Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |  state-of-the-nation-webcast |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases  

In depth analysis of the special telephone Crikey Morgan Poll, conducted in Bennelong (February 14/15) and released this week on Crikey.com.au finds:

Of Bennelong electors who voted for John Howard at the 2004 election but intend to vote Labor at the next Federal Election (7.4% of all Bennelong electors):

• 59% (all Bennelong electors 38%) think Mr Howard should retire before the next Federal Election compared to 34% (all Bennelong electors 55%) who think he should contest the election.

• 83% (all Bennelong electors 59%) disagree with the Government’s industrial relations reforms compared to 10% who agree (all Bennelong electors 26%).

• 73% (all Bennelong electors 49%) think Kevin Rudd would make a better Prime Minister than John Howard (23% compared to 47% of all Bennelong electors).

• 87% (all Bennelong electors 75%) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Opposition Leader compared to 7% (all Bennelong electors 11%) who disapprove.

• 38% (all Bennelong electors 47%) disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister compared to 45% (all Bennelong electors 44%) who approve.

• 56% (all Bennelong electors 38%) think the ALP will win the next Federal election compared to 40% (all Bennelong electors 46%) who think the L-NP will win.

• 87% (all Bennelong electors 51%) would like the ALP to win the next Federal election compared to 7% (all Bennelong electors 40%) who would like deserting the L-NP to win.

• 67% (all Bennelong electors 62%) think the Government should ask the American Government for David Hicks’ immediate return to Australia compared to 33% (all Bennelong electors 31%) who think Hicks should remain in US custody to face trial.

• 27% (all Bennelong electors 29%) think Australian forces should continue to fight in Iraq compared to 66% (all Bennelong electors 64%) who say Australian troops should be returned home.

Gary Morgan says:

“Liberal policy makers need to identify the reasons why former Liberal voters are intending to switch to Labor.

“This analysis of Monday and Tuesday’s special Crikey Morgan Polls identifies the IR reforms as a major turn-off: 83% of Bennelong electors who voted Liberal at the 2004 Federal Election but now intend to vote Labor disagree with the reforms compared to 59% of all Bennelong electors; just 10% of these voters agree with the reforms compared to 26% of all Bennelong electors.

“Of these swinging voters, 59% (all Bennelong electors 38%) think Prime Minister Howard should retire before the next Federal Election compared to a relatively small 34% (all Bennelong electors 55%) who think he should contest the election.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll commissioned by Crikey.com.au, which was conducted on the nights of February 14/15, 2007, with 394 Bennelong electors.

Margin of Error:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                 Office (03) 9224 5213       Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement