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If an election had been held during the last fortnight, the ALP would have won easily.  Now, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 election, the two-party preferred vote is ALP 57% (down 0.5%),  L-NP 43% (up 0.5%), the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Primary support for the ALP is up 1% to 48% (up 10.4% since the 2004 election), while primary support for the Coalition Government is also up 1% to 38% (down 8.4% since the 2004 election).

A higher proportion of electors think the ALP will win the next election than those who think the Coalition Government will be retained (45.5% cf. 40%).

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7% (down 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“For the second Federal Morgan Poll in a row, a higher proportion of electors think Labor will win the next election than those who think the Coalition will be retained (45.5% cf. 40%). 

“Primary support for Labor is up 1% to 48%, while support for the Coalition is also up 1% to 38%.  The ALP leads 57% to 43% on a two-party preferred basis.

“A Morgan Poll commissioned by Crikey earlier this week found that not only will Prime Minister Howard have a fight on his hands to retain Government, he faces an uphill battle to retain his own seat of Bennelong!”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”  

Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

During the period:

• Victoria’s longest running bushfires in the states south east were finally contained;

• Legislation for the Government’s proposed smart card was introduced to parliament; and

• The Federal Government promised an extra $1.5 billion on aged care over five years.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted February 10/11, in which electors gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party:

Coalition Party supporters cited economic management as an important issue: “The interest rates under Labor last time we huge”, “The Liberals are much better economic managers — it’s not all about who can spruik the most about climate change”, “The Liberals have moderate policies. The economy is the best it has ever been, with low unemployment” and “I consider the country to be in a good financial position — we only have 4.5% unemployment so why would we want to change?”

Prime Minister John Howard remains very popular among Coalition supporters: “I like John Howard — he comes across as very fair, he makes the tough decisions and sticks with them”, “I think John Howard has done a fantastic job. He is a quiet achiever — he’s not about image, he just does his job”, “I feel more secure with John Howard’s experience” and “John Howard is the right man for this country.”

Supporters of the ALP cited dissatisfaction with Prime Minister John Howard: “I’ve had enough of John Howard, he is a liar”, “I am anti-nuclear, anti-war and therefore anti-Howard”, “I think John Howard has lost the plot — I am very dissatisfied with the IR laws”, “I am against John Howard’s IR laws, they take too much out of the family-man’s pocket and therefore devalue the family unit” and “I have a profound dissatisfaction with John Howard and his Government — we need to become a more compassionate community.”

Many other electors cited the performance of Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd has convinced them to support the ALP: “I think Kevin Rudd is an honest man”, “I like Kevin Rudd’s industrial relations policies — he is more supportive of the family”, “I like Rudd, I believe he has leadership potential”, “Kevin Rudd seems like he is on the ball”, “The ALP has a good new leader — I like Kevin Rudd, he seems like a nice person and seems human” and “Kevin Rudd is likely to do a better job than John Howard.”

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on February 10/11 & 17/18, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,100 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4142 is taken from Computer Report No. 2178

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