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The first Morgan Poll taken after ‘Burkegate’ (March 3/4) shows support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis unchanged (from the previous weekend - February 24/25) at a record high 61.5%, 38.5% L-NP. 

Primary support for the Coalition Government is at its lowest level since June 2001, 33% (down 13.4% since the 2004 election).

Despite the swarm of publicity and repeated attacks from the Government over Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s meetings with disgraced lobbyist Brian Burke in 2005, primary support for the ALP is down just 1% to 51.5% (up 14.4% since the 2004 election). 

If an election had been held during the last fortnight, the ALP would have won easily.

The only significant change from the weekends either side of ‘Burkegate’ is the proportion of electors who think the ALP will win the next election, now 47.5%, down 5% from 52.5%. Those who think the Coalition Government will be retained jumped 8% from 31.5% to 39.5%.  These latest results are almost the same as the mid-February Morgan Poll. 

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (up 1.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“There are a number of reasons why Kevin Rudd and the ALP should be pleased with the result of this Morgan Poll.  Firstly, despite Kevin Rudd admitting to making a mistake in meeting former WA Premier and disgraced lobbyist Brian Burke, ALP primary support is down just 1% to 51.5% the weekend following the revelations.

“Secondly, Prime Minister Howard’s attempt to prolong his attack on Rudd by asking Human Services Minister Ian Campbell to resign for meeting with Burke last year appears to have failed to have an affect on voting intention.

“Thirdly, electors who think the ALP (47.5%) is going to win the Federal Election once again outnumber those who think the L-NP (39.5%) will retain Government.  The current ALP “think will win” figure (47.5%) is 19% above the 28.5% that thought the ALP would win in the last Morgan Poll as Kim Beazley as Labor leader.

“On a two-party preferred basis the ALP holds a significant 23% lead: ALP 61.5%, L-NP 38.5%.  If an election had been held during the last fortnight, the ALP would have won easily.

“Everyone knows a week is a long time in politics.  While the ALP will be pleased with today’s result, much can happen between now and when the election is held at the end of the year. 

“As I’ve pointed out on many occasions, the election will be fought on who is best to manage the economy — interest rates, taxation, as well as IR — not who talks to Brian Burke!”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?”  

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on February 24/25 & March 3/4, 2007: 1,021 electors on February 24/25 (6.5% did not name a party); 998 electors on March 3/4 (5.5% did not name a party).

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• US Vice-President Dick Cheney met with Prime Minister John Howard, Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd and Defence Minister, Brendan Nelson;

• British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced plans to withdraw 1,600 troops from Iraq; and

• Former ABC journalist Maxine McKew will run against Prime Minister John Howard in the seat of Bennelong at the next federal election.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 4147 is taken from Computer Report No. 2180

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