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On the weekend of March 10/11, despite negative publicity for Labor surrounding the resignation of Shadow Attorney General Kelvin Thomson for providing career criminal Tony Mokbel with a reference, primary support for the ALP is unchanged at 51.5% (up 14.4% since the 2004 election), the latest Morgan Poll finds. 

Primary support for the Coalition Government is at a low 34% (up 1% in a week).

Support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis is down 0.5% to 61%, 22% ahead of the L-NP (39%, up 0.5%). 

If an election had been held during the last week, the ALP would have won easily.

The proportion of electors who think the ALP will win the next election is now 50% (up 2.5%), well ahead of those who think the Coalition Government will be retained (36%, down 3.5%). 

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 7.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2.5% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This result is virtually unchanged from the Morgan Poll taken the weekend before ‘Burkegate’, which indicates that recent events such as Kevin Rudd’s meetings with Brian Burke, as well as Ian Campbell and Kelvin Thomson’s resignations have had little effect on voting intention.  Primary support for the ALP is unchanged at 51.5% while support for the Coalition Government remains low (34%, up 1%).

“The IR laws and dislike for John Howard are two key themes to emerge from Labor supporters during special Roy Morgan Qualitative research.  Economic management was a recurring theme among Liberal supporters.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (unchanged) did not name a party. 

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on March 10/11, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,055 electors.  The face-to-face Morgan Poll is conducted every week.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted March 10/11, in which electors gave reasons for supporting their preferred Party:

Supporters of the Liberal Party cite its economic management - and Labor's ineptitude - as a major reason for their preference:

“I don't trust the Labor Party — they bankrupt everything they touch.”

 “Australia is doing so well at the moment with Liberal. Policies and economic situation is good.”

“Liberals will protect my beliefs and investments in retirement.  Labor will destroy investment.”

“I don't trust Labor's fiscal management.  Labor have only reverse policies, not their own.”

“I own my own business — the economy has been good the last 10 years or so. I agree with Liberal’s WorkChoices.”

“I have far more trust in the Coalition regarding economic management. The ALP has too many ties with the unions.”

“I like Howard’s track-record but I’m swinging at the moment.  Kevin Rudd and his crew are putting forward a good case but they are not quite there on the economy and health.”

Another major attraction for Liberal supporters is John Howard's experience and leadership:

“John Howard has done a very good job.”

“I like John Howard — he is the most honest politician.”

“I think John Howard's not too bad; let him finish what he's doing.”

“Howard's been doing a good job.  I don't have any major complaints about how he’s running the country.”

“I like Howard's policies; he is a good leader.”

“The Liberal Party is hard-working.  John Howard is an honest man.”

“I like Howard, he has done a good job and I don't like the others.”

The unpopularity of Prime Minister John Howard is continuing to sway voters toward the ALP:

“I don’t like John Howard — he just sucks up to George Bush.”

“In the last few years, John Howard has told a lot of lies.”

“I’m voting ALP just to get John Howard out of Canberra.”

“John Howard and his Government will not do anything about climate change — they have more powerful interests pushing them.”

“There has been no democracy with John Howard in charge; our civil liberties have been eroded.”

“I want to get rid of John Howard.”

The Coalition Government’s unpopular industrial relations laws continue to strengthen the Labor Party’s support base:

“I have a great concern over the new IR laws — there is now a huge gap between the haves and the have-nots.”

“People are not safe against the WorkChoices policies of the Liberals.”

“The award (pay) issues that Howard has introduced are unfair to working class people.”

“The ALP has more of a social conscience with regards to IR.”

“John Howard’s WorkChoices show that he is not for the ordinary Australian.”

A number of ALP supporters are excited by the qualities that Kevin Rudd exhibits:

“I like Rudd at the moment — he impresses me.  Howard needs to retire.  I don't like the workplace health reforms that he has brought in.”

“I don't want Howard.  Kevin Rudd is more human and approachable.”

“I like Kevin Rudd. I don't like John or what he's done.  It would be good to see someone new in.”

“Rudd is a breath of fresh air.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• The Federal Government appointed Dr Ziggy Switkowski as the chairman of the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO);

• Labor frontbencher Mr Kelvin Thomson resigned as shadow attorney-general over a reference he wrote seven years ago, for the Melbourne underworld figure Tony Mokbel; and

• Federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd came under fire after it was revealed he had meetings with disgraced former Western Australia Premier, Brian Burke on three separate occasions.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4149 is taken from Computer Report No. 2182

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