasing — if we leave then they would increase more.”
“Withdrawal will be worse for Iraq than remaining there.”
“We made a bloody mess there; walking away from it will just make a bigger mess.”

Industrial Relations
Respondents were asked: “Do you agree or disagree with the industrial relations reforms?”

	Australia wide		Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	October 12/13	April 5/6	February 14/15			The	Ind/
	2005	2006	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Agree	17	20	26	50	8	10	16
Disagree	49	57	59	26	84	82	66
Can’t say	34	23	15	24	8	8	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Australia wide		Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	October 12/13	April 5/6	February 14/15
	2005	2006	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Agree	17	20	26	31	21	20	22	25	30
Disagree	49	57	59	61	58	63	65	68	51
Can’t say	34	23	15	8	21	17	13	7	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Many people who disagree with the industrial relations reforms said they are unfair employees:
“They put workers in a very bad position — they have lost a lot of rights. I feel quite strongly about the issue.”
“The laws are unfair to the least powerful in society.”
“They favour the rich and the powerful.”
“The reforms are nothing more than a tool by which harsh companies can terrorise workers by putting them on low wages and sack them whenever they want. The laws are a tool to destroy unions.”

Others who disagree with the reforms said the new laws do not provide enough balance between employers and employees:
“There’s too much power on the wrong side of the system — employers.”
“Whether it was intentional or not, people who are working are unable to rock the boat and say what they want to say about their jobs. Some employees may not want to push too hard to get things such as overtime and holidays as they might be afraid about losing their job.”
“The laws are taking away protection against employees whose employers have no regard for their wellbeing. What Howard has done is take away 40 years of progress by splitting Australia in two — it is un-Australian.”

Those who agree with the industrial relations reforms cite the greater flexibility the new laws will provide:
“The laws give a lot of flexibility on both sides — the employers and the employees.”
“They give employers and employees a lot more freedom in their decision making.”
“These laws will loosen up the labour market, which has been dominated by the unions for too long.”

Water: Government control
Respondents were told: “Last month Mr Howard announced a $10 billion Federal Government plan to take control of Australia's water resources. The plan includes a proposal to take control of the Murray-Darling River system from the States. At present, some State Governments are reluctant to give control to the Federal Government.”

They were then asked: “In your opinion, should the Federal Government take control of Australia's water resources, or not?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, take control	67	87	54	51	57
No, should not take control	23	9	32	31	34
Can't say	10	4	14	18	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, take control	67	74	61	58	60	68	71
No, should not take control	23	21	24	34	24	21	21
Can't say	10	5	15	8	16	11	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

The general consensus among those who say the Federal Government should take control of Australia’s water resources is that it will help avoid bureaucracy among State Governments:
“Being centrally controlled, it will reduce the amount of legislation — it makes sense to give one central body control.”
“Historically, the states have never agreed on anything — their coordination of resources is poor, we have the railways as proof!”
“I think the states will only look after their own interest, especially when we are in drought.”
“It should be federally controlled; otherwise the states tend to look after their own interests, not thinking of the bigger issues like the environment as a whole.”

Respondents who said that the State Governments’ should remain in control of Australia’s water resources are wary of giving the Federal Government too much power:
“The current Government can’t be trusted, although I do like the idea of a federal takeover, it’s just that the Liberals are not worth such a responsibility.”
“Quite often when the Federal Government take over, it ends up being privatised. One day the whole system could end up being privatised.”
“It is giving the Federal Government too much control.”

Howard: Obama comments
Respondents were told: “Earlier this week Mr Howard said that a victory at next year's US election by US Democrat Presidential hopeful Senator Barack Obama would be welcomed by terrorists because of his plan to withdraw American troops out of Iraq by March 2008.”

They were then asked: “In your opinion, was Mr Howard right in making these comments, or not?”

	Bennelong	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15			The	Ind/
	2007	Liberal	ALP	Greens#	Other#
	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, right	27	48	12	15	16
No, not right (wrong)	63	36	82	73	81
Can't say	10	16	6	12	3
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Bennelong	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15
	2007	Men	Women	18-24#	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, right	27	29	25	19	30	18	33
No, not right (wrong)	63	66	60	73	56	69	59
Can't say	10	5	15	8	14	13	8
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

On the question of whether Prime Minister John Howard was right in condemning the Iraq policy of Presidential hopeful Barack Obama, many respondents said that Mr Howard should have kept his opinion to himself:
“I think one should concentrate on his policies”.
“I don’t think that it is his place to comment on American policy”.
“Because I don’t think he should have involved himself in American politics”.
“He should just let them make their own decisions.”

However, many respondents supported Howard because they support the Iraq War:
“He's the Prime Minister of our country, and we are at war. He is perfectly entitled to his opinion — If we leave Iraq now, all the sacrifices they've made are going to be given to the terrorists”,
“In effect, pulling troops out of Iraq too soon will cause a civil war - they need more support before we can pull out successfully — so he was right in expressing this opinion” and “I don’t think we should withdrawal — the Iraqis need our presence over there.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll commissioned by Crikey.com.au, which was conducted on the nights of February 14/15, 2007, with 394 Bennelong electors.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                 Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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