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A majority (55%) of Australian electors say John Howard should continue in his position as Prime Minister and contest his fifth Federal election as Liberal leader, 40% say he should retire before the election while 5% can’t say, a special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted late last week and released today on Crikey.com.au finds.

Those who said Mr Howard should retire were asked who they prefer as leader of the Coalition at the next Federal election: 23% said Treasurer Peter Costello, 15% Malcolm Turnbull, 10% Alexander Downer, 7% Tony Abbott, 6% Brendan Nelson, 3% Kevin Andrews, 7% someone else, and 29% can’t say who they would prefer. 

Other key findings:

• 83% of L-NP supporters say Mr Howard should contest the upcoming election compared to just 35% of ALP supporters;
• Support for Mr Howard to contest the election is highest among women (58% women, 51% men) and those aged 50-64 and 65 and over (both 58%). Support for Mr Howard to retire is highest among young Australians aged 18-24 (48%);
• Treasurer Peter Costello is still seen as the Liberal leader-in-waiting — 23% of those who said Mr Howard should retire would prefer Mr Costello as leader; Malcolm Turnbull is next best with 15%. In July last year, a Morgan Poll found 31% preferred Mr Costello as Liberal leader other than John Howard compared to 9% for Mr Turnbull;
• A Morgan Poll taken in Bennelong (February 14/15) found the same proportion of respondents (55%) who said that Mr Howard should contest the next election.

Gary Morgan says:

“After serving as Australian Prime Minister for more than 11 years, a majority of Australian electors (55%) say John Howard should lead the Coalition at the upcoming Federal election — the same proportion as a recent Bennelong-only poll. Two-in-five (40%) electors say Mr Howard should retire before the election: 14% of Coalition supporters say he should retire compared to 59% of Labor supporters and 47% of Greens supporters.

“Treasurer Peter Costello is still seen as the Liberal leader-in-waiting — 23% of those who said Mr Howard should retire would prefer Mr Costello as leader; Malcolm Turnbull is next best with 15%. In July last year, a Morgan Poll found 31% preferred Mr Costello as Liberal leader other than John Howard compared to 9% for Mr Turnbull.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, which was conducted on the nights of March 28/29, 2007, with 581 Australian electors.

For further information:
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Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted in which electors gave reasons for why they said Prime Minister John Howard should contest the next election or retire before the next election:

A significant number of respondents who said they would like Mr Howard to contest the upcoming election said that there is no one better to lead the Liberal Party at present:

“I don’t believe there is anybody to follow in his footsteps because there is no one else of his ability.”

“I don’t think anybody in the Liberal Party can be a replacement for him at the moment.  I think he will run again.”

“He has got plenty of experience.  In my opinion he hasn’t done a bad job.  I think he’s the best person in the Liberal Party at the moment.”

“I don’t see anybody to take his place that has his ability to win the election.”

“As far as the Liberals go, there’s no one else in the party who’d do a better job than him.”

“I think he is the best leader in the country by far.  The financial history of the Liberals gives them another chance and he is probably their best chance.”

A number of respondents who said Howard should be leader at the next Federal election said that age should be no barrier in contesting his fifth election:

“I don’t see age being a barrier.  As long as he has got the drive, and the need to be there, he should do it. “

“I don’t think we should be dictated when a person should retire.  A lot of people of his age have important positions in the world.  If he is mentally able to do it, he should do it.”

“Why shouldn’t he (contest)?  It does not matter what age he is — it depends on the health and capability of the individual.”

“I don’t feel 68 is too old — he seems extremely fit and healthy and seems to have all his faculties.”

A major theme that emerged from among those who said Howard should retire before the next Federal election was “time for a change”:

“I think he’s had his time.  As a leader he has told too many lies.”

“He’s had his day — he’s a proven liar and the apathy of the Australian public is what he feeds off.”

“It is time for a change.  John Howard is great but I would like to see Costello up there.”

“I think it’s time for a change.”

“I think its time for someone else to come in.”

Some of the policies that the Howard Government has adopted in recent times also raised the ire of many respondents who said he should retire:

“I think he’s at the point of leaving, he already missed the point he should retire; all of his policies have turned sour and are going to reflect badly on him.  Examples being Australia fighting in Iraq, immigration and climate change.”

“He is too old and too conservative.  He also tries to please America too much and has also lost touch with families and working environments.”

“I think he has had his time.  He’s done some good things but is starting to lose the plot — he’s not in touch with the average person and with current economic issues affecting families.  According to Howard we have never been better off, but that’s rubbish.  Over the last four years we are now financially worse off than before.”

“I don’t agree with his policies or stances.  Specifically I’m referring to climate change and the environment in general.”

“He’s had his time and is just so stubborn and arrogant — it’s just shocking.  He doesn’t show any leadership on climate change, on Iraq, or on industrial relations.  He just seems to follow America.  It appears he doesn’t have any opinions himself.  The more he is there (as Leader), the worse the Liberals are going to perform.  Howard belongs in a different era.”

Should John Howard retire?

Respondents were told: “John Howard is 68 in July and later this year will contest his fifth election as Leader of the Coalition.”

They were then asked: “In your opinion, should Mr Howard contest the next Federal election or retire before the Election?”

	Bennelong electors	Australian electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 14/15, 2007	Mar 28/29, 2007	L-NP	ALP	Greens	Ind/Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Contest election	55	55	83	35	42	46
Retire	38	40	14	59	47	52
Can't say	7	5	3	6	11	2
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Bennelong electors	Australian electors	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Feb 14/15, 2007	Mar 28/29, 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Contest election	55	55	51	58	46	55	53	58	58
Retire	38	40	42	37	48	37	43	38	35
Can't say	7	5	7	5	6	8	4	4	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

If Howard retires, who should be Coalition leader? 

Respondents who said that Mr Howard should retire before the next Federal election were then asked: “Well, who would you prefer to be Leader of the Coalition at the next Federal election?”

	Australian electors	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	March 2007	L-NP #	ALP	The Greens	Ind./Other
	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	23	46	19	16	20
Turnbull	15	14	18	20	4
Downer	10	-	9	17	24
Abbott	7	6	6	8	15
Nelson	6	-	7	4	7
Andrews	3	-	5	3	-
Someone else	7	-	9	9	-
Can't say	29	34	27	23	30
Total	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Australian Electors	Analysis by Sex and Age
	March 2007	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	23	23	22	34	6	29	16	27
Turnbull	15	20	11	5	6	18	19	23
Downer	10	6	14	7	9	9	16	3
Abbott	7	8	7	7	7	7	7	9
Nelson	6	8	4	7	8	6	6	3
Andrews	3	3	3	-	3	3	5	6
Someone else	7	6	8	5	14	5	10	-
Can't say	29	26	31	35	47	23	21	29
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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