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On the weekend of March 17/18, despite negative publicity for the Coalition surrounding the Santo Santoro share scandal, primary support for the L-NP recovered 2% to be at 36% (down 10.4% since the 2004 election), the latest Morgan Poll finds. 

Primary support for the ALP dropped 3% but still remains at a high 48.5% (up 10.9% since the 2004 election).

Support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis is down 2.5% to 58.5%, 17% ahead of the L-NP (41.5%, up 2.5%).  If an election had been held during the last week, the ALP would have won easily.

The proportion of electors who think the ALP will win the next election is 54.5% (up 4.5%), well ahead of those who think the Coalition Government will be retained (30.5%, down 5.5%). 

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 8% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged), and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“It appears the ALP has hit their ‘honeymoon ceiling’ with the latest Morgan Poll showing a small closing of the gap, however, if an election were held now the ALP would still win in a landslide.

“The latest Morgan Poll was taken during Mr Howard's overseas trip, in which he signed a security agreement with Japan and visited Australian troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.

“Disgraced Liberal Senator Santo Santoro, implicated in a share trading scandal, had resigned from Cabinet prior to interviewing, but had not yet resigned from the Senate.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on March 17/18, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,045 electors. The face-to-face Morgan Poll is conducted every week.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

During the period:

• Prime Minister John Howard has signed a historic security agreement with his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe. The two countries will strengthen defence cooperation, with personnel exchanges and training in areas such as humanitarian assistance and peacekeeping;

• The Federal Minister for Ageing Santo Santoro resigned from the frontbench after breaching the ministerial code of conduct over his share ownership.

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4151 is taken from Computer Report No. 2184

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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